Poll

How Will Iraq Be in The Middle Future?

It will remain as one nation43%43% - 7
It will split into 2 countries12%12% - 2
It will split into 3 countries43%43% - 7
It will split into more than 3 countries0%0% - 0
Total: 16
sergeriver
Cowboy from Hell
+1,928|7030|Argentina
How do you think Iraq will be in a middle future?  Can it remain as one nation?

After the removal of Saddam and the Coalition Forces occupation the country doesn't look very well.  What Saddam did is a Genocide and he deserves his sentence, he killed almost 200k Kurds.  But he was able to mantain Iraq united, by the force of course.  In fact he was supported by countries like US, France and the ex USSR against Iran. 

As I see the situation today, there's no chance that Iraq remains in one country.  It will probably split into three or more countries: one for each of the major religious groups Shias and Sunnis and the major ethnic groups Arabs and Kurds.  Then they can rebuild it.  Until that, the fight will continue.  So, there's no way that actual PM can handle the ethnic differences as Saddam did.

Here is the administrative divisions of Iraq:

https://img403.imageshack.us/img403/9780/200pxiraqnumberedregionvm1.png

1-Baghdad; 2-Salah ad Din; 3-Diyala; 4-Wasit; 5-Maysan; 6-Al Basrah; 7-Dhi Qar; 8-Al Muthanna; 9-Al-Qādisiyyah; 10-Babil; 11-Karbala; 12-An Najaf; 13-Al Anbar; 14-Ninawa; 15-Dahuk; 16-Arbil; 17-At Ta'mim; 18-As Sulaymaniyah.

Here is a map showing the distribution of all the ethnic and religious groups and their combinations.  Pretty difficult to split the country.

https://img294.imageshack.us/img294/4619/religiousmap4161kc5.gif

With these 2 maps you can get a picture of what every group could get.
Reaxzion
HOU A.U.B. JE MUIL!
+44|6867|Europe and goddamn proud of it
I personally think, when the American forces get out Iraq, the ethnic groups will try to take their piece of land.
It will fall apart in 3 or more countries..
Kurdistan, a Sunni Iraq and a Shia (Shiite) Iraq.

Last edited by Reaxzion (2006-11-05 06:20:52)

sergeriver
Cowboy from Hell
+1,928|7030|Argentina

Reaxzion wrote:

I personally think, when the American forces get out Iraq, the ethnic groups will try to take their piece of land.
It will fall apart in 3 or more countries..
I agree and basically it will be like the second map I think: brown, green and yellow one country each.
Reaxzion
HOU A.U.B. JE MUIL!
+44|6867|Europe and goddamn proud of it

sergeriver wrote:

Reaxzion wrote:

I personally think, when the American forces get out Iraq, the ethnic groups will try to take their piece of land.
It will fall apart in 3 or more countries..
I agree and basically it will be like the second map I think: brown, green and yellow one country each.
I couldn't agree more..
CameronPoe
Member
+2,925|6827
I hit the wrong button but I think it'll split two ways. Kurdistan and another state that will descend into Afghan proportions of violent misery. The Sunni and Shia factions are too thoroughly intermingled in the big cities to have the country divided in a realistic and lasting way.

PS The Turks will proceed to pwnerise Kurdistan.

Last edited by CameronPoe (2006-11-05 06:22:48)

Reaxzion
HOU A.U.B. JE MUIL!
+44|6867|Europe and goddamn proud of it

CameronPoe wrote:

I hit the wrong button but I think it'll split two ways. Kurdistan and another state that will descend into Afghan proportions of violent misery. The Sunni and Shia factions are too thoroughly intermingled in the big cities to have the country divided in a realistic and lasting way.

PS The Turks will proceed to pwnerise Kurdistan.
Indeed totally forgot the Turks, they will try to stop the Kurds from creating Kurdistan..
Doctor Strangelove
Real Battlefield Veterinarian.
+1,758|6740

sergeriver wrote:

Reaxzion wrote:

I personally think, when the American forces get out Iraq, the ethnic groups will try to take their piece of land.
It will fall apart in 3 or more countries..
I agree and basically it will be like the second map I think: brown, green and yellow one country each.
I agree too. None of them like each other enough to remain unified. Also there will be very many economic differences contributing.
Turquoise
O Canada
+1,596|6677|North Carolina
It will remain as one country conquered by Iran.  Whether through warfare or through installing a political puppet, Iran will eventually control Iraq, after we leave.
sergeriver
Cowboy from Hell
+1,928|7030|Argentina

Turquoise wrote:

It will remain as one country conquered by Iran.  Whether through warfare or through installing a political puppet, Iran will eventually control Iraq, after we leave.
That will never happen.  Iran is just a barking dog.
mafia996630
© 2009 Jeff Minard
+319|7036|d
I chose two. But after america leaves, the people of iraq are suddenly gone realise that they have common enemy and all hell is gone break lose.
Pierre
I hunt criminals down for a living
+68|6948|Belgium

CameronPoe wrote:

I hit the wrong button but I think it'll split two ways. Kurdistan and another state that will descend into Afghan proportions of violent misery. The Sunni and Shia factions are too thoroughly intermingled in the big cities to have the country divided in a realistic and lasting way.

PS The Turks will proceed to pwnerise Kurdistan.
I'm indeed a bit skeptic that Turkey would accept an independent "Kurdistan" along its border, as a free state with Parliament and elected government.
OTOH, if Turkey really wants to become a member of the EU, it needs to open up on this subject (and others) so a change of policy could be possible.
But I don't see a division into seperate countries any time soon.
Kmar
Truth is my Bitch
+5,695|6873|132 and Bush

Too cloudy for me to make an educated guess.
Xbone Stormsurgezz
sergeriver
Cowboy from Hell
+1,928|7030|Argentina

Kmarion wrote:

Too cloudy for me to make an educated guess.
Yeah, it's too cloudy right now, but that's why I asked in the middle future.
Turquoise
O Canada
+1,596|6677|North Carolina

sergeriver wrote:

Turquoise wrote:

It will remain as one country conquered by Iran.  Whether through warfare or through installing a political puppet, Iran will eventually control Iraq, after we leave.
That will never happen.  Iran is just a barking dog.
I disagree...  They are more like a python....

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