SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+635|3729
The mortality rate is higher than 2%.

It's from 7 to 20%. That's without counting however many deaths China is hiding.
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|5368|London, England

SuperJail Warden wrote:

The mortality rate is higher than 2%.

It's from 7 to 20%. That's without counting however many deaths China is hiding.
No way it's that high.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+635|3729

Jay wrote:

DesertFox- wrote:

I swear that boiling down American ideals as "freedom" to oversimplify it for the lowest common denominator has been a huge mistake. It's been used to justify the most harmful behaviors to the society, and ironically, the nation itself because some jackass decides it means Thomas Jefferson wanted him to go golfing during a pandemic.
What is wrong with golfing?
It's a sport for fat people.
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|5368|London, England

SuperJail Warden wrote:

Jay wrote:

DesertFox- wrote:

I swear that boiling down American ideals as "freedom" to oversimplify it for the lowest common denominator has been a huge mistake. It's been used to justify the most harmful behaviors to the society, and ironically, the nation itself because some jackass decides it means Thomas Jefferson wanted him to go golfing during a pandemic.
What is wrong with golfing?
It's a sport for fat people.
Sometimes
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
DesertFox-
The very model of a modern major general
+794|6694|United States of America

Jay wrote:

DesertFox- wrote:

I swear that boiling down American ideals as "freedom" to oversimplify it for the lowest common denominator has been a huge mistake. It's been used to justify the most harmful behaviors to the society, and ironically, the nation itself because some jackass decides it means Thomas Jefferson wanted him to go golfing during a pandemic.
What is wrong with golfing?
Nothing, necessarily, provided people are still social distancing and working to prevent disease transmission. Also, that they're just golfing and not hanging around with the boys in the clubhouse. It is a superfluous leisure activity that need not be a huge priority, though.There's plenty of fun things I enjoy doing that are closed, too.
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|5368|London, England

DesertFox- wrote:

Jay wrote:

DesertFox- wrote:

I swear that boiling down American ideals as "freedom" to oversimplify it for the lowest common denominator has been a huge mistake. It's been used to justify the most harmful behaviors to the society, and ironically, the nation itself because some jackass decides it means Thomas Jefferson wanted him to go golfing during a pandemic.
What is wrong with golfing?
Nothing, necessarily, provided people are still social distancing and working to prevent disease transmission. Also, that they're just golfing and not hanging around with the boys in the clubhouse. It is a superfluous leisure activity that need not be a huge priority, though.There's plenty of fun things I enjoy doing that are closed, too.
What makes it superfluous? Because it's not something you personally enjoy?
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
Larssen
Member
+99|1897

Jay wrote:

SuperJail Warden wrote:

The mortality rate is higher than 2%.

It's from 7 to 20%. That's without counting however many deaths China is hiding.
No way it's that high.
Hospitalisation rate is that high.

The state having the monopoly on violence and being the only agreed upon legitimate authority should have the means to enact partial and full lock downs where it wishes, or to enforce social distancing norms. That being the case, it is full well within its capabilities to at least slow the spread within the area it governs.

As for cost, many will die, yes. But go and figure out how many, how many will be hospitalised and what effect that will have on society and the economy.
SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+635|3729

Jay wrote:

SuperJail Warden wrote:

The mortality rate is higher than 2%.

It's from 7 to 20%. That's without counting however many deaths China is hiding.
No way it's that high.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Coronavirus Cases:
2,173,168
view by country
Deaths:
144,949
Recovered:
546,296
And
CLOSED CASES
691,245
Cases which had an outcome:
546,296 (79%)
Recovered / Discharged




144,949 (21%)
Deaths
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+635|3729

Jay wrote:

DesertFox- wrote:

Jay wrote:


What is wrong with golfing?
Nothing, necessarily, provided people are still social distancing and working to prevent disease transmission. Also, that they're just golfing and not hanging around with the boys in the clubhouse. It is a superfluous leisure activity that need not be a huge priority, though.There's plenty of fun things I enjoy doing that are closed, too.
What makes it superfluous? Because it's not something you personally enjoy?
It's a waste of land.
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
Pochsy
Artifice of Eternity
+702|5553|Toronto

SuperJail Warden wrote:

Jay wrote:

SuperJail Warden wrote:

The mortality rate is higher than 2%.

It's from 7 to 20%. That's without counting however many deaths China is hiding.
No way it's that high.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Coronavirus Cases:
2,173,168
view by country
Deaths:
144,949
Recovered:
546,296
And
CLOSED CASES
691,245
Cases which had an outcome:
546,296 (79%)
Recovered / Discharged




144,949 (21%)
Deaths
Good data, Mac.

I'd also throw in this site for a little more granularity: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

In the case of the US, it even lets you see stats by district.

EDIT - oh, and the "critical trends" tab answers a lot of these sorts of questions.

Last edited by Pochsy (2020-04-16 14:51:33)

The shape of an eye in front of the ocean, digging for stones and throwing them against its window pane. Take it down dreamer, take it down deep. - Other Families
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|5368|London, England

Larssen wrote:

Jay wrote:

SuperJail Warden wrote:

The mortality rate is higher than 2%.

It's from 7 to 20%. That's without counting however many deaths China is hiding.
No way it's that high.
Hospitalisation rate is that high.

The state having the monopoly on violence and being the only agreed upon legitimate authority should have the means to enact partial and full lock downs where it wishes, or to enforce social distancing norms. That being the case, it is full well within its capabilities to at least slow the spread within the area it governs.

As for cost, many will die, yes. But go and figure out how many, how many will be hospitalised and what effect that will have on society and the economy.
But do we agree? Half this country hates our president and actively tries to undermine him every day. I hate my governor and think he's a corrupt moron. Why should these people have the power to dictate to anyone? They're just people who won popularity contests in rigged two-party contests where we the people were never given more than a passing chance at deciding who those two jackasses running should be. Our politicians are fools in general. None of them are experts at anything other than winning political campaigns. Granting them the power to dictate the daily lives and expecting positive outcomes is stupid. These people need to be lined up against a wall and shot, not obeyed.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|5368|London, England

SuperJail Warden wrote:

Jay wrote:

SuperJail Warden wrote:

The mortality rate is higher than 2%.

It's from 7 to 20%. That's without counting however many deaths China is hiding.
No way it's that high.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Coronavirus Cases:
2,173,168
view by country
Deaths:
144,949
Recovered:
546,296
And
CLOSED CASES
691,245
Cases which had an outcome:
546,296 (79%)
Recovered / Discharged




144,949 (21%)
Deaths
Yep, and how many people haven't been tested that have had the virus?
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
Pochsy
Artifice of Eternity
+702|5553|Toronto

Jay wrote:

Larssen wrote:

Jay wrote:


No way it's that high.
Hospitalisation rate is that high.

The state having the monopoly on violence and being the only agreed upon legitimate authority should have the means to enact partial and full lock downs where it wishes, or to enforce social distancing norms. That being the case, it is full well within its capabilities to at least slow the spread within the area it governs.

As for cost, many will die, yes. But go and figure out how many, how many will be hospitalised and what effect that will have on society and the economy.
But do we agree? Half this country hates our president and actively tries to undermine him every day. I hate my governor and think he's a corrupt moron. Why should these people have the power to dictate to anyone? They're just people who won popularity contests in rigged two-party contests where we the people were never given more than a passing chance at deciding who those two jackasses running should be. Our politicians are fools in general. None of them are experts at anything other than winning political campaigns. Granting them the power to dictate the daily lives and expecting positive outcomes is stupid. These people need to be lined up against a wall and shot, not obeyed.
Would you suggest technocracy as an alternative?
The shape of an eye in front of the ocean, digging for stones and throwing them against its window pane. Take it down dreamer, take it down deep. - Other Families
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|5368|London, England

Pochsy wrote:

Jay wrote:

Larssen wrote:

Hospitalisation rate is that high.

The state having the monopoly on violence and being the only agreed upon legitimate authority should have the means to enact partial and full lock downs where it wishes, or to enforce social distancing norms. That being the case, it is full well within its capabilities to at least slow the spread within the area it governs.

As for cost, many will die, yes. But go and figure out how many, how many will be hospitalised and what effect that will have on society and the economy.
But do we agree? Half this country hates our president and actively tries to undermine him every day. I hate my governor and think he's a corrupt moron. Why should these people have the power to dictate to anyone? They're just people who won popularity contests in rigged two-party contests where we the people were never given more than a passing chance at deciding who those two jackasses running should be. Our politicians are fools in general. None of them are experts at anything other than winning political campaigns. Granting them the power to dictate the daily lives and expecting positive outcomes is stupid. These people need to be lined up against a wall and shot, not obeyed.
Would you suggest technocracy as an alternative?
No, because then you have fools with incomplete data (but the arrogance of supposed experts) trying to fit an academic theory onto the population at large, see: USSR see also: The Great Leap Forward

Last edited by Jay (2020-04-16 14:55:39)

"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+635|3729

Jay wrote:

SuperJail Warden wrote:

Jay wrote:


No way it's that high.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Coronavirus Cases:
2,173,168
view by country
Deaths:
144,949
Recovered:
546,296
And
CLOSED CASES
691,245
Cases which had an outcome:
546,296 (79%)
Recovered / Discharged




144,949 (21%)
Deaths
Yep, and how many people haven't been tested that have had the virus?
Does that matter? You got a 20% of dying if you develop symptoms. That's not an acceptable risk. That's literally a game of Russian roulette.
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|5368|London, England
Sorry, I'm in a bad mood because my states shutdown was extended until May 15th now. Another month of this pointless nonsense.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|5368|London, England

SuperJail Warden wrote:

Jay wrote:

SuperJail Warden wrote:

Jay wrote:

No way it's that high.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Coronavirus Cases:
2,173,168
view by country
Deaths:
144,949
Recovered:
546,296
And

Yep, and how many people haven't been tested that have had the virus?
Does that matter? You got a 20% of dying if you develop symptoms. That's not an acceptable risk. That's literally a game of Russian roulette.
Yes, of course it matters. Not everyone that develops symptoms seeks testing. If only 1 in 20 people is seeking medical care, then your death rate becomes 1%. Your recovered rate also has no criteria attached to it. Is it just people who had followup tests and tested negative? Is it people who are outside the 2 week range of a positive test?

The numbers are pointless right now. Universal antibody tests will be the only thing that ever lets us know what the severity really was.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
Larssen
Member
+99|1897

Jay wrote:

Larssen wrote:

Jay wrote:


No way it's that high.
Hospitalisation rate is that high.

The state having the monopoly on violence and being the only agreed upon legitimate authority should have the means to enact partial and full lock downs where it wishes, or to enforce social distancing norms. That being the case, it is full well within its capabilities to at least slow the spread within the area it governs.

As for cost, many will die, yes. But go and figure out how many, how many will be hospitalised and what effect that will have on society and the economy.
But do we agree? Half this country hates our president and actively tries to undermine him every day. I hate my governor and think he's a corrupt moron. Why should these people have the power to dictate to anyone? They're just people who won popularity contests in rigged two-party contests where we the people were never given more than a passing chance at deciding who those two jackasses running should be. Our politicians are fools in general. None of them are experts at anything other than winning political campaigns. Granting them the power to dictate the daily lives and expecting positive outcomes is stupid. These people need to be lined up against a wall and shot, not obeyed.
The power of the state is not concentrated simply in the person elected to political office. They are only part of its workings - power manifests itself in all rules and regulations that govern your daily life, the laws that dictate only the state is authorised to use force, and the judiciary, police & military to back that up. These are more 'hard' forms of power, but it isn't necessary for you to agree with that to acknowledge this. Legitimacy, the acceptance of authority, can be enforced if it's not given voluntarily.

So that circles back to the point that it IS factually within the state's means to enforce a lockdown or social norms and to stem the spread of the virus.

So I would concentrate on if it should. Well, weighing the cost, states across the globe agree the answer is 'yes'.
SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+635|3729

Jay wrote:

SuperJail Warden wrote:

Jay wrote:


Yep, and how many people haven't been tested that have had the virus?
Does that matter? You got a 20% of dying if you develop symptoms. That's not an acceptable risk. That's literally a game of Russian roulette.
Yes, of course it matters. Not everyone that develops symptoms seeks testing. If only 1 in 20 people is seeking medical care, then your death rate becomes 1%. Your recovered rate also has no criteria attached to it. Is it just people who had followup tests and tested negative? Is it people who are outside the 2 week range of a positive test?

The numbers are pointless right now. Universal antibody tests will be the only thing that ever lets us know what the severity really was.
Do you have any proof there are mass asymptomatic carriers? Because it sounds you are "trying to fit an academic theory onto the population at large".
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|5368|London, England

Larssen wrote:

Jay wrote:

Larssen wrote:


Hospitalisation rate is that high.

The state having the monopoly on violence and being the only agreed upon legitimate authority should have the means to enact partial and full lock downs where it wishes, or to enforce social distancing norms. That being the case, it is full well within its capabilities to at least slow the spread within the area it governs.

As for cost, many will die, yes. But go and figure out how many, how many will be hospitalised and what effect that will have on society and the economy.
But do we agree? Half this country hates our president and actively tries to undermine him every day. I hate my governor and think he's a corrupt moron. Why should these people have the power to dictate to anyone? They're just people who won popularity contests in rigged two-party contests where we the people were never given more than a passing chance at deciding who those two jackasses running should be. Our politicians are fools in general. None of them are experts at anything other than winning political campaigns. Granting them the power to dictate the daily lives and expecting positive outcomes is stupid. These people need to be lined up against a wall and shot, not obeyed.
The power of the state is not concentrated simply in the person elected to political office. They are only part of its workings - power manifests itself in all rules and regulations that govern your daily life, the laws that dictate only the state is authorised to use force, and the judiciary, police & military to back that up. These are more 'hard' forms of power, but it isn't necessary for you to agree with that to acknowledge this. Legitimacy, the acceptance of authority, can be enforced if it's not given voluntarily.

So that circles back to the point that it IS factually within the state's means to enforce a lockdown or social norms and to stem the spread of the virus.

So I would concentrate on if it should. Well, weighing the cost, states across the globe agree the answer is 'yes'.
Which is why we have 2nd Amendment rights. Good luck trying to enforce unpopular laws.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|5368|London, England

SuperJail Warden wrote:

Jay wrote:

SuperJail Warden wrote:


Does that matter? You got a 20% of dying if you develop symptoms. That's not an acceptable risk. That's literally a game of Russian roulette.
Yes, of course it matters. Not everyone that develops symptoms seeks testing. If only 1 in 20 people is seeking medical care, then your death rate becomes 1%. Your recovered rate also has no criteria attached to it. Is it just people who had followup tests and tested negative? Is it people who are outside the 2 week range of a positive test?

The numbers are pointless right now. Universal antibody tests will be the only thing that ever lets us know what the severity really was.
Do you have any proof there are mass asymptomatic carriers? Because it sounds you are "trying to fit an academic theory onto the population at large".
Nope. I don't have the data. Just a load of anecdotes from friends and coworkers and friends of friends that have had the symptoms but didn't bother going to the hospital or get tested because it was too difficult and because they wanted to conserve resources for people with more severe cases.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
KEN-JENNINGS
I am all that is MOD!
+2,973|6642|949

SuperJail Warden wrote:

Jay wrote:

DesertFox- wrote:


Nothing, necessarily, provided people are still social distancing and working to prevent disease transmission. Also, that they're just golfing and not hanging around with the boys in the clubhouse. It is a superfluous leisure activity that need not be a huge priority, though.There's plenty of fun things I enjoy doing that are closed, too.
What makes it superfluous? Because it's not something you personally enjoy?
It's a waste of land.
It can be, definitely.

I really miss golfing

I let myself entertain the thought of sneaking on to the country club behind me early in the morning and getting through a few holes before work but I didn't because I'm a pussy and didn't want to get in trouble with the POPO
Pochsy
Artifice of Eternity
+702|5553|Toronto

Jay wrote:

SuperJail Warden wrote:

Jay wrote:


Yep, and how many people haven't been tested that have had the virus?
Does that matter? You got a 20% of dying if you develop symptoms. That's not an acceptable risk. That's literally a game of Russian roulette.
Yes, of course it matters. Not everyone that develops symptoms seeks testing. If only 1 in 20 people is seeking medical care, then your death rate becomes 1%. Your recovered rate also has no criteria attached to it. Is it just people who had followup tests and tested negative? Is it people who are outside the 2 week range of a positive test?

The numbers are pointless right now. Universal antibody tests will be the only thing that ever lets us know what the severity really was.
Sorry Jay, but that's stupid. Your argument is stupid. Your reasoning is stupid. Here's a concept you'll need to make sense of why we're so sure it's at least 10% death rate, if not more:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sample_size_determination

You're an engineer. You have to have taken statistics. I only did 3 graduate courses on it, and this was covered in lecture 2, right after we learned the topics to be covered and when to submit the problem sheets.

I'm normally not so rude, but sorry man, you're out to lunch.
The shape of an eye in front of the ocean, digging for stones and throwing them against its window pane. Take it down dreamer, take it down deep. - Other Families
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|5368|London, England

KEN-JENNINGS wrote:

SuperJail Warden wrote:

Jay wrote:


What makes it superfluous? Because it's not something you personally enjoy?
It's a waste of land.
It can be, definitely.

I really miss golfing

I let myself entertain the thought of sneaking on to the country club behind me early in the morning and getting through a few holes before work but I didn't because I'm a pussy and didn't want to get in trouble with the POPO
I got nine holes in with my brother and two of his coworkers last week. Got a text message 3 days later saying that all golf courses, marinas, boat launches are closed indefinitely and no one is allowed to have their boat in the water. Basically, the fun police decided to shit on everyone. Too many dilberts in the world.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|5368|London, England

Pochsy wrote:

Jay wrote:

SuperJail Warden wrote:


Does that matter? You got a 20% of dying if you develop symptoms. That's not an acceptable risk. That's literally a game of Russian roulette.
Yes, of course it matters. Not everyone that develops symptoms seeks testing. If only 1 in 20 people is seeking medical care, then your death rate becomes 1%. Your recovered rate also has no criteria attached to it. Is it just people who had followup tests and tested negative? Is it people who are outside the 2 week range of a positive test?

The numbers are pointless right now. Universal antibody tests will be the only thing that ever lets us know what the severity really was.
Sorry Jay, but that's stupid. Your argument is stupid. Your reasoning is stupid. Here's a concept you'll need to make sense of why we're so sure it's at least 10% death rate, if not more:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sample_size_determination

You're an engineer. You have to have taken statistics. I only did 3 graduate courses on it, and this was covered in lecture 2, right after we learned the topics to be covered and when to submit the problem sheets.

I'm normally not so rude, but sorry man, you're out to lunch.
So you are assuming that nearly everyone that has had symptoms has received a test. Ok.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat

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