The_Shipbuilder
Stay the corpse
+261|6749|Los Angeles

The Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) at the University of Maryland wrote:

A new WPO poll of the Iraqi public finds that seven in ten Iraqis want US-led forces to commit to withdraw within a year. An overwhelming majority believes that the US military presence in Iraq is provoking more conflict than it is preventing and there is growing confidence in the Iraqi army. If the US made a commitment to withdraw, a majority believes that this would strengthen the Iraqi government. Support for attacks on US-led forces has grown to a majority position—now six in ten. Support appears to be related to a widespread perception, held by all ethnic groups, that the US government plans to have permanent military bases in Iraq.

The PIPA poll, which has a margin of error of 3 percent, was carried out by Iraqis in all 18 provinces who conducted interviews with more than 1,000 randomly selected Iraqis in their homes.

https://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/images/sep06/Iraq_Sep06_graph1d.jpg

https://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/images/sep06/Iraq_Sep06_graph1l.jpg

https://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/images/sep06/Iraq_Sep06_graph1g.jpg

The Washington Post wrote:

(link to original article)

A strong majority of Iraqis want U.S.-led military forces to immediately withdraw from the country, saying their swift departure would make Iraq more secure and decrease sectarian violence, according to new polls by the State Department and independent researchers.

In Baghdad, for example, nearly three-quarters of residents polled said they would feel safer if U.S. and other foreign forces left Iraq, with 65 percent of those asked favoring an immediate pullout, according to State Department polling results obtained by The Washington Post.

"Majorities in all regions except Kurdish areas state that the Multi-National Force-Iraq (MNF-I) should withdraw immediately, adding that the MNF-I's departure would make them feel safer and decrease violence," concludes the 20-page State Department report, titled "Iraq Civil War Fears Remain High in Sunni and Mixed Areas." The report was based on 1,870 face-to-face interviews conducted from late June to early July.

State Department poll results wrote:

https://media3.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2006/09/27/GR2006092700164.gif
"The very fact that there is such a low support for American forces has to do with the American failure to do basically anything for Iraqis," said Mansoor Moaddel, a professor of sociology at Eastern Michigan University, who commissioned a poll earlier this year that also found widespread support for a withdrawal. "It's part of human nature. People respect authority and power. But the U.S. so far has been unable to establish any real authority."

"Do you really think it's possible that America -- the greatest country in the world -- cannot manage a small country like this?" Mohammad Ali, 42, an unemployed construction worker, said as he sat in his friend's electronics shop on a recent afternoon. "No! They have not made any mistakes. They brought people here to destroy Iraq, not to build Iraq."

As he drew on a cigarette and two other men in the store nodded in agreement, Ali said the U.S. government was purposely depriving the Iraqi people of electricity, water, gasoline and security, to name just some of the things that most people in this country often lack.

Particularly in mixed neighborhoods here in the capital, some Sunnis say the departure of U.S. forces could trigger a genocide. Hameed al-Kassi, 24, a recent college graduate who lives in the Yarmouk district of Baghdad, worried that rampages by Shiite militias could cause "maybe 60 to 70 percent of the Sunnis to be killed, even the women, old and the young."

"There will be lakes of blood," Kassi said. "Of course we want the Americans to leave, but if they do, it will be a great disaster for us."

In a barbershop in the capital's Karrada district Tuesday afternoon, a group of men discussed some of the paradoxical Iraqi opinions of coalition troops. They recognized that the departure of U.S.-led forces could trigger more violence, and yet they harbored deep-rooted anger toward the Americans.

"I really don't like the Americans who patrol on the street. They should all go away," said a young boy as he swept up hair on the shop's floor. "But I do like the one who guards my church. He should stay!"

Sitting in a neon-orange chair as he waited for a haircut, Firas Adnan, a 27-year-old music student, said: "I really don't know what I want. If the Americans leave right now, there is going to be a massacre in Iraq. But if they don't leave, there will be more problems. From my point of view, though, it would be better for them to go out today than tomorrow."

He paused for a moment, then said, "We just want to go back and live like we did before."
Edit: moved State Department poll graph

Last edited by The_Shipbuilder (2006-09-28 10:27:25)

link52787
Member
+29|6771
You don't need polls to know that.  If your country had foreign military stationed there, you would want them out.
IRONCHEF
Member
+385|6740|Northern California
What's cool, as I watched this data last night on Anderson 360, was that while 7x% of Iraqis want us out,  the majority of Afghanistan people WANT us in their country.  And the bad thing is that, like Clinton pointed out, a seventh of our military forces are in Afghanistan..  Talk about poor priorities in the war of terror...
Bertster7
Confused Pothead
+1,101|6830|SE London

The Kurds seem quite keen on them staying.
IRONCHEF
Member
+385|6740|Northern California
Yep, kurds is cool.
Kaosdad
Whisky Tango Foxtrot?
+201|6928|Broadlands, VA
Well, I don't think too many folks in the U.S. would object to bringing the Troops back alive.
Deader
Member
+7|7041|TN, USA
"If the Americans leave right now, there is going to be a massacre in Iraq."

It's that part that America would like to avoid.
Kmar
Truth is my Bitch
+5,695|6850|132 and Bush

What stupid poll. We all WANT them out now. Hell I WANT a million dollars and a gold watch. That doesn't mean I should go rob a bank to achieve it.

But here is the real funny thing about that poll. The title of this thread is "Vast majority want US forces out immediately "
What a joke of a title... just propaganda
https://Tampastorm.smugmug.com/photos/98539431-L.jpg

Last edited by Kmarion (2006-09-28 11:03:07)

Xbone Stormsurgezz
The_Shipbuilder
Stay the corpse
+261|6749|Los Angeles

Deader wrote:

"If the Americans leave right now, there is going to be a massacre in Iraq."

It's that part that America would like to avoid.
Right, because the Administration's top priority is preventing the deaths of innocent Iraqis.

https://www.iraqbodycount.net/IBC/ibc144_1.gif
https://www.iraqbodycount.net/IBC/ibc144r_3.gif
https://www.iraqbodycount.org/counters/ibc_a.gif?1288295
The_Shipbuilder
Stay the corpse
+261|6749|Los Angeles

Kmarion wrote:

What stupid poll. We all WANT them out now. Hell I WANT a million dollars and a gold watch. That doesn't mean I should go rob a bank to achieve it.

But here is the real funny thing about that poll. The title of this thread is "Vast majority want US forces out immediately "
What a joke of a title... just propaganda
http://Tampastorm.smugmug.com/photos/98539431-L.jpg
So what you're saying is that all projections based on random samples are completely invalid, regardless of the fact that the margin of error is stated and that there is a pure algebraic formula to calculate it? Or do you just not understand estimation, the concept of random sampling, and math?
Kmar
Truth is my Bitch
+5,695|6850|132 and Bush

The_Shipbuilder wrote:

Kmarion wrote:

What stupid poll. We all WANT them out now. Hell I WANT a million dollars and a gold watch. That doesn't mean I should go rob a bank to achieve it.

But here is the real funny thing about that poll. The title of this thread is "Vast majority want US forces out immediately "
What a joke of a title... just propaganda
http://Tampastorm.smugmug.com/photos/98539431-L.jpg
So what you're saying is that all projections based on random samples are completely invalid, regardless of the fact that the margin of error is stated and that there is a pure algebraic formula to calculate it? Or do you just not understand estimation, the concept of random sampling, and math?
I understand completely, perhaps you need to do some investigative work before you come in and challenge my knowledge. Consider the sampling before you try to imply that the entire country feels that way. It is a big piece of the equation that goes into determining the results. Common sense eats this poll up and craps it out. I've noticed your couple of topics today and perhaps you could pay attention to some of the other people who stand on the same side you do in this forum and actually provide some kind of debatable issues rather than some laughable poll or trying to pass an editors opinion on CNN as a fact.
Xbone Stormsurgezz
kr@cker
Bringin' Sexy Back!
+581|6798|Southeastern USA
I saw a blurb about this on my homepage and said "the ship builder probably has this posted by now", oh btw, im going to get you something on the ACLU when I get home if I can find it, I had it the other day but my friends came over and we all got drunk instead, then again, we might get drunk tonight instead, anyways, I haven't forgotten, just only had time to make a few drive by's as of late
GATOR591957
Member
+84|6876

Deader wrote:

"If the Americans leave right now, there is going to be a massacre in Iraq."

It's that part that America would like to avoid.
So be it, it would be their choice and after all it is their country.
The_Shipbuilder
Stay the corpse
+261|6749|Los Angeles

Kmarion wrote:

The_Shipbuilder wrote:

Kmarion wrote:

What stupid poll. We all WANT them out now. Hell I WANT a million dollars and a gold watch. That doesn't mean I should go rob a bank to achieve it.

But here is the real funny thing about that poll. The title of this thread is "Vast majority want US forces out immediately "
What a joke of a title... just propaganda
http://Tampastorm.smugmug.com/photos/98539431-L.jpg
So what you're saying is that all projections based on random samples are completely invalid, regardless of the fact that the margin of error is stated and that there is a pure algebraic formula to calculate it? Or do you just not understand estimation, the concept of random sampling, and math?
I understand completely, perhaps you need to do some investigative work before you come in and challenge my knowledge. Consider the sampling before you try to imply that the entire country feels that way. It is a big piece of the equation that goes into determining the results. Common sense eats this poll up and craps it out.
You clearly disagree with something, but what exactly is it, and what are you trying to say? Do you believe that a random sampling of 1000 people is not enough? Do you believe that polls and estimation are by nature invalid sources of actionable knowledge, because they are incomplete? Do you doubt the ability of the University of Maryland to conduct truly random polls? Or what? What is the "common sense" that craps out this poll, exactly? Your statements are vague, please clarify. And I understand how easy it is to write in a withering, pissy tone, but if possible let's try to avoid it.

Kmarion wrote:

I've noticed your couple of topics today and perhaps you could pay attention to some of the other people who stand on the same side you do in this forum and actually provide some kind of debatable issues rather than some laughable poll or trying to pass an editors opinion on CNN as a fact.
So you believe that bill's provision was magically created by a CNN editor's opinion? I don't follow the logic here: you're saying that because Jack Cafferty believes the bill's provision is a bad thing, that the provision doesn't exist? Or what exactly?

Anyway - I posted something, and you're debating with me on it. I post a poll, you doubt its efficacy (or something, not sure what exactly) and you doubt that the president's bill actually contains the provision that I implicitly believe it does. Certainly sounds as though we're debating. Which would make them "debatable issues".

Perhaps, yet again, facts are invalid, because reality tends to have a liberal bias.
Kmar
Truth is my Bitch
+5,695|6850|132 and Bush

The_Shipbuilder wrote:

You clearly disagree with something, but what exactly is it, and what are you trying to say? Do you believe that a random sampling of 1000 people is not enough?
Obviously I don't in a country of 28 million.

The_Shipbuilder wrote:

Do you believe that polls and estimation are by nature invalid sources of actionable knowledge, because they are incomplete?
All a person needs to do is read this question to see how absurd it is. Are you suggesting that we should just take everything at face value and not actually challenge the fact that millions of people never got a chance to share their opinion? If that were the case we could just hold US elections in one town to get our results.

The_Shipbuilder wrote:

Do you doubt the ability of the University of Maryland to conduct truly random polls? Or what?
I doubt anyone's acurracy that does not take a large enough sampling.

The_Shipbuilder wrote:

What is the "common sense" that craps out this poll, exactly? Your statements are vague, please clarify.
Take a look at my graph and tell me something doesn't seem and odd doesn't jump out.

The_Shipbuilder wrote:

And I understand how easy it is to write in a withering, pissy tone, but if possible let's try to avoid it.
Tone is often misinterpreted in forums. I don't understand what was pissy or withering about it but if I hurt your feelings I am sorry.

Kmarion wrote:

I've noticed your couple of topics today and perhaps you could pay attention to some of the other people who stand on the same side you do in this forum and actually provide some kind of debatable issues rather than some laughable poll or trying to pass an editors opinion on CNN as a fact.
So you believe that bill's provision was magically created by a CNN editor's opinion? I don't follow the logic here: you're saying that because Jack Cafferty believes the bill's provision is a bad thing, that the provision doesn't exist? Or what exactly?

Anyway - I posted something, and you're debating with me on it. I post a poll, you doubt its efficacy (or something, not sure what exactly) and you doubt that the president's bill actually contains the provision that I implicitly believe it does. Certainly sounds as though we're debating. Which would make them "debatable issues".

The_Shipbuilder wrote:

Perhaps, yet again, facts are invalid, because reality tends to have a liberal bias.
In your mind.

I need to get back to studying but if you get a chance answer me this. Do you not beleive and think Americans along with Iraqi's wan't our troops home? I'll reffer you back to this.
We all WANT them out now. Hell, I WANT a million dollars and a gold watch. That doesn't mean I should go rob a bank to achieve it.
Xbone Stormsurgezz
Deader
Member
+7|7041|TN, USA

GATOR591957 wrote:

Deader wrote:

"If the Americans leave right now, there is going to be a massacre in Iraq."

It's that part that America would like to avoid.
So be it, it would be their choice and after all it is their country.
And while Sunni's and Shiites murder each other off and destroy each others leadership al Qaida leadership moves in and creates another Afghanistan. Good Move! Yeah, we screwed that up with Afghanistan the first time. We'd like to avoid it this time.
Kmar
Truth is my Bitch
+5,695|6850|132 and Bush

I feel if we left now that there would be Genocide. The fighting is over which side gets control and most of the attacks now are not centered on troops but rather the rivaling factions.
Xbone Stormsurgezz
The_Shipbuilder
Stay the corpse
+261|6749|Los Angeles

Kmarion wrote:

The_Shipbuilder wrote:

You clearly disagree with something, but what exactly is it, and what are you trying to say? Do you believe that a random sampling of 1000 people is not enough?
Obviously I don't in a country of 28 million.

The_Shipbuilder wrote:

Do you believe that polls and estimation are by nature invalid sources of actionable knowledge, because they are incomplete?
All a person needs to do is read this question to see how absurd it is. Are you suggesting that we should just take everything at face value and not actually challenge the fact that millions of people never got a chance to share their opinion? If that were the case we could just hold US elections in one town to get our results.
I'm saying that I understand both the power and limitations of random-sample polls.

If you believe a random sample isn't indicative of the underlying population within the stated margin of error, you're arguing against mathematics. The formulas for calculating confidence intervals and margins of error are fairly simple.

- The poll you dispute finds that 78% of repondents believe the US military in Iraq is provoking more conflict than it is preventing.
- The margin of error registered on a random sample of less than 2,000 against the total 26+ million population of Iraq calculates as 3%.
- Therefore, if we could ask all 26+ million Iraqis the same question, the math proves that 75% to 81% believe the US military in Iraq is provoking more conflict than it is preventing.

You're saying that the poll is invalid because its random sample size isn't large enough. Essentially, you're saying that the margin of error isn't small enough for you. You want a random sample of, say, 10 million Iraqis, so that the 75% to 81% range could be whittled down to a much smaller range, with a margin of error of say 0.1%.

But I think anyone with a basic understanding of math and statistics would know that when the results of a random sample are this obvious, you don't need further refinement.

Kmarion wrote:

I need to get back to studying but if you get a chance answer me this. Do you not beleive and think Americans along with Iraqi's wan't our troops home?
Of course I do, because I know how to read polls. You don't trust polls though, so what do you use as an indicator of popular opinion? Your gut instinct?
Ikarti
Banned - for ever.
+231|6958|Wilmington, DE, US
I can't really blame him though. Polls and statistics usually are there to support a message and twisted to that end. I usually ignore them myself. However, in this case, poll is believable. It's not like they rounded up a ton of Baathists and said HAY GUYZ DO U LIKE TEH US?
<[onex]>Headstone
Member
+102|6951|New York

The_Shipbuilder wrote:

The Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) at the University of Maryland wrote:

A new WPO poll of the Iraqi public finds that seven in ten Iraqis want US-led forces to commit to withdraw within a year. An overwhelming majority believes that the US military presence in Iraq is provoking more conflict than it is preventing and there is growing confidence in the Iraqi army. If the US made a commitment to withdraw, a majority believes that this would strengthen the Iraqi government. Support for attacks on US-led forces has grown to a majority position—now six in ten. Support appears to be related to a widespread perception, held by all ethnic groups, that the US government plans to have permanent military bases in Iraq.

The PIPA poll, which has a margin of error of 3 percent, was carried out by Iraqis in all 18 provinces who conducted interviews with more than 1,000 randomly selected Iraqis in their homes.

http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/ … raph1d.jpg

http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/ … raph1l.jpg

http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/ … raph1g.jpg

The Washington Post wrote:

(link to original article)

A strong majority of Iraqis want U.S.-led military forces to immediately withdraw from the country, saying their swift departure would make Iraq more secure and decrease sectarian violence, according to new polls by the State Department and independent researchers.

In Baghdad, for example, nearly three-quarters of residents polled said they would feel safer if U.S. and other foreign forces left Iraq, with 65 percent of those asked favoring an immediate pullout, according to State Department polling results obtained by The Washington Post.

"Majorities in all regions except Kurdish areas state that the Multi-National Force-Iraq (MNF-I) should withdraw immediately, adding that the MNF-I's departure would make them feel safer and decrease violence," concludes the 20-page State Department report, titled "Iraq Civil War Fears Remain High in Sunni and Mixed Areas." The report was based on 1,870 face-to-face interviews conducted from late June to early July.

State Department poll results wrote:

http://media3.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn … 700164.gif
"The very fact that there is such a low support for American forces has to do with the American failure to do basically anything for Iraqis," said Mansoor Moaddel, a professor of sociology at Eastern Michigan University, who commissioned a poll earlier this year that also found widespread support for a withdrawal. "It's part of human nature. People respect authority and power. But the U.S. so far has been unable to establish any real authority."

"Do you really think it's possible that America -- the greatest country in the world -- cannot manage a small country like this?" Mohammad Ali, 42, an unemployed construction worker, said as he sat in his friend's electronics shop on a recent afternoon. "No! They have not made any mistakes. They brought people here to destroy Iraq, not to build Iraq."

As he drew on a cigarette and two other men in the store nodded in agreement, Ali said the U.S. government was purposely depriving the Iraqi people of electricity, water, gasoline and security, to name just some of the things that most people in this country often lack.

Particularly in mixed neighborhoods here in the capital, some Sunnis say the departure of U.S. forces could trigger a genocide. Hameed al-Kassi, 24, a recent college graduate who lives in the Yarmouk district of Baghdad, worried that rampages by Shiite militias could cause "maybe 60 to 70 percent of the Sunnis to be killed, even the women, old and the young."

"There will be lakes of blood," Kassi said. "Of course we want the Americans to leave, but if they do, it will be a great disaster for us."

In a barbershop in the capital's Karrada district Tuesday afternoon, a group of men discussed some of the paradoxical Iraqi opinions of coalition troops. They recognized that the departure of U.S.-led forces could trigger more violence, and yet they harbored deep-rooted anger toward the Americans.

"I really don't like the Americans who patrol on the street. They should all go away," said a young boy as he swept up hair on the shop's floor. "But I do like the one who guards my church. He should stay!"

Sitting in a neon-orange chair as he waited for a haircut, Firas Adnan, a 27-year-old music student, said: "I really don't know what I want. If the Americans leave right now, there is going to be a massacre in Iraq. But if they don't leave, there will be more problems. From my point of view, though, it would be better for them to go out today than tomorrow."

He paused for a moment, then said, "We just want to go back and live like we did before."
Edit: moved State Department poll graph
Take this with a grainof salt. Sighting the source. The Washington post. Agenda? Yup.

Now why would you think this magical number of Iraqi's want us out asap? Well it doesnt taks a Know it all like the post to tell anyone. There is ethnic cleansing waiting to happen, and they want us out so they can get on with it on a scale far greater than it is being done now. So as i said, take this with a grain of salt. I am.
IRONCHEF
Member
+385|6740|Northern California
dont you mean "STATE DEPARTMENT" did this study?  And independent groups?  Washington post has no agenda that includes state department polls that I've ever heard of.
smtt686
this is the best we can do?
+95|6880|USA
this is the dumbest poll ive ever seen...u want me to believe that people went door to door in iraq asking for opinions..... yeah, lets all get on that bandwagon.  The U.N. isnt even welcome there.  What did they do? Get a bunch of pollsters to hire armed insurgent escorts to make sure they have safe passage through baghdad!
Ikarti
Banned - for ever.
+231|6958|Wilmington, DE, US

smtt686 wrote:

this is the dumbest poll ive ever seen...u want me to believe that people went door to door in iraq asking for opinions..... yeah, lets all get on that bandwagon.  The U.N. isnt even welcome there.  What did they do? Get a bunch of pollsters to hire armed insurgent escorts to make sure they have safe passage through baghdad!
Yeah, because I bet all those Iraqis are over there baking American flag cakes.
The_Shipbuilder
Stay the corpse
+261|6749|Los Angeles

smtt686 wrote:

this is the dumbest poll ive ever seen...u want me to believe that people went door to door in iraq asking for opinions..... yeah, lets all get on that bandwagon.  The U.N. isnt even welcome there.  What did they do? Get a bunch of pollsters to hire armed insurgent escorts to make sure they have safe passage through baghdad!
You do realize that there are people in Iraq doing things other than shooting each other in the streets, right?

Did you read my original post, or did you just look at the pretty pictures?

I'll quote it for you.

In my original post, quoting the WP article, I wrote:

The PIPA poll, which has a margin of error of 3 percent, was carried out by Iraqis in all 18 provinces who conducted interviews with more than 1,000 randomly selected Iraqis in their homes.
Also,

The Methodology section of the actual report, which anyone can find in 10 seconds with google, wrote:

The survey was designed and analyzed by the Program on International Policy Attitudes for WorldPublicOpinion.org. Field work was conducted through D3 Systems and its partner KA Research in Iraq.
<[onex]>Headstone
Member
+102|6951|New York
State department is a catch phrase thrown in LOL. Yah, lets release this to the press and the world. If thats the mentality at the state department, then god forbid dude we are all in trouble. LOL. Holy crap.

By the numbers polled, I can go poll 10 people in my city and come up with the same results lol.

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