Phrozenbot
Member
+632|7039|do not disturb

Kmarion wrote:

^^ So much for paying attention to the topic and tax cuts.

sergeriver wrote:

Kmarion wrote:


Probably more than that. If you are looking for the impacts of new laws and tax cuts.
You are quite correct.  What I presented to you is what The Economist thinks will happen, that doesn't mean they can't be wrong at all.
If we just look at the recent growth I'd tell you that last quarter the GDP grew at 4.9% .
You mean this hasn't rolled into how the economy is doing well and being under the Bush administration and such?

Cutting taxes is great for giving people more money to purchase things to help stimulate the economy but that capitol is exiting the US, and we still have a lot of debt, namely from, I don't know, the Iraq war? Something also from our most beneficent president?
Kmar
Truth is my Bitch
+5,695|7024|132 and Bush

sergeriver wrote:

Kmarion wrote:

  • Real GDP grew at a strong 4.9 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2007.  The economy has now experienced six years of uninterrupted growth, averaging 2.8 percent a year since 2001.   
  • Real after-tax per capita personal income has risen by 12 percent – an average of more than $3,600 per person – since President Bush took office.   
  • Real wages have risen by 3.6 percent during this Administration.   
  • Over the course of this Administration, productivity growth has averaged 2.6 percent per year.  This growth is well above average productivity growth in the 1990s, 1980s, and 1970s.   
  • The Federal budget deficit is down to 1.2 percent of GDP (in FY07), well below the 40-year average.  Economic growth contributed to a 6.7 percent rise in tax receipts in FY07, following an increase of 11.8 percent in FY06.   
  • U.S. exports in September 2007 were 13.6 percent higher than exports in September 2006.
While fighting two wars, corporate scandals, and major hurricanes mind you.
In 2005 the public debt was 64.7% of GDP According to the CIA's World Factbook, this meant that the U.S. public debt was the 35th largest in the world by percentage of GDP.

The US trade deficit hit a record high of 763.6 billion dollars in 2006, up from 716.7 billion dollars in 2005.

While fighting two wars, corporate scandals, and major hurricanes mind you.
Tax cuts will not affect screwed up trade policies. Stop blurring the line.
Xbone Stormsurgezz
avman633
Member
+116|6787
Nice work, finally someone understands that you assign taxes to people with money, not to the ones without it
sergeriver
Cowboy from Hell
+1,928|7180|Argentina

usmarine2005 wrote:

sergeriver wrote:

usmarine2005 wrote:


I knew the Clinton fanboi would come out eventually.
Did I mention Clinton?  Shut up Hillary.
Oh you were about to and you know it.
Now you read minds?
Phrozenbot
Member
+632|7039|do not disturb

FEOS wrote:

sergeriver wrote:

FEOS wrote:

I thought Real GDP took inflation into account.

Even if it doesn't, the Real GDP growth in the summary table is still greater than the inflation rate for all years through 2012...again, positive growth. Just not robust positive growth.
The Economist thinks the risk of a recession is now seen at 40%.  That's a worrying data.  Maybe it won't happen, but you must concede that Bush didn't handle the economy that well as some people want it to appear.
That means that the Economist sees the risk of two consecutive quarters of negative growth to be 40% at some point in the future. That does not mean that the economy is not growing, or is currently in a negative growth situation.

Yes, it's worrying that one source considers the risk of a recession to be 40%. But that also means that they consider the chances of not having a recession to be 60%...so odds are, according to the one source, that there won't be a recession.

I think people need to concede that this administration didn't handle the economy as poorly as some people want it to appear. The biggest problem we have right now is the housing market...which was driven by market forces, not governmental policy. I'm in total agreement with Kmarion on that one.
The housing market was created with the help of Alan Greenspan keeping interest rates low.
Kmar
Truth is my Bitch
+5,695|7024|132 and Bush

Like I said, I am not fan of Bush. He spends like a desperate crackhead, his border policy is non-existent, he has expanded government incredibly, and he has screwed around with my civil liberties. But when it comes to the economy I call a spade a spade.
Xbone Stormsurgezz
FEOS
Bellicose Yankee Air Pirate
+1,182|6834|'Murka

Phrozenbot wrote:

The housing market was created with the help of Alan Greenspan keeping interest rates low.
Actually, that's not quite right. The housing market issue was created with ARMs, which Greenspan advised against, if memory serves. Those people with fixed-rate mortgages at the rates that the Fed set when Greenspan was chair aren't the ones defaulting. It's the mortgages that brought marginally-qualified buyers in with low entry rates, then jacked them up with the increased interest rates (via ARMs) that were put in place after Greenspan left.
“Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid.”
― Albert Einstein

Doing the popular thing is not always right. Doing the right thing is not always popular
sergeriver
Cowboy from Hell
+1,928|7180|Argentina

FEOS wrote:

sergeriver wrote:

FEOS wrote:

I thought Real GDP took inflation into account.

Even if it doesn't, the Real GDP growth in the summary table is still greater than the inflation rate for all years through 2012...again, positive growth. Just not robust positive growth.
The Economist thinks the risk of a recession is now seen at 40%.  That's a worrying data.  Maybe it won't happen, but you must concede that Bush didn't handle the economy that well as some people want it to appear.
That means that the Economist sees the risk of two consecutive quarters of negative growth to be 40% at some point in the future. That does not mean that the economy is not growing, or is currently in a negative growth situation.

Yes, it's worrying that one source considers the risk of a recession to be 40%. But that also means that they consider the chances of not having a recession to be 60%...so odds are, according to the one source, that there won't be a recession.

I think people need to concede that this administration didn't handle the economy as poorly as some people want it to appear. The biggest problem we have right now is the housing market...which was driven by market forces, not governmental policy. I'm in total agreement with Kmarion on that one.
The economy of the US growing 1%?  That's lame.  He fucked things up, cutting taxes, and of course, fighting his little war on terror.

@Kmarion I don't have a source for this but maybe you can confirm or deny it.  Is it true that most jobs created during Bush presidency were created in the public administration, while there was a small loss in the private field?  I'm not sure of that, I'm just answering.
usmarine
Banned
+2,785|7185

sergeriver wrote:

Now you read minds?
No, just monitor trends.
sergeriver
Cowboy from Hell
+1,928|7180|Argentina

usmarine2005 wrote:

sergeriver wrote:

Now you read minds?
No, just monitor trends.
Well, you failed, I didn't mention him.
Phrozenbot
Member
+632|7039|do not disturb

FEOS wrote:

Phrozenbot wrote:

The housing market was created with the help of Alan Greenspan keeping interest rates low.
Actually, that's not quite right. The housing market issue was created with ARMs, which Greenspan advised against, if memory serves. Those people with fixed-rate mortgages at the rates that the Fed set when Greenspan was chair aren't the ones defaulting. It's the mortgages that brought marginally-qualified buyers in with low entry rates, then jacked them up with the increased interest rates (via ARMs) that were put in place after Greenspan left.
He claimed that real-estate couldn't experience a bubble, and did the Fed warn about banks and their lending standards? He's kept interest rates too low for too long, am I wrong? Either way it was a disaster waiting to happen.
FEOS
Bellicose Yankee Air Pirate
+1,182|6834|'Murka

sergeriver wrote:

The economy of the US growing 1%?  That's lame.  He fucked things up, cutting taxes, and of course, fighting his little war on terror.

@Kmarion I don't have a source for this but maybe you can confirm or deny it.  Is it true that most jobs created during Bush presidency were created in the public administration, while there was a small loss in the private field?  I'm not sure of that, I'm just answering.
1% growth is still positive growth, whether you like it or not. I'm not saying he's been a brilliant President...all I'm saying is that not everything he touches turns to shit, either.

Cutting taxes resulted in increased federal revenue. How can that possibly be interpreted as "fucking up"?
“Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid.”
― Albert Einstein

Doing the popular thing is not always right. Doing the right thing is not always popular
sergeriver
Cowboy from Hell
+1,928|7180|Argentina

FEOS wrote:

sergeriver wrote:

The economy of the US growing 1%?  That's lame.  He fucked things up, cutting taxes, and of course, fighting his little war on terror.

@Kmarion I don't have a source for this but maybe you can confirm or deny it.  Is it true that most jobs created during Bush presidency were created in the public administration, while there was a small loss in the private field?  I'm not sure of that, I'm just answering.
1% growth is still positive growth, whether you like it or not. I'm not saying he's been a brilliant President...all I'm saying is that not everything he touches turns to shit, either.

Cutting taxes resulted in increased federal revenue. How can that possibly be interpreted as "fucking up"?
Well, if you take a look at the deficit, you'll understand that you can't cut taxes and fight a war at the same time.
FEOS
Bellicose Yankee Air Pirate
+1,182|6834|'Murka

Phrozenbot wrote:

FEOS wrote:

Phrozenbot wrote:

The housing market was created with the help of Alan Greenspan keeping interest rates low.
Actually, that's not quite right. The housing market issue was created with ARMs, which Greenspan advised against, if memory serves. Those people with fixed-rate mortgages at the rates that the Fed set when Greenspan was chair aren't the ones defaulting. It's the mortgages that brought marginally-qualified buyers in with low entry rates, then jacked them up with the increased interest rates (via ARMs) that were put in place after Greenspan left.
He claimed that real-estate couldn't experience a bubble, and did the Fed warn about banks and their lending standards? He's kept interest rates too low for too long, am I wrong? Either way it was a disaster waiting to happen.
1994
Not Greenspan, but a warning none the less (2000)
2001: Not Greenspan, but a FRB Governor

But is it really the FRB's job to tell financial institutions who they can and can't lend money to? No, it's not. The Fed sets inter-bank loan rates, which those banks then use to set their lending rates to consumers. Who those banks choose to lend to--outside of discriminatory practices--is really none of the government's concern.
“Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid.”
― Albert Einstein

Doing the popular thing is not always right. Doing the right thing is not always popular
Pug
UR father's brother's nephew's former roommate
+652|6965|Texas - Bigger than France
Serge,
You need to focus on "the economy would have been better had Bush not" done whatever...

...GDP includes the deficit & trade deficit
...Real GDP from the Economist includes the price index (aka inflation adjustment)
...Kmarion has posted the trends, all positive
...The stuff you posted to refute Kmarion's points are actually components of the trends he posted
...The US has a strong economy, a slight recession will not sink the ship.  #1 depending on the indicator, but there's not much difference at the top, right?
...Some growth = growth.

Scaremongerer
FEOS
Bellicose Yankee Air Pirate
+1,182|6834|'Murka

sergeriver wrote:

FEOS wrote:

sergeriver wrote:

The economy of the US growing 1%?  That's lame.  He fucked things up, cutting taxes, and of course, fighting his little war on terror.

@Kmarion I don't have a source for this but maybe you can confirm or deny it.  Is it true that most jobs created during Bush presidency were created in the public administration, while there was a small loss in the private field?  I'm not sure of that, I'm just answering.
1% growth is still positive growth, whether you like it or not. I'm not saying he's been a brilliant President...all I'm saying is that not everything he touches turns to shit, either.

Cutting taxes resulted in increased federal revenue. How can that possibly be interpreted as "fucking up"?
Well, if you take a look at the deficit, you'll understand that you can't cut taxes and fight a war at the same time.
But again...the deficit, as a percentage of the GDP, is smaller than in the past. Your argument about tax cuts doesn't make sense in light of the facts: federal tax revenues increased after the cuts. That means that the government made more money than before the tax cuts.
“Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid.”
― Albert Einstein

Doing the popular thing is not always right. Doing the right thing is not always popular
sergeriver
Cowboy from Hell
+1,928|7180|Argentina

FEOS wrote:

Phrozenbot wrote:

FEOS wrote:


Actually, that's not quite right. The housing market issue was created with ARMs, which Greenspan advised against, if memory serves. Those people with fixed-rate mortgages at the rates that the Fed set when Greenspan was chair aren't the ones defaulting. It's the mortgages that brought marginally-qualified buyers in with low entry rates, then jacked them up with the increased interest rates (via ARMs) that were put in place after Greenspan left.
He claimed that real-estate couldn't experience a bubble, and did the Fed warn about banks and their lending standards? He's kept interest rates too low for too long, am I wrong? Either way it was a disaster waiting to happen.
1994
Not Greenspan, but a warning none the less (2000)
2001: Not Greenspan, but a FRB Governor

But is it really the FRB's job to tell financial institutions who they can and can't lend money to? No, it's not. The Fed sets inter-bank loan rates, which those banks then use to set their lending rates to consumers. Who those banks choose to lend to--outside of discriminatory practices--is really none of the government's concern.
Well, I agree with you.  That certainly didn't help.
Phrozenbot
Member
+632|7039|do not disturb

FEOS wrote:

sergeriver wrote:

The economy of the US growing 1%?  That's lame.  He fucked things up, cutting taxes, and of course, fighting his little war on terror.

@Kmarion I don't have a source for this but maybe you can confirm or deny it.  Is it true that most jobs created during Bush presidency were created in the public administration, while there was a small loss in the private field?  I'm not sure of that, I'm just answering.
1% growth is still positive growth, whether you like it or not. I'm not saying he's been a brilliant President...all I'm saying is that not everything he touches turns to shit, either.

Cutting taxes resulted in increased federal revenue. How can that possibly be interpreted as "fucking up"?
People are exiting the dollar, and we are supposed to pay a lot of people back a lot of money. I don't think Bush is to blame fully, but this war hasn't helped. The Euro is way too attractive to keep investing in the dollar, because people like China (and others) are realizing that they are just keeping us afloat, and don't expect getting their money back anytime soon. And there is enough Euros in circulation to make it the world standard.
Pug
UR father's brother's nephew's former roommate
+652|6965|Texas - Bigger than France
Some of it has to do with the fact that more foreign investment is going into developing nations instead of on US soil.
Phrozenbot
Member
+632|7039|do not disturb

FEOS wrote:

Phrozenbot wrote:

FEOS wrote:


Actually, that's not quite right. The housing market issue was created with ARMs, which Greenspan advised against, if memory serves. Those people with fixed-rate mortgages at the rates that the Fed set when Greenspan was chair aren't the ones defaulting. It's the mortgages that brought marginally-qualified buyers in with low entry rates, then jacked them up with the increased interest rates (via ARMs) that were put in place after Greenspan left.
He claimed that real-estate couldn't experience a bubble, and did the Fed warn about banks and their lending standards? He's kept interest rates too low for too long, am I wrong? Either way it was a disaster waiting to happen.
1994
Not Greenspan, but a warning none the less (2000)
2001: Not Greenspan, but a FRB Governor

But is it really the FRB's job to tell financial institutions who they can and can't lend money to? No, it's not. The Fed sets inter-bank loan rates, which those banks then use to set their lending rates to consumers. Who those banks choose to lend to--outside of discriminatory practices--is really none of the government's concern.
Well you are right (and thank you for those links I'm reading them now +1), but the system has lead to people taking loans beyond their means. I guess this is where personal responsibility takes more of a role: don't take loans you can't afford, no matter how attractive those low interest rates may be. But if the Fed warns banks, they shouldn't expect to get bailed out when they take huge loses.

But Citigroup got cash a infusion from Abu Dhab. It has helped the dollar but I think it was too little too late. But is it right that someone like Citigroup gets bailed out, but not the average Joe?
Kmar
Truth is my Bitch
+5,695|7024|132 and Bush

It's predatory lending that caused this housing crisis. Greedy incompetent business folks who can't understand why people with a history of not paying their debt's are getting foreclosed on. They were drooling over the potential money earned when the housing market was booming. Two years later they are asking for a bailout and are being forced to close shop.
Xbone Stormsurgezz
Graphic-J
The Artist formerly known as GraphicArtist-J
+196|6549|So Cal

Kmarion wrote:

An editorial from the WSJ http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119786208643933077.html
Per the IRS
https://i9.tinypic.com/819lggj.gif
Every Democrat running for President wants to raise taxes on "the rich," but they will have to do something miraculous to outtax President Bush. Based on the latest available tax data, no Administration in modern history has done more to pry tax revenue from the wealthy.
...
"The rich pay higher taxes"
And why is that a bad thing? lol
https://i44.tinypic.com/28vg66s.jpg
unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+2,072|7195|PNW

GraphicArtist J wrote:

Kmarion wrote:

An editorial from the WSJ http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119786208643933077.html
Per the IRS
http://i9.tinypic.com/819lggj.gif
Every Democrat running for President wants to raise taxes on "the rich," but they will have to do something miraculous to outtax President Bush. Based on the latest available tax data, no Administration in modern history has done more to pry tax revenue from the wealthy.
...
"The rich pay higher taxes"
And why is that a bad thing? lol
Because one of the Democratic platforms has been that the current administration's giving the richest people in America gargantuan income tax breaks.

If I tried those rates in Caesar III, I'd be thrown out of my city.

Last edited by unnamednewbie13 (2007-12-19 13:41:10)

FEOS
Bellicose Yankee Air Pirate
+1,182|6834|'Murka

Phrozenbot wrote:

Well you are right (and thank you for those links I'm reading them now +1), but the system has lead to people taking loans beyond their means. I guess this is where personal responsibility takes more of a role: don't take loans you can't afford, no matter how attractive those low interest rates may be. But if the Fed warns banks, they shouldn't expect to get bailed out when they take huge loses.

But Citigroup got cash a infusion from Abu Dhab. It has helped the dollar but I think it was too little too late. But is it right that someone like Citigroup gets bailed out, but not the average Joe?
Personal responsibility is the key. Don't buy what you can't afford. Don't buy what you can afford now, but won't be able to afford later.

I wouldn't say that Citi got such a good deal...what was their interest rate? Like 11%?
“Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid.”
― Albert Einstein

Doing the popular thing is not always right. Doing the right thing is not always popular
Spearhead
Gulf coast redneck hippy
+731|7113|Tampa Bay Florida
Kmarion, while I know you know probably a lot more than me on this topic, things aren't so clear and plain cut.

My moms best friend teaches economy at Eckerd College, and she's a hardcore democrat.  I'm sure she'd have plenty to dispute with what's going on....

Until we see definitive results, this will not even go beyond just a bunch of political hackery.  Of course the rich pay more taxes under Bush, if they're getting richer.  And the whole Clinton thing... so Reagan and Bush 1 fixed the economy, then when Clintons in office he's enjoys bragging rights for what the others did, but then when Bush takes office and the economy starts sucking its Clintons fault again? 

I realize I could be completely wrong with everything I've said in this thread, but we are nothing more than arm chair economists on this one, much like we like to play armchair generals of foreign policy, and armchair scientists when debating global warming.  Anyway I'd just like to point that out, since so many on these forums are criticized for saying what they think about stuff they may and may not know. 

K, thats all I have.

Last edited by Spearhead (2007-12-19 14:20:05)

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