sergeriver
Cowboy from Hell
+1,928|7180|Argentina

Pug wrote:

sergeriver wrote:

And you are worrying me.  If the World grows at 5-7% in average, and you grow at 1.8%, you are, in terms of comparisson, not growing.  Further more, if you have an inflation of 2.7%, then you can say you didn't grow, in fact your economy is decreasing in real terms.
Ummm...GDP includes inflation.
Ummm, GDP considers inflation but as far as I know it includes investment, consumption, spending and trade balance.
Kmar
Truth is my Bitch
+5,695|7024|132 and Bush

To corralate the two you really need to look at PPP. Real dollars = what I can buy.
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sergeriver
Cowboy from Hell
+1,928|7180|Argentina

FEOS wrote:

sergeriver wrote:

And you are worrying me.  If the World grows at 5-7% in average, and you grow at 1.8%, you are, in terms of comparisson, not growing.  Further more, if you have an inflation of 2.7%, then you can say you didn't grow, in fact your economy is decreasing in real terms.
Positive or negative growth isn't determined by comparing to other economies. It is determined by comparing the economy's growth with the number zero. If the number you get is positive, the economy has positive growth. If it is negative, the economy has negative growth. If it is zero, then economy has no growth or loss.
That's not quite right.  The economy tends to grow, the World average is between 5-7 aprox.  If you grow for several years between 1-3, and your inflation is 2.5-3 you'll find you are not growing.
FEOS
Bellicose Yankee Air Pirate
+1,182|6834|'Murka

I thought Real GDP took inflation into account.

Even if it doesn't, the Real GDP growth in the summary table is still greater than the inflation rate for all years through 2012...again, positive growth. Just not robust positive growth.
“Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid.”
― Albert Einstein

Doing the popular thing is not always right. Doing the right thing is not always popular
Pug
UR father's brother's nephew's former roommate
+652|6965|Texas - Bigger than France
"Real GDP per capita" - GDP per population = standard of living.

US is in 4th.  If we experience a 20% drop, we'll be in 15th (assuming the 20% drop in US economy causes no influence in the World economy).
sergeriver
Cowboy from Hell
+1,928|7180|Argentina

Kmarion wrote:

To corralate the two you really need to look at PPP. Real dollars = what I can buy.
That's correct, but to measure growth you need at least 2-3 years to make a trend.
sergeriver
Cowboy from Hell
+1,928|7180|Argentina

Pug wrote:

"Real GDP per capita" - GDP per population = standard of living.

US is in 4th.  If we experience a 20% drop, we'll be in 15th (assuming the 20% drop in US economy causes no influence in the World economy).
The thing is how that GDP is distributed.
usmarine
Banned
+2,785|7185

Are we still talking about the OP?
sergeriver
Cowboy from Hell
+1,928|7180|Argentina

FEOS wrote:

I thought Real GDP took inflation into account.

Even if it doesn't, the Real GDP growth in the summary table is still greater than the inflation rate for all years through 2012...again, positive growth. Just not robust positive growth.
The Economist thinks the risk of a recession is now seen at 40%.  That's a worrying data.  Maybe it won't happen, but you must concede that Bush didn't handle the economy that well as some people want it to appear.
Kmar
Truth is my Bitch
+5,695|7024|132 and Bush

sergeriver wrote:

Kmarion wrote:

To corralate the two you really need to look at PPP. Real dollars = what I can buy.
That's correct, but to measure growth you need at least 2-3 years to make a trend.
Probably more than that. If you are looking for the impacts of new laws and tax cuts.
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DIR_Diver
Member
+1|7015
Heres an article that explains incomes in the US and why the poor are actually getting richer


http://www.townhall.com/columnists/Thom … _confusion
sergeriver
Cowboy from Hell
+1,928|7180|Argentina

Kmarion wrote:

sergeriver wrote:

Kmarion wrote:

To corralate the two you really need to look at PPP. Real dollars = what I can buy.
That's correct, but to measure growth you need at least 2-3 years to make a trend.
Probably more than that. If you are looking for the impacts of new laws and tax cuts.
You are quite correct.  What I presented to you is what The Economist thinks will happen, that doesn't mean they can't be wrong at all.
Kmar
Truth is my Bitch
+5,695|7024|132 and Bush

sergeriver wrote:

FEOS wrote:

I thought Real GDP took inflation into account.

Even if it doesn't, the Real GDP growth in the summary table is still greater than the inflation rate for all years through 2012...again, positive growth. Just not robust positive growth.
The Economist thinks the risk of a recession is now seen at 40%.  That's a worrying data.  Maybe it won't happen, but you must concede that Bush didn't handle the economy that well as some people want it to appear.
Why in the world would I say that. Aside from the housing market, which was a screw up in the private sector. November was the 51 consecutive month we had job growth.
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Phrozenbot
Member
+632|7039|do not disturb

Kmarion wrote:

Negative, look at the numbers yourself. The economy has grown on nearly every possible level. That doesn't happen when the majority of the population is spiraling into economic peril.
The housing, auto-mobile, financial, and machinery sectors are all worse than recession. The economy is in a recession, yes even if stocks happen to be going up. The stock market is not going up because of the economy, it is because these excess dollars we endlessly print are trying to find a home, as James Turk says in this video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2pVUR8eS8k
(some interesting info throughout the video, but skip to 3:15 to get to the point, and yes that guy has a terrible haircut lol)

Ben Bernake will print dollars until there are no more trees (more dollars means the value of the dollar gets diluted), and countries like China have to buy our treasury bonds (debt) to help keep inflation low (and it is artificially low), but most major countries I've seen are cutting back on how much they invest, or are considering cutting back on how much they are going to by our t-bonds and are diversifying their investments (moving from dollars to euros, the yen, SEKs or other currencies). If things keep going the way they are, which is the US accumulating $1 trillion in debt every 15 months, then there could be some serious trouble ahead soon than we thought, or the government and wall street would like to tell you.

Last edited by Phrozenbot (2007-12-19 12:06:30)

Kmar
Truth is my Bitch
+5,695|7024|132 and Bush

^^ So much for paying attention to the topic and tax cuts.

sergeriver wrote:

Kmarion wrote:

sergeriver wrote:

That's correct, but to measure growth you need at least 2-3 years to make a trend.
Probably more than that. If you are looking for the impacts of new laws and tax cuts.
You are quite correct.  What I presented to you is what The Economist thinks will happen, that doesn't mean they can't be wrong at all.
If we just look at the recent growth I'd tell you that last quarter the GDP grew at 4.9% .
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sergeriver
Cowboy from Hell
+1,928|7180|Argentina

Kmarion wrote:

sergeriver wrote:

FEOS wrote:

I thought Real GDP took inflation into account.

Even if it doesn't, the Real GDP growth in the summary table is still greater than the inflation rate for all years through 2012...again, positive growth. Just not robust positive growth.
The Economist thinks the risk of a recession is now seen at 40%.  That's a worrying data.  Maybe it won't happen, but you must concede that Bush didn't handle the economy that well as some people want it to appear.
Why in the world would I say that. Aside from the housing market, which was a screw up in the private sector. November was the 51 consecutive month we had job growth.
Again, you are looking at just one indicator.  That doesn't mean he did well.  Take a look at your GDP, your deficit, he did a bad job.  You had the strongest economy in the World before this guy took the office.
sergeriver
Cowboy from Hell
+1,928|7180|Argentina

Kmarion wrote:

^^ So much for paying attention to the topic and tax cuts.

sergeriver wrote:

Kmarion wrote:


Probably more than that. If you are looking for the impacts of new laws and tax cuts.
You are quite correct.  What I presented to you is what The Economist thinks will happen, that doesn't mean they can't be wrong at all.
If we just look at the recent growth I'd tell you that last quarter the GDP grew at 4.9% .
Ok, you are the optimist.  Lol.
usmarine
Banned
+2,785|7185

sergeriver wrote:

You had the strongest economy in the World before this guy took the office.
I knew the Clinton fanboi would come out eventually.
Kmar
Truth is my Bitch
+5,695|7024|132 and Bush

sergeriver wrote:

Kmarion wrote:

sergeriver wrote:


The Economist thinks the risk of a recession is now seen at 40%.  That's a worrying data.  Maybe it won't happen, but you must concede that Bush didn't handle the economy that well as some people want it to appear.
Why in the world would I say that. Aside from the housing market, which was a screw up in the private sector. November was the 51 consecutive month we had job growth.
Again, you are looking at just one indicator.  That doesn't mean he did well.  Take a look at your GDP, your deficit, he did a bad job.  You had the strongest economy in the World before this guy took the office.
Which deficit? The National debt or the trade deficit?
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sergeriver
Cowboy from Hell
+1,928|7180|Argentina

usmarine2005 wrote:

sergeriver wrote:

You had the strongest economy in the World before this guy took the office.
I knew the Clinton fanboi would come out eventually.
Did I mention Clinton?  Shut up Hillary.
usmarine
Banned
+2,785|7185

sergeriver wrote:

usmarine2005 wrote:

sergeriver wrote:

You had the strongest economy in the World before this guy took the office.
I knew the Clinton fanboi would come out eventually.
Did I mention Clinton?  Shut up Hillary.
Oh you were about to and you know it.
Kmar
Truth is my Bitch
+5,695|7024|132 and Bush

usmarine2005 wrote:

sergeriver wrote:

usmarine2005 wrote:


I knew the Clinton fanboi would come out eventually.
Did I mention Clinton?  Shut up Hillary.
Oh you were about to and you know it.
Just look at the last years of Clinton and the first year of Bush and try to tell me the economy wasn't pulled out of the tanker. If we are in a recession now we must have been heading into a depression when Willy left office
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Kmar
Truth is my Bitch
+5,695|7024|132 and Bush

  • Real GDP grew at a strong 4.9 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2007.  The economy has now experienced six years of uninterrupted growth, averaging 2.8 percent a year since 2001.   
  • Real after-tax per capita personal income has risen by 12 percent – an average of more than $3,600 per person – since President Bush took office.   
  • Real wages have risen by 3.6 percent during this Administration.   
  • Over the course of this Administration, productivity growth has averaged 2.6 percent per year.  This growth is well above average productivity growth in the 1990s, 1980s, and 1970s.   
  • The Federal budget deficit is down to 1.2 percent of GDP (in FY07), well below the 40-year average.  Economic growth contributed to a 6.7 percent rise in tax receipts in FY07, following an increase of 11.8 percent in FY06.   
  • U.S. exports in September 2007 were 13.6 percent higher than exports in September 2006.
While fighting two wars, corporate scandals, and major hurricanes mind you.
Xbone Stormsurgezz
FEOS
Bellicose Yankee Air Pirate
+1,182|6834|'Murka

sergeriver wrote:

FEOS wrote:

I thought Real GDP took inflation into account.

Even if it doesn't, the Real GDP growth in the summary table is still greater than the inflation rate for all years through 2012...again, positive growth. Just not robust positive growth.
The Economist thinks the risk of a recession is now seen at 40%.  That's a worrying data.  Maybe it won't happen, but you must concede that Bush didn't handle the economy that well as some people want it to appear.
That means that the Economist sees the risk of two consecutive quarters of negative growth to be 40% at some point in the future. That does not mean that the economy is not growing, or is currently in a negative growth situation.

Yes, it's worrying that one source considers the risk of a recession to be 40%. But that also means that they consider the chances of not having a recession to be 60%...so odds are, according to the one source, that there won't be a recession.

I think people need to concede that this administration didn't handle the economy as poorly as some people want it to appear. The biggest problem we have right now is the housing market...which was driven by market forces, not governmental policy. I'm in total agreement with Kmarion on that one.
“Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid.”
― Albert Einstein

Doing the popular thing is not always right. Doing the right thing is not always popular
sergeriver
Cowboy from Hell
+1,928|7180|Argentina

Kmarion wrote:

  • Real GDP grew at a strong 4.9 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2007.  The economy has now experienced six years of uninterrupted growth, averaging 2.8 percent a year since 2001.   
  • Real after-tax per capita personal income has risen by 12 percent – an average of more than $3,600 per person – since President Bush took office.   
  • Real wages have risen by 3.6 percent during this Administration.   
  • Over the course of this Administration, productivity growth has averaged 2.6 percent per year.  This growth is well above average productivity growth in the 1990s, 1980s, and 1970s.   
  • The Federal budget deficit is down to 1.2 percent of GDP (in FY07), well below the 40-year average.  Economic growth contributed to a 6.7 percent rise in tax receipts in FY07, following an increase of 11.8 percent in FY06.   
  • U.S. exports in September 2007 were 13.6 percent higher than exports in September 2006.
While fighting two wars, corporate scandals, and major hurricanes mind you.
In 2005 the public debt was 64.7% of GDP According to the CIA's World Factbook, this meant that the U.S. public debt was the 35th largest in the world by percentage of GDP.

The US trade deficit hit a record high of 763.6 billion dollars in 2006, up from 716.7 billion dollars in 2005.

While fighting two wars, corporate scandals, and major hurricanes mind you.

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