TDRE666
Member
+5|6733
I liked the part where they cited their sources.  Oh wait ...
ImposedThreat
You Were My Promotion
+24|6916|USA

ELITE-UK wrote:

I found this while searching google, and it looks interesting...

http://www.lilithgallery.com/articles/2 … lapse.html
Why is it so interesting?
Aenima_Eyes
Member
+20|6903
Seriously, I'm not saying Bush knows how to handle the economy. . .but the Democrats don't either.  What are they going to do?  Tax the hell out of the middle class and the rich?  That's always their solution.  I'm no economics whiz. . .but in the two economics classes I have taken, my professor (the head of the business department) straight up said himself that most economists can't even agree on what to do to help the market.  So, when either political party feeds you that line of horseshit you just gotta brush it off.  They have no clue just like everyone else.  So, for me it comes down to. . .do I want money in my pocket in the form of a tax cut?  Or do I want to shell out more of my paycheck so some Senator can burn my hard earned dollars on more bullshit?

Also. . .for just having the worst terrorist attack on this country just 5 years ago coupled with the .dot com bubble bursting. . .I think our economy is pretty well off.  The Dems always like to take credit for the economic success of the 90s, but they sure don't want to take any credit for the rapid decline in 2000.

Last edited by Aenima_Eyes (2006-10-04 12:17:14)

DesertFox-
The very model of a modern major general
+796|6936|United States of America
That's one persons opinion of it.
Bertster7
Confused Pothead
+1,101|6833|SE London

Aenima_Eyes wrote:

Seriously, I'm not saying Bush knows how to handle the economy. . .but the Democrats don't either.  What are they going to do?  Tax the hell out of the middle class and the rich?  That's always their solution.  I'm no economics whiz. . .but in the two economics classes I have taken, my professor (the head of the business department) straight up said himself that most economists can't even agree on what to do to help the market.  So, when either political party feeds you that line of horseshit you just gotta brush it off.  They have no clue just like everyone else.  So, for me it comes down to. . .do I want money in my pocket in the form of a tax cut?  Or do I want to shell out more of my paycheck so some Senator can burn my hard earned dollars on more bullshit?
That's not exactly true. Under Clinton the tax increases were reactive in response to a looming budget deficit and were tied in with an equal cut in government expenditure.

Bush has cut taxes and significantly increased expenditure. The two don't work together. You can cut taxes and cut spending or increase taxes and increase spending or any sort of equivalent combination. If you have less money coming in, you have to spend less - Bush isn't, that's what I have a problem with because it will impact the global economy if US debt gets totally out of hand.
Brasso
member
+1,549|6882

ELITE-UK wrote:

I found this while searching google, and it looks interesting...

http://www.lilithgallery.com/articles/2 … lapse.html
#7 is BS.  But other than that, sounds serious.
"people in ny have a general idea of how to drive. one of the pedals goes forward the other one prevents you from dying"
silo1180
The Farewell Tour
+79|6674|San Antonio, TX

golgoj4 wrote:

actually home sales have been down for the past 4 months...at least according to forbes or buisnessweek...and the price of a home is dropping because more and more people are going into foreclosure because of some of the creative finaincing that isnt working (intrest only loans come to mind) As for the stock market...i have no clue so i wont even comment.

And for people like me who live in Los Angeles, All the formerly decent areas for us up and coming 20 somethings have evaporated due to the LARGE influx of illegal residents willing to pay out the ass to live in shitty areas. I know that sounds fucked up but um...ive lived in La my whole life minus my time in the service and ive seen it change a lot. Its kinda funny actually to see how the demographics have changed.  but thats all besides the point. I just think things are worse now in general than before so i gotta disagree with the poster before me. And where the fuck did labor unions go? The only ones left are in the damned film industry it seems.
Home sales here in San Antonio, TX are up because people are getting smart and leaving California... and I actually have my real estate license so you could say I am an authority on the subject.  So over the last few months the sale of homes has decreased... yes... that's why I said "recently", not "currently".  But in my market, because a lot of companies are moving to San Antonio (WaMu, Toyota, Boeing) we are not only seeing existing homes moving quickly, but there are new subdivisions being built all over this city.  And my own home has increased in value over the last 5 years.  So maybe the economy in California is bad, but things here in TX are looking better.
Bertster7
Confused Pothead
+1,101|6833|SE London

haffeysucks wrote:

ELITE-UK wrote:

I found this while searching google, and it looks interesting...

http://www.lilithgallery.com/articles/2 … lapse.html
#7 is BS.  But other than that, sounds serious.
Why do you say that?

I agree with you, but why do you think it is.
Pug
UR father's brother's nephew's former roommate
+652|6794|Texas - Bigger than France
Ok, I can offer an opinion if you wish.  But I don't have time now.

24 of the points fall into the refutable category or the "and so what/make a point" category.  The last (#15) I'm unsure about because I haven't been paying attention too much to the before/after 9/11 economy, because I haven't studied up on it.

My favorite one is about China versus the US.  Who really cares, even if you're an American, who's got the strongest economy?  And second, if the US doesn't have the strongest economy, then how does that cause a nation to be in an unrecoverable recession?  By that logic it must really suck to be in England.

Although I'm not English and therefore not an expert on the US economy, I'll do my best.  Check back in a few days...
JimmyBotswana
Member
+82|6837|Montreal
We're all discussing this like Bush is the one setting economic policy. He's too busy telling fart jokes to Karl Rove. He has advisors and Treasury secretaries to do that.

Americans don't understand that this transfer of jobs to China is what Global Capitalism wants. So they convince the President to stand up on tv, smile, and tell the American people that free trade is a good thing because it means they have to compete with some kid in Indonesia working for 20 cents an hour. And the Americans think well we'll just get a Democrat who will have better fiscal policy. Guys, the democrats do the bidding of Global Capitalism just as much as the Republicans. This is what GC wants, it's going to happen. Your jobs, your way of life, is just a hindrance to higher profits, so you must be outsourced and placed in competition with cheap foreign labor. It's what free trade is all about. Don't like it? Overthrow Global Capitalism. Good luck with that.

P.S: Canada's high quality of life is taking a severe beating too. You're not alone. We all have to compete with these Asian sweatshops.
Bertster7
Confused Pothead
+1,101|6833|SE London

JimmyBotswana wrote:

We're all discussing this like Bush is the one setting economic policy. He's too busy telling fart jokes to Karl Rove. He has advisors and Treasury secretaries to do that.
The tax cuts made by Bush are an central part of HIS policy. If it were not for those tax cuts the US would not have the budget deficit problems that it does right now. Some tax cuts were quite possible, but Bush has made tax cuts that were too big, he has also increased spending. Much of the stuff Bush has increased spending on has been HIS policy.

It is very much Bush's fault. That and the fact Alan Greenspan isn't there to fix everything any more.

Greenspan was one of the biggest supporters of the tax cuts, saying they would benefit the economy, until he saw what was happening with the budget deficit which he warned would "have severe consequences". Greenspan recommended withdrawing the tax cuts and finding ways of reducing the governments expenditure. The G8 have also called for the US to exercise fiscal restraint.
<[onex]>Headstone
Member
+102|6954|New York

Bertster7 wrote:

It'll be ok if they get a proper president who understands economics next time round. Bush is doing a great job of running the US economy into the ground though.

A lot of Americans, including Bush, seem to think the US economy is indestructible - it isn't, it's quite robust though and can take quite a beating, which it has been doing the whole time Bush has been in office.
Where the Hell do you get your facts? Defecit aside, our economy is the strongest its been since during clintons mid term if not better. Go check your facts. Christ the dow even closed AGAIN at an even Higher new All time record high(that was set back in 2000 during clintons watch) Just yesterday or was it wednesday? cant remember right now not enough coffee.
Pug
UR father's brother's nephew's former roommate
+652|6794|Texas - Bigger than France
(My comments follow each statement). 

I think this was written a while ago, also it has a few flaws: lack of citing sources, making a statement rather than tying it to the overall conclusion, and throwing everything against the wall to see if anything sticks.  Loosely connected "facts" do not necessarily prove the theory.  There also is an obvious bias.  There is quite a lot here though…

Anyway, I'll point out where some of the weaknesses are.

The Top Ten Reasons Why the US Economy Will Collapse:

#1. The United States government is currently running a budget deficit of $1.8 billion/day. Too much deficit will create a weaker American dollar and cripple the US economy.

(This is a scare statement.  Like stating "if you eat too much food you'll get fat."  So the statement of "too much deficit will create a weaker dollar is common sense.  At no time did they state HOW MUCH of a deficit will cripple the economy.  It would have been better to actually state this another way.  A deficit is not a problem as long as GNP is expanding faster than the deficit.  However, this is not what the statement says.  The way it's presented it doesn't state anything but deficits are bad.  It doesn't preclude the idea that the US Economy WILL collapse).

#2. The US National Debt is $8 trillion+. It has to be paid back eventually by raising taxes.

(Again, this is a statement.  It must be paid back with taxes.  We know that, so how is paying it back eventually CAUSE a collapse?  There also is other ways to pay back the debt, and again, its not a problem as long as the GNP is expanding faster than the debt.)

#3. Oil prices is $60+ per crude barrel, there is a shortage of oil refineries and demand is growing due to more SUVs/trucks.

(Oil prices have increased WELL below the increase in inflation forever.  So, yes, it increases the costs, but oil is still relatively cheap.  Plus, the shortage of oil has more to do with China's energy needs expanding than SUVs/trucks, which are on the decline because the gas prices are higher.  So this statement is false.)

#4. China's economy is now bigger than the United States and China is now the centre of the global economy.

(I'm not going to look it up, but this is probably not true.  The dollar is still used as the primary float for currency exchange, it used to be gold, now it’s the dollar.  This is an advantage for the US economy because it "smooths" the sudden swings in currency prices, because the dollar will always be in demand because of this fact.  This is tangent evidence that the Chinese economy isn't the center solidifying force in the global economy.  But let's say this statement is true…so what?  Is there a problem with not being #1, and how is it if you're not #1 that the economy automatically collapses?)

#5. China's trade exports out-matches the United States (ie. they can build cars/trucks/SUVs for half the price).

(Actually, China has the largest trade surplus in the world.  Biggest partner - the US.  So the US economy is tied to China, and China's to the US.  The US economy has been moving away from an industrial economy to a service economy for some time.  And guess what? If a countries exports are larger than the others, the smaller exporting country isn't automatically going to collapse.)

#6. English is no longer the international business language. Mandarin Chinese is now more important.

(Wow, so if I go do business in Europe, Africa, or South America I guess everyone speaks Chinese.  2nd, how does the international business language apply to economics again?)

#7. Global warming is causing the US Wheat Belt to turn into desert.

(If true, it will be over a period of 1000s of years.  I guess I better buy some sunglasses.  The other fact here is that the US economy isn't agriarian.  Plus the US is exporting wheat, which means there's a surplus.)

#8. US universities aren't creating enough graduates to compete on the global market. Tuition is too expensive and there isn't enough university professors.

(Contradictory statement - is tuition too high to have enough students for class or are there too many students and not enough professors?  I can't comment besides that, I'm not sure how many graduates are enough, but I can tell you that universities have record attendence, and almost every US university has a construction project underway.)

#9. The babyboomers are retiring, creating a shortage of skilled workers.

(However, technology has increased productivity.  Therefore, the average worker is unbelivably productive in comparison to the past.)

#10. George W. Bush failed Economics 101. He was too busy snorting cocaine when he was at Yale.

(First, I'm not sure if GWB did cocaine, and if he did, the only economy it affects is the drug trade.  The President doesn't have to know economics…his support staff does.  All he has to do is choose between alternatives with the info provided.  Knowing economics helps though.  In addition, GWB lead the Texas economy to all time highs.  And lastly, I liked Clinton economics better than the present.)

#11. Automobile companies keep laying off unionized workers and moving their factories to China. The only car company building new plants and hiring workers is Japanese car-maker Toyota (which only hires non-union workers).

(Don't forget Honda.  Of course, it would be interesting to know why American automotive companies are purchasing foreign car companies if the American car industry sucks so bad.  And, of course, the DOW & NASDAQ has more than car companies listed, which means imminent economic collapse isn't tied to the car industry.)

#12. The US government sold off its oil/gasoline reserves in 2002. It no longer has oil reserves in case of a national shortage.

(Statement is completely false.  The shortage is due to China's increased energy needs, Katrina/Rita, and war - all contributing factors.  There's also programs and initiatives to reduce the dependence on oil - but they need to hurry up!  Oil companies also traditionally never searched for oil in deep water, but finding a huge oil field in the Gulf recently has everyone looking - the oil companies & supporting companies are scrambling to drill in the Gulf right now.)

#13. American taxpayers have an average of $48,000 in debt due to credit cards, mortgages, university debts, etc. If the economy goes sour and they lose their jobs, they may have to declare bankruptcy.

(This is a no shit statement.  If you can't pay your bills, you declare bankrupt.  It doesn't necessitate the conclusion that the economy will collapse, it states what happens if it does.)

#14. The US dollar is notoriously easy to make counterfeit bills of. Its value of the US dollar is growing steadily lower. Thanks to modern computer printers, counterfeit is very easy to make.

(It's not that easy.  Counterfeiting is actually on the decline.)

#15. The US economy still has not recovered from 9/11.

(I can't respond, because I haven't done any research to compare the before to after.  The only thing I know is that the markets are at an all time high and unemployment is at the level that anyone who wants to work can do so.  This is a direct conflict to this statement.)

#16. The US economy relies on the consumption of goods at a decadent rate. If something happens that throws the economy for a loop, it can very easily fall into a depression.

(The second sentence is another no shit statement.  To reflute the first sentence, we currently have no shortages that show it's imminent.  And lastly, this states the results, and is not a cause.  It would have been better to research consumption versus future imminent scarities in certain resources, which is not provided.)

#17. The US capitalist systems assumes that the United States is at the top of the global economy. It no longer is. China is at the top.

(So if you're not #1 than your economy has collapsed.  Also, I'd like to see proof.)

#18. Over 60% of Americans are overweight and/or obese. The health problems resulting from their unhealthy diets combined with a shortage of doctors is causing the US healthcare system to collapse.

(Well, I thought that we had a food shortage from the problems with global warming (#7), but ohh well.  Again, the stock market lists more companies than just health care.  Second, there is no shortage of doctors.  How is your personal health connected to the economy again?  Heatlhcare system problems stem from larger average healthcare expenses, not from sick people.  Anyway, this is the kind of thing that even if it could cause a catastrophic economic collapse, it corrects itself - people stop being pigs.)

#19. The US government can't afford to pay for its soldiers serving in Iraq, Afghanistan, South Korea... as a result, they are scaling back pay, pension and benefits for their soldiers. Injured soldiers have a crippling effect on the US economy and drain precious money from US coffers and families of the soldiers suffer economic consequences because they have to pay the hospital bills.

(False statement.  I thought the first statement said we like deficits.)

#20. Foreign investors are no longer investing in American companies. They are investing in Chinese companies.

(So all companies shut down?  This is also an absolute - are you sure that NO foreigners hold investments in US companies?  All this means is that the returns are better there, it doesn't mean the economy collapses.)

#21. Five years of drought and Global Warming has caused many farmers in the American mid-west to declare bankrupty. The US is facing a possible food shortage if current drought trends continue. People aren't building enough green houses to grow food.

(Can we really build a greenhouse to cover Iowa?  I thought that we were fat, now we have a food shortage?  Quick response - the US is still exporting food = surplus.)

#22. Rising costs of airplane flights are stifling business trips by companies seeking to do business.

(Yet technology has allowed people not to fly.  Technology also allows people to be more in contact with more people - which in turn increases the number of trips/contacts.  However, the trips to one particular customer has decreased because communications are better than before due to technology.  And lastly, the airlines are doing ok, and so are the companies - remember that the stock market is at a high right now.)

#23. Global Warming is causing record hurricanes, tropical storms, floods and ecological disasters are destroying homes & businesses in the South-Eastern United States. The storms also prevent oil rigs from drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, causing an oil shortage.

(China's energy needs is a better reason.  However, about 85% of all rigs are back in business.  And secondly, how many hurricanes have hit the Gulf this year? Zero.  It's actually been an average hurricane year compared to 2005.  And I refer you to the stock market yet again.)

#24. We're already in a recession. A depression is not far away.

(I'm not sure if we are or aren't.  But the recession indicators aren't redlined, and might not even be blinking - unemployment rate, inflation…etc…has been at least above average.)

#25. The White House is being complacent about the US economy and isn't doing a thing to prevent a depression.

(Maybe because it’s a long ways off…)

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