KEN-JENNINGS
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I got my booster and the seasonal flu jab at the same time. Smart thing to do.
uziq
Member
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https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/ … ores-covid

LMAO at this. those wily fucking serbs. this is *chef's kiss* level serbian behaviour. milosevic would be proud.
unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+2,053|6742|PNW

serbia strong

uziq
Member
+492|3423
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr … prevention

eminently sensible comment from the professor in one of the anglophone world's most renowned chairs for public health.

For policymakers, it’s a bit like landing an aeroplane on an icy landing strip. The fuel of public patience is running low; and wear and tear, in the form of economic and social damage, has built up over two years in a holding pattern. The need to land is obvious, and we have the tools to do so, but it’s still a tricky feat in current conditions.

There are now clearly three camps of scientists voicing opinions on what is happening and what to do in the coming weeks. This can be confusing for the public.

The first group still seem to see the virus as the same deadly one of March 2020, despite the massive scientific progress in managing it, and they suggest extremely cautious measures. [i.e. dilbert] The second say they’ve been right all along in that mass infection is unavoidable; this is the “let it rip” group. They ignore the dramatic difference that mass vaccinations and treatments have made – avoiding serious illness from Covid-19 now is wholly different from 2020. [i.e. jay]

The third group – where I sit – have evolved their position as the data and tools, namely vaccines and therapeutics, have also evolved to transform Covid-19 into something more akin to other infectious diseases that we control and manage. [i.e. me] My analysis has consistently responded to the latest evidence.

First, we now have safe and effective vaccines that protect the vast majority of people from hospitalisation and death. Recent data from the UK Health Security Agency shows that unvaccinated people are between three and eight times more likely to be hospitalised with Covid-19. Early in the Omicron wave, New Yorkers who were not vaccinated were more than eight times more likely to be hospitalised than New Yorkers who were fully vaccinated. If everyone who was offered a vaccine and booster would take it, the pandemic would be effectively over in richer countries.

And while our current vaccines don’t stop us getting infected, major investment is being made in next-generation vaccines that offer sterilizing immunity, meaning they stop infection completely in those getting two doses.

Next, we have exciting home treatments on the horizon for Covid-19, two in particular. The first is Pfizer’s Paxlovid and the second is Merck’s molnupiravir. Both are seen by scientists as groundbreaking because early trial data showed they significantly reduced the chances of hospitalisation and death in high-risk patients. The pills aren’t affected by new variants such as Omicron as they don’t target the spike protein where most mutations have occurred. And unlike vaccines, which must be taken weeks before infection to be effective, these treatments can help fight active infections.

Antivirals need to be tied to a good diagnostic system as the pills need to be taken as soon as possible after confirming Covid-19 diagnosis and symptoms. This means we need a smooth system for getting tested, getting a prescription from a medical professional and starting the course of oral pills. Although, because of current supply issues, rather than general population use they will be targeted at older people and those who are more vulnerable due to health conditions such as heart disease, cancer or diabetes.
good god ... have i not been saying this exact same spiel for the last 3 months?

What does all this mean in terms of living with Covid-19? We still need to test. We still need to vaccinate and combat misinformation. We need to encourage people to wear medical-grade masks such as N95s in crowded and indoor settings. Employers need to recognise and support employees who have been identified as in a shielding group. We also need to review isolation and other policies so they remain safe, but are less disruptive to the functioning of society.

We will still need to monitor Covid-19 in public health, as we do other diseases. When people say it will be “endemic”, that doesn’t mean harmless. Endemic means that we accept a circulation of a disease because elimination or eradication is perceived as too difficult. Malaria, dengue and measles are endemic in certain parts of the world even though they are all serious diseases. Malaria was endemic in the United States until the government decided to eliminate it.

This is part of a larger question about how much we continue to alter what “normal” social relations are, given the circulation of Sars-CoV-2. Humans are social: we need to hug, dance, sing and recognise each other’s faces and smiles. A sense of community and connection are vital to wellbeing too. Public health is not about one disease; it is broadly about wellbeing, which includes mental health and being able to pay the rent, feed your family, stay warm through winter and have a meaningful role in society.

Slowing the spread of Sars-CoV-2, even stopping it completely in certain countries, helped save lives. It allowed two transformative antiviral pills to be made available. It allowed doctors to develop better ways of treating patients, and to understand what we’re facing. It allowed a better understanding of transmission and risk.

But now, two years into this pandemic, we need to find a better way of living alongside Sars-CoV-2 using the tools we have. We have created ways to minimise the impact of Covid-19. And now is the time to start to recover and heal as a society and move forward, treating this virus like we do other infectious disease threats.
dilbert: buT wE shOuldNT lIsteN to tHe viRoloGistS wHo aRe plUggiNg vaCCines

Last edited by uziq (2022-01-19 15:53:53)

uziq
Member
+492|3423
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr … sa-holders

dilbert: lockdowns and travel bans had absolutely zero economic effects. it was just a myth. only greedy universities with their tuition fees etc etc

btw yesterday the WHO put out an official bulletin advising that travel bans should be stopped worldwide as they are totally ineffective against omicron. boy oh boy does that sound familiar …

Last edited by uziq (2022-01-19 23:25:21)

Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,810|6077|eXtreme to the maX
When have I said lockdowns have no effect?
As someone who has aspirations to be a STEM nerd you should know not to invent datapoints then hang an argument on them.

There are plenty of scientists and health professionals who are sure vaccines are barely a stopgap and its transmission which needs to be curtailed.
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uziq
Member
+492|3423
read the long post.

and do kindly remember what you were saying about the australian economy being fine in perpetuity ‘living in a covid-protected bubble’. perhaps you were hysterical again and have conveniently forgot. it’s fewer than 10 pages back in this thread.

‘once again we’ve basically had life as normal here for the last two years’ you said, multiple times. err, unless you’re one of those people who had a payrolled job in those gigantic lockdown downturns, i guess?

‘aspiring STEM type’. yes, my habit of wanting citations and studies, facts and figures, isn’t at all a product of a basic level of common sense. it’s because i’m envious of you, dilbert! and your amazing mind!

Last edited by uziq (2022-01-19 23:43:42)

uziq
Member
+492|3423
by the way talk about hanging arguments on carefully selected data points … you haven’t mentioned WA in 24 hours. are you feeling alright? i need to hear more about Perth

“australians are all happy, overwhelmingly happy, WA just polled 94% happy, yuuuge numbers, so all australians are clearly in support … except those idiots and elites on the east coast, especially that majority who make up the two main cities … horribly distorting to the statistics … just a damn shame you people in the media focus on them, you’re really so unfair, you’re bad people, just the worst people, you know that? fake nuuwz … real australians are so happy, the happiest ever, in fact, i’ve never seen such good numbers in any politics ever as this recent poll in WA … the fine people of WA …”

Last edited by uziq (2022-01-20 00:07:07)

Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,810|6077|eXtreme to the maX
WA, SA, NT, TAS, QLD, ACT were all doing fine and people were happy, NSW and Vic were fucked but that was their own stupidity.

"But Omicron is inevitable"
Since the start of 2021 WA's daily numbers have never exceeded 20, until our dear leaders decided "everyone has to get covid" SA, NT, TAS, QLD, ACT hadn't exceeded 20 either.

Feel free to dig through the data.

This is what a bad day in WA looks like, five new cases, total of 79 active cases, contact tracing still functioning, state not in lockdown.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-20/ … /100769100

You're still pushing the idea of herd immunity, there are plenty of people better educated than you think this is a dangerous waste of time.

Last edited by Dilbert_X (2022-01-20 00:41:01)

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uziq
Member
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i never pushed the idea of herd immunity at all. i said it would be fortuitous if a mild and highly infectious form of covid became the main strain, as it would actually have the knock-on effect of increasing immunity to more serious forms of illness.

take a look at the studies on post-omicron immunity to delta/other strains. would you look at that … recovering from omicron has miraculous properties!!!

remind me again how many people have died of omicron?

i still can’t believe you’re plugging the idea that WA’s model is exportable to a world. with omicron. a place with 1 million people and a population density of 300 people per square kilometre. a place that’s 4 hours and 1000kms away from any place else. hahahah. and when i pointed this out to you last time, you mutely mumbled and segued into some bullshit about ‘we shouldn’t listen only to virologists mmmf mmmmf mmmf’.

Last edited by uziq (2022-01-20 00:42:54)

Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,810|6077|eXtreme to the maX

uziq wrote:

i never pushed the idea of herd immunity at all.
i said it would be fortuitous if a mild and highly infectious form of covid became the main strain, as it would actually have the knock-on effect of increasing immunity to more serious forms of illness.

uziq wrote:

i never pushed the idea of herd immunity at all.
i said it would be fortuitous if a mild and highly infectious form of covid became the main strain, as it would actually have the knock-on effect of increasing immunity to more serious forms of illness.

uziq wrote:

i never pushed the idea of herd immunity at all.
i said it would be fortuitous if a mild and highly infectious form of covid became the main strain, as it would actually have the knock-on effect of increasing immunity to more serious forms of illness.

uziq wrote:

i never pushed the idea of herd immunity at all.
i said it would be fortuitous if a mild and highly infectious form of covid became the main strain, as it would actually have the knock-on effect of increasing immunity to more serious forms of illness.
Mind blown
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uziq
Member
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‘herd immunity’ advocates were people early in the pandemic who encouraged ‘let her rip’. it’s synonymous as a policy with keeping everything open with zero precautions and assuming that high community transmission will generate a lasting group immunity.

i’ve said no such thing. i’m talking about ‘living with covid’ as a manageable and endemic disease – which is the mainstream scientific consensus – not advocating for ‘pursuing herd immunity’. unlike you, i do understand that lasting immunity from passive infection is impossible. unlike you, i’m comfortable with the notion that covid will require regular vaccine boosters and updates.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,810|6077|eXtreme to the maX
it would be fortuitous if a mild and highly infectious form of covid became the main strain, as it would actually have the knock-on effect of increasing immunity to more serious forms of illness.
If thats not herd immunity then what is?
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uziq
Member
+492|3423
as in, if a mild strain outcompeted the others, it would be a benison from nature. most pandemics go this way historically. it’s not been human interventions which have stopped them. they evolve into less dangerous or less virulent forms and fade away into obsolescence or endemic status.

‘pursuing herd immunity’ as a public health policy has been associated with actively encouraging people to get sick – particularly the young, the healthy, the working population, etc, – and go about their lives without any precautions; ‘herd immunity will be reached and we will defeat the virus’. i’ve never said we will ‘defeat’ covid by all getting sick. i said it would be a ‘fortuitous’ development if the main strain globally happens to be a mild strain. it makes public health responses, returning to normalcy with prudent testing/distancing/over the counter treatment/etc. a much more feasible proposition. getting sick when going to work won’t now mean serious illness or death; and after you’ve caught it, much like a case of flu, you’ll be back on your feet and immune for the next year. this is what dealing with an ‘endemic’ illness looks like, dilbert. we no more ‘pursue herd immunity’ for flu, in this regard. we tolerate transmission in the community on a residual or cyclical level because we know it is tolerable. and getting sick doesn’t mean weeks out of work, in social isolation, or losing your job, or being sent to remote quarantine facilities; it becomes a minor inconvenience once every few years. you know, like any other endemic illness we constantly vaccinate against and sometimes shoulder when it comes our way and breaks through our immune defences.

boy do i feel like i have to repeat myself often to you. like a bird chewing and regurgitating food so a frail chick can digest it. 

you cite ‘scientists and experts’ but the simple fact, really, is that there’s no public health body or government on the planet who still advocate for suppression or reversing the tide of covid. from the WHO’s global organisation on down to individual states ‘going their own way’, the message now is: get vaccinated, get boostered, take precautions. only cranks and extremists are still making their shrill cries for wide lockdowns and ‘circuit breakers’ which last for months or interminably. that’s because they don’t work and the social+economic costs of pursuing this extreme route are too high, as we go into year 3-4 of the pandemic. doubly so now that we are dealing with a MILD ILLNESS with a RANGE of VACCINES, ANTIVIRALS and WORKING HOSPITAL TREATMENTS.

Last edited by uziq (2022-01-20 02:53:44)

uziq
Member
+492|3423
and, FOR THE LAST TIME …

please stop talking about how a low-population, remote island dealt with covid in the first year. we know it worked for you. more relevantly, quarantines for travellers, testing+tracing, social distancing, etc, worked for high-population megalopolises like south korea and taiwan. much more instructive for the rest of the world. and the rest of the world learned lessons, often times very painful ones.  BUT, and this is the pivot, the flashpoint in the pandemic which you persistently seem to have missed (or want to ignore): even these world-leading examples in pandemic response have started to buckle. the change came with delta and strains which are orders of magnitude more infectious/virulent/persistent than the year 1 strains. there’s no high-pop/high-density, urban population on the planet who have managed to beat back delta+ using the ‘working’ tools and ‘great’ strategies of the previous year. furthermore, the populations of these places – and that includes sydney/melbourne – are fed up, are tired, are economically struggling, are socially burnt out, are behaviourally at their limit. human beings are not machines or variables in a formula and can’t keep repeating the ‘working’ strategies of year 1, which in fact no longer work, with perfect resilience, especially in the face of mounting evidence that the virus is trumping their efforts and sacrifices anyway. that’s IT. suppression is TOAST as a strategy.

it's honestly just amazing to me that you keep frittering away at the highly effective vaccines we have at our disposal, which have delivered us away from the clutches of mass death and overwhelming ICU admissions, by saying 'yes but no more than 80% of people will never take them', and then advocate for MASS LOCKDOWNS and INDEFINITE CLOSED BORDERS. as if 80%+ of fucking people are ready to abide by year1 mass lockdown rules again!

Last edited by uziq (2022-01-20 02:50:11)

unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+2,053|6742|PNW

from pandemic imgur:

A friend of mine, aged 48, with 4 children, fully vaccinated, died last week 3 days after testing positive.  He died of 106 fever, apparently.  I say apparently because his ex-wife refuses to even acknowledge his death or discuss any details, and his family won't even write an obituary,  since they don't believe in pandemics. She posts on Facebook like nothing happened.

This was a nice guy, educated, last photos on his Facebook were him and his kids at Disneyworld.  Ex wife was horrible when they were married, and now it looks like the only ceremony this guy will get is a few personal friends getting together and having a few drinks.

I know life moves on, but this death is just going to be not even recognized even though he had many friends.
unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+2,053|6742|PNW

via nyt:

https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesm … e&ip=0

unrelated, but also in the comments:

SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+634|3690
IIRC, the people back then thought it would be a good thing because they can grow more food in warm weather.
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+2,053|6742|PNW

That's … an argument made now.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,810|6077|eXtreme to the maX

uziq wrote:

and, FOR THE LAST TIME …

please stop talking about how a low-population, remote island dealt with covid in the first year. we know it worked for you. more relevantly, quarantines for travellers, testing+tracing, social distancing, etc, worked for high-population megalopolises like south korea and taiwan. much more instructive for the rest of the world. and the rest of the world learned lessons, often times very painful ones.  BUT, and this is the pivot, the flashpoint in the pandemic which you persistently seem to have missed (or want to ignore): even these world-leading examples in pandemic response have started to buckle. the change came with delta and strains which are orders of magnitude more infectious/virulent/persistent than the year 1 strains. there’s no high-pop/high-density, urban population on the planet who have managed to beat back delta+ using the ‘working’ tools and ‘great’ strategies of the previous year. furthermore, the populations of these places – and that includes sydney/melbourne – are fed up, are tired, are economically struggling, are socially burnt out, are behaviourally at their limit. human beings are not machines or variables in a formula and can’t keep repeating the ‘working’ strategies of year 1, which in fact no longer work, with perfect resilience, especially in the face of mounting evidence that the virus is trumping their efforts and sacrifices anyway. that’s IT. suppression is TOAST as a strategy.

it's honestly just amazing to me that you keep frittering away at the highly effective vaccines we have at our disposal, which have delivered us away from the clutches of mass death and overwhelming ICU admissions, by saying 'yes but no more than 80% of people will never take them', and then advocate for MASS LOCKDOWNS and INDEFINITE CLOSED BORDERS. as if 80%+ of fucking people are ready to abide by year1 mass lockdown rules again!
FOR THE LAST TIME

I'm not advocating lockdowns, just closed borders and quarantine.

Just think, if the world weren't so overpopulated and obsessed with travel we wouldn't be in this mess.
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uziq
Member
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every single organisation has stated that travel bans make no difference. even hardcore enthusiasts for travel restrictions and quarantines, like korea, who aren’t known for making the most rational policy when it comes to foreigners (especially black or indian ones), are lifting their travel bans on the ‘omicron’ nations.

doesn’t work. omicron and delta got into china and NZ even with travel bans. they came in on essential travellers who jumped through all the hoops. when variants are that hardy and evasive, it really makes no sense to permanently complicate travel for zero measurable result.

proposing travel bans as a measure that will have anything like a dent on the pandemic situation on your country is laughable. want to know what will make the biggest difference? you got it … VACCINATION.

Last edited by uziq (2022-01-20 17:05:11)

Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,810|6077|eXtreme to the maX
There's ample 'measurable result', nations largely free of COVID even with omicron.

Once again, vaccination is making zero difference to infection or transmission - guaranteeing development of the next variant.
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uziq
Member
+492|3423
the next variants are going to come regardless. there will always be new variants. why are you still talking as if we can slow or stop covid now? we cannot.

omicron was varying and mutating from day 1 of its mutation.

you’d know this if you read anything. but, surprise. you don’t.

https://i.imgur.com/uaImLQI.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/s39laQw.jpg

next-generation vaccines will be much better at halting infection/transmissibility. as, you know, they will be designed for omicron.

antiviral pills will work against EVERY variant. because they don’t target the spike protein or need to ‘disable’ the virus’s mechanics. get your thick head around that, dilbert: we will have MULTIPLE types of PILLS that you can take at home when you test positive for covid and which will PREVENT SERIOUS ILLNESS.

can you stop ranting about mutations and waning vaccine effectivity now? it’s scientifically illiterate bollocks. science has defanged this thing; it’s mutated by its own accord into a more mild illness, furthermore; barely anyone is dying of omicron globally. there is no need to sit in your own state and suffer another year of vastly reduced freedoms and living quality. NONE. your fetish for big time wasteful displays of authority is creepy.
uziq
Member
+492|3423
There's ample 'measurable result', nations largely free of COVID even with omicron.
such as? not a single ‘zero covid’ nation is free of omicron. it will soon account for the majority of all new cases in south korea. taiwan have an escalating outbreak. new zealand has omicron. china has omicron.

omicron’s rate of spread is unprecedented. it goes from one small leak or cluster to the most dominant strain in under a month.

where are these countries who, using dilbert’s ‘borders for dummies’ guidebook, are blessedly free of omicron and charlie sheen #winning?
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,810|6077|eXtreme to the maX
We have a single variant which is more mild, all the other variants have been worse.
Who is to say what form the next variant will take?
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