Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,786|5532|eXtreme to the maX
Omicron isn't mild, its killing plenty of people despite them being vaccinated.

BA5 has pretty well escaped the vaccines no?
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unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+1,998|6198|USA

Speaking for US statistics (via statista), over 90% of overall COVID-19 deaths are among ages 50 and up. Looking at a CDC table from June this year using 18-29 as a reference group, risk of hospitalization and death rise significantly around here.

Dilbert, tell us about the people you're sweep-referencing who are "dying in great numbers" from covid. How many among those are unvaccinated? How many are vaccinated or boosted? What are their ages and comorbidities? Give us some ratios.

I think there's a great deal of misunderstandings about numbers right now, probably no thanks to news spin.

from sci-a, mar 2022:

How to Compare COVID Deaths for Vaccinated and Unvaccinated People
The death rate among unvaccinated people is still far higher than that among the vaccinated even though vaccinated people now make up a significant proportion of deaths
( https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti … ed-people/ ):

In order to avoid the pitfalls of absolute numbers, it is useful to instead look at incidence rates—usually expressed as the number of deaths per 100,000 people. Standardizing the denominator across all groups offers a very different picture.
“Unvaccinated people had eight times the rate of death as compared to people who only had a primary series,” suggesting that boosters increase the level of protection.

It is also important to consider the ages of those who are dying. People 65 and older make up the group that is both the most likely to be vaccinated (and boosted) and the most likely to die of COVID. (Being older is one of the biggest risk factors for severe COVID because the immune system weakens with age.) So when you separate the age groups, it becomes even clearer that vaccination reduces the risk of death. And because immune protection from vaccination wanes with time, and because some older people do not mount a good immune response to the primary series, being boosted reduces that risk even further.
Weekly average deaths as of Mar 2022, the smaller group of unvaccinated account for a higher weekly average than the larger group of single-course vaccinated and boosted combined.

I imagine that with less people masking up in the coming flu season, the flu will take its toll on the vulnerable. This doesn't mean that we can in good conscience shut down the world because of the flu.
uziq
Member
+476|2878

Dilbert_X wrote:

Omicron isn't mild, its killing plenty of people despite them being vaccinated.

BA5 has pretty well escaped the vaccines no?
omicron is mild for triple vaccinated/recently boostered.

if there’s a lot of people who refuse to look after their health, 3 years into a pandemic, then that’s on them. you can’t close a border for 5 years to cater to people who are anti-vax. again, not a policy.
Cybargs
Moderated
+2,277|6142

uziq wrote:

Dilbert_X wrote:

Omicron isn't mild, its killing plenty of people despite them being vaccinated.

BA5 has pretty well escaped the vaccines no?
omicron is mild for triple vaccinated/recently boostered.

if there’s a lot of people who refuse to look after their health, 3 years into a pandemic, then that’s on them. you can’t close a border for 5 years to cater to people who are anti-vax. again, not a policy.
the cull is working and great for the labour market. covid has been the best thing for employees in the long run.
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Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,786|5532|eXtreme to the maX

uziq wrote:

omicron is mild for triple vaccinated/recently boostered.
Unless they're old, or immunocompromised etc - for them its anything but mild.

if there’s a lot of people who refuse to look after their health, 3 years into a pandemic, then that’s on them. you can’t close a border for 5 years to cater to people who are anti-vax. again, not a policy.
The effectiveness of the vaccine is poor at best and fades fast. At 90% effectiveness 10% of triple vaccinated/recently boostered stand a fair chance of dying.

90% Is well over-optimistic and it fades to nothing after 3-4 months.
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Cybargs
Moderated
+2,277|6142

Dilbert_X wrote:

uziq wrote:

omicron is mild for triple vaccinated/recently boostered.
Unless they're old, or immunocompromised etc - for them its anything but mild.
wear an n95 mask.
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uziq
Member
+476|2878

Cybargs wrote:

Dilbert_X wrote:

uziq wrote:

omicron is mild for triple vaccinated/recently boostered.
Unless they're old, or immunocompromised etc - for them its anything but mild.
wear an n95 mask.
precisely. every society has elderly and vulnerable people. those same people are vulnerable to flu or any other number of seasonal illnesses.

smart shielding, booster rollouts, social distancing guidelines for the most vulnerable; all this makes sense. closing the borders permanently because old people are always at risk … how the fuck is this a policy? we are never going to extirpate covid with lockdowns, dilbert.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,786|5532|eXtreme to the maX
Erm yes we could have, nations could have been sealed off, locked down and covid eradicated.
Any nations which failed - bad luck for them.

Multiple nations succeeded, reopening travel to failed nations did for them.
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unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+1,998|6198|USA

and we're back here again ooooommmmggghg
uziq
Member
+476|2878

Dilbert_X wrote:

Erm yes we could have, nations could have been sealed off, locked down and covid eradicated.
Any nations which failed - bad luck for them.

Multiple nations succeeded, reopening travel to failed nations did for them.
nope. new zealand, taiwan, south korea and china all failed because of cluster outbreaks escaping from their facilities.

locking down borders did not extinguish covid at all. the NZ government declared it an impossibility, for one.

you are deluded. and highly, highly repetitious. again, you haven't had anything new to say in 18 months. sad!
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,786|5532|eXtreme to the maX

uziq wrote:

nope. new zealand, taiwan, south korea and china all failed because of cluster outbreaks escaping from their facilities.

locking down borders did not extinguish covid at all. the NZ government declared it an impossibility, for one.
They didn't lock them down well enough.
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uziq
Member
+476|2878
china had a pre-omicron escape case of an incoming 'essential' traveler who had spent 90 days in various quarantines and had taken no fewer than 6/7 tests. he still ended up introducing an unsymptomatic, test-evasive cluster of covid cases into a major chinese city.

omicron, and its more recent subvariants, are an order of magnitude more contagious than even that losing scenario in the delta era.

sorry, your fantasy of total control is very silly and very infantile stuff. aren't engineers trained to put up with acceptable margins of error?

Last edited by uziq (2022-08-01 02:59:08)

unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+1,998|6198|USA

Dilbert_X wrote:

They didn't lock them down well enough.
There wasn't going to be a "perfect lockdown" unless a country could lock everyone into individual closets and have robots perform essential tasks. You're chasing a pipe dream, not actionable measures.

Last edited by unnamednewbie13 (2022-08-01 02:59:38)

uziq
Member
+476|2878

unnamednewbie13 wrote:

There wasn't going to be a "perfect lockdown" unless a country could lock everyone into individual closets and have robots perform essential tasks. You're chasing a pipe dream, not actionable measures.
this guy expects international freight and deliveries to keep functioning ... lmao. whilst also simultaneously managing complete border sterility.

would be almost funny if he wasn't so stubborn about it.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,786|5532|eXtreme to the maX

uziq wrote:

china had a pre-omicron escape case of an incoming 'essential' traveler who had spent 90 days in various quarantines and had taken no fewer than 6/7 tests. he still ended up introducing an unsymptomatic, test-evasive cluster of covid cases into a major chinese city.
Presumably that wasn't 90 days straight, so is irrevelant.

sorry, your fantasy of total control is very silly and very infantile stuff. aren't engineers trained to put up with acceptable margins of error?
Engineers are the ones trained to manage error and risk, maybe we should have a go at running things - everyone else has failed.
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uziq
Member
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yes, it was 90 days straight. why don't you check your basic fucking facts before you keep arguing your lost cause?

Engineers are the ones trained to manage error and risk
presumably you're also trained to only manage risk in areas in which you have provable expertise. so why are you arguing against the wisdom of the entire world's epidemiological community, who have been looking at the stats and models for the last 3 years?

for all your high-talk of engineers' suitability to run society as an elite cadre of super-intellectuals, all i see from you, time and time again, is 'dilbert knows best'. when dilbert, it turns out, is laughably ignorant.

Last edited by uziq (2022-08-01 03:21:19)

Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,786|5532|eXtreme to the maX

uziq wrote:

why are you arguing against the wisdom of the entire world's epidemiological community, who have been looking at the stats and models for the last 3 years?
Because they've failed?
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uziq
Member
+476|2878
what if i told you ... the objective of zero covid globally ... is as unattainable as the objective of a perfectly accident-free mode of transport ... make u think!
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,786|5532|eXtreme to the maX
What if you're wrong?

Given that various countries have proven you wrong what is your point?

If every country had had the wit of NZ or Australia this thing would have been dead in six months.

If the Chinese had not been dishonest it would have never even escaped.
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uziq
Member
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jesus christ you are dense. NZ and australia both FAILED, by their OWN ADMISSION, once highly virulent strains turned up. anything after delta could not be handled in 'reasonable' quarantine measures, meaning keeping people sealed up for 14–30 days, tested repeatedly, etc. delta+ strains were STILL escaping.

the fucking PM of new zealand is on record saying, verbatim, that their zero-covid policy was INADEQUATE for the new variants.

and still you're here telling me "you're wrong, new zealand managed it no problem".

jesus fucking christ dude. you are a stubborn moron.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,786|5532|eXtreme to the maX
Um nope.

Australia gave up. The experts said vaccines had solved everything, no need for any precautions, no need for masks, and the business bigwigs wanted to get their businesses back on track - which is to say Alan Joyce wanted to make his bonuses.

So Australia opened up and here we are - one of the worst death rates in the world.

Last edited by Dilbert_X (2022-08-01 04:03:38)

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unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+1,998|6198|USA

That's a bit of a callous way to put it dilbert, "the business bigwigs blah blah blah" yeah sure that really applies to someone's small time book store or the mom & pop coffee shop on the corner. People have been ruined and have lost their homes. Not really equivalent to business bigwigs hiding out on their yachts, is it.
uziq
Member
+476|2878

Dilbert_X wrote:

Um nope.

Australia gave up. The experts said vaccines had solved everything, no need for any precautions, no need for masks, and the business bigwigs wanted to get their businesses back on track - which is to say Alan Joyce wanted to make his bonuses.

So Australia opened up and here we are - one of the worst death rates in the word.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl … 31726.html
"“With this outbreak and Delta, the return to zero [Covid cases] is incredibly difficult,” Ms Ardern said."

the abandonment of zero covid in new zealand, as well as in taiwan and south korea, was driven entirely by a realistic assessment of the chances of quarantine/isolation and testing to catch and suppress every case of delta/delta+. that's literally how events unfolded across most of the world.

your bug-eyed idea that every country abandoned zero covid because of some cabal of 'businessmen who wanted their profits' is loony. shut the fuck up already on this topic.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,786|5532|eXtreme to the maX
Here we weren't under lockdown most of the time, most business was fine and the ones which weren't were subsidised.

'Opening up' has crippled us.
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uziq
Member
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yes, because every economy on earth is in a position to subsidise its businesses for 5+ years, or whatever other interminable amount of time you deem necessary for lockdowns and border closures to magically erase covid.

because every economy on earth has the same profile and characteristics as the australian economy. nevermind a nation like south korea, for instance, made up overwhelmingly of small business owners and family enterprises, who were crippled by (ineffectual and inadequate) lockdown measures without any financial support from the government.

let's play dilbert's favourite game: 'i'm alright, jack'! oh, your state of 1.7 million people were fine? tell me more!!!!



nevermind that we are facing once-in-a-century levels of generational debt now. some of the biggest bailouts in financial history. 'it was working fine'. lol. the macroeconomic forecast for the next few years would beg to disagree with you.

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