No. Well, I will ammend that. The US will not bring back the draft if the military can do anything in the world to prevent it. About the only circumstance I can even visualize it is in the event of a direct invasion of the US mainland by some serious badass forces. Think China.
Why do I think that, you may ask? Well, speaking as an American citizen (and one who signed up for selective service when I turned 18, way, way, way back in 1990.) as well as a war vet, I like to think I know a bit about the subject.
I notice that most of the people who posted 'yes' are not from America. So, unless you have focused more attention on American politics and policies than is really healthy for you, you are just guessing what you want to happen.
Yes, historically, the US, as well as every other country on Earth, used draftees. Some of those beautiful European countries of yours STILL draft or conscript your soldiers. The US, on the other hand, has an all volunteer military, and have noted the differences between that and our former force including draftees.
As a question of motivation, it is difficult to make a draftee into an effective modern soldier. Not for any reason of intelligence, but in attitude. Being a soldier now is not like being a soldier in WWII. It takes a lot more 'know-how' to operate as a modern soldier. Classes to take. If a draftee is nursing a grudge, there is no way to MAKE them learn how to be a solider. The military would have to re-enforce draconian enforcement policies again. And that is counter productive.
Also, in combat you have to trust the person in the foxhole next to you. And it is hard to trust someone who is resentful of the entire reason of being in the army. Not to mention the probability of increased drug use by draftees, it would ruin the force readiness of any unit they are in.
And the final reason is technology. most of the focus of all that wonderful technology that the US military brings to the table is to present the most force possible with as little manpower as possible. WWI and WWII style fighting went out the door with the invention of the tactical nuclear weapon. No longer will you find a hilltop with an entire battalion or brigade of infantry on it. Nuclear weapons have forced the dispersion of troops to prevent a juicy Target of Opportunity to the enemy with TAc Nukes.
Besides, the reserves and the National Guards were formed for the precise reason of having trained personnel ready at hand without having to keep them as active military. By activating all of the reserves and NG at once, the size of the military, especially the army, would just about quadruple. That is what they are there for, anyway, and take less time to get up to speed as training draftees would.
What is more likely is that the military would shift from a rotation schedule to a 'duration of the conflict' deployment. There is not very much of the military deployed at any one time. Once you include pre- and post-deployment, the number grows a lot. But barely a third of the army is in Iraq, if that. If someone knows current units, let me know, k?
Last edited by imortal (2007-07-28 23:51:29)