Jay would huffily tell you all about how you want the world to suffer so you can spend another Christmas with your gundams.
If only someone had foreseen this we'd have had time to prepare.
https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Globa … t_2006.pdf
Pandemics
Over the past year, the risk of an H5N1 or other avian flu pandemic has generated increasing anxiety in much of the world. If the avian flu H5N1
virus mutates to enable human-to-human transmission, it may disrupt our global society and economy in an unprecedented way and claim
human life at levels close to the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu pandemic. The 1918 flu infected half the world and between 40 and 50 million people
died.
The other two flu pandemics of the last
century – in 1957 and 1968 – were less severe.
The World Health Organization has disclosed estimates of potential deaths in a full-fledged avian
flu pandemic of between 2 and 7.4 million, up to a worst-case of between 20 and 40 million deaths.
But this is dependent on the mutation of the virus allowing it to be spread rapidly from human
to human.
A conflation scenario for H5N1
New pandemics such as SARS (before its emergence) and human variants of avian flu lie on the continuum between unknown (u) and unknowable (U) risks. Unlike human flu or animal foot and mouth disease – where it is known that outbreaks will reoccur and past experience provides a reasonably
accurate guide as to their impact – new viral diseases evolve and cause death and secondary economic damage in unpredictable ways.
Global interconnectivity has vastly increased the opportunities for the emergence and rapid transmission of disease and the myriad linkages in the global economy enable systemic economic, social and political contagion as well.
The following is a brief sketch of the possible conflationary impacts of a major human outbreak.
Several cities in East Asia suffer major outbreaks of human-to-human transmission. International travel is severely affected, pandemic-specific vaccine supplies are secured and security authorities prepare for external contingencies and domestic insurgency. Emergency supply chain management is instituted, based on the possibility that 50% of those infected die. Commodities and services needed to survive for one to three years are identified. Non-critical industries reduce output or close. Even with full-scale vaccine production in nine countries with 12% of the global population, fewer than 500 million people (14% of the world’s population) can be vaccinated in a year.
An outbreak of H5N1 human-to-human transmission could have devastating impacts globally across all social and economic sectors, disrupting efficient processes, severely degrading response capabilities and exacerbating the effects of known weaknesses in different systems. These impacts might include:
the disruption of supply chains and trade flows; an exacerbation of financial imbalances and the transformation of intellectual property regimes for pharmaceutical products;
rioting to gain access to scarce supplies of antivirals and vaccines; a collapse of public order;
partial de-urbanization as people flee population centres; the extinction of trust in governments; decimation of specific human skill sets;
and forced, large-scale migration, associated with the further collapse of already weak states.
In such a scenario, the impact on society might be as profound as that which followed the Black Death in Europe in 1348. That plague caused a fundamental transformation of socio-economic relations in Europe. The deaths of an estimated one third of the European population of the time created a shortage of labour, undermining an economy based on serfdom, and effecting a shift in the relative values of capital and labour. Scarcity of labour resources brought about a wage-based economy in which the value of skills was efficiently priced.
https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Globa … t_2006.pdf
Pandemics
Over the past year, the risk of an H5N1 or other avian flu pandemic has generated increasing anxiety in much of the world. If the avian flu H5N1
virus mutates to enable human-to-human transmission, it may disrupt our global society and economy in an unprecedented way and claim
human life at levels close to the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu pandemic. The 1918 flu infected half the world and between 40 and 50 million people
died.
The other two flu pandemics of the last
century – in 1957 and 1968 – were less severe.
The World Health Organization has disclosed estimates of potential deaths in a full-fledged avian
flu pandemic of between 2 and 7.4 million, up to a worst-case of between 20 and 40 million deaths.
But this is dependent on the mutation of the virus allowing it to be spread rapidly from human
to human.
A conflation scenario for H5N1
New pandemics such as SARS (before its emergence) and human variants of avian flu lie on the continuum between unknown (u) and unknowable (U) risks. Unlike human flu or animal foot and mouth disease – where it is known that outbreaks will reoccur and past experience provides a reasonably
accurate guide as to their impact – new viral diseases evolve and cause death and secondary economic damage in unpredictable ways.
Global interconnectivity has vastly increased the opportunities for the emergence and rapid transmission of disease and the myriad linkages in the global economy enable systemic economic, social and political contagion as well.
The following is a brief sketch of the possible conflationary impacts of a major human outbreak.
Several cities in East Asia suffer major outbreaks of human-to-human transmission. International travel is severely affected, pandemic-specific vaccine supplies are secured and security authorities prepare for external contingencies and domestic insurgency. Emergency supply chain management is instituted, based on the possibility that 50% of those infected die. Commodities and services needed to survive for one to three years are identified. Non-critical industries reduce output or close. Even with full-scale vaccine production in nine countries with 12% of the global population, fewer than 500 million people (14% of the world’s population) can be vaccinated in a year.
An outbreak of H5N1 human-to-human transmission could have devastating impacts globally across all social and economic sectors, disrupting efficient processes, severely degrading response capabilities and exacerbating the effects of known weaknesses in different systems. These impacts might include:
the disruption of supply chains and trade flows; an exacerbation of financial imbalances and the transformation of intellectual property regimes for pharmaceutical products;
rioting to gain access to scarce supplies of antivirals and vaccines; a collapse of public order;
partial de-urbanization as people flee population centres; the extinction of trust in governments; decimation of specific human skill sets;
and forced, large-scale migration, associated with the further collapse of already weak states.
In such a scenario, the impact on society might be as profound as that which followed the Black Death in Europe in 1348. That plague caused a fundamental transformation of socio-economic relations in Europe. The deaths of an estimated one third of the European population of the time created a shortage of labour, undermining an economy based on serfdom, and effecting a shift in the relative values of capital and labour. Scarcity of labour resources brought about a wage-based economy in which the value of skills was efficiently priced.
Last edited by Dilbert_X (2022-01-14 00:51:02)
Fuck Israel
yes well done. everyone knew that the world had oodles of reports on this topic. you could even watch disaster scenario porn on natgeo or history channel about global pandemics.
i literally said a few pages ago that having reports written isn’t the same thing as investing hundreds of millions into the necessary systems for permanent standby. reports make recommendations at the end, not magically summon them into being. you claimed the whole world ‘had experience of sars-1 outbreaks’. absolutely not true.
‘if only’ - dilbert’s engineering creed. very great stuff chap.
i literally said a few pages ago that having reports written isn’t the same thing as investing hundreds of millions into the necessary systems for permanent standby. reports make recommendations at the end, not magically summon them into being. you claimed the whole world ‘had experience of sars-1 outbreaks’. absolutely not true.
‘if only’ - dilbert’s engineering creed. very great stuff chap.
Last edited by uziq (2022-01-14 02:07:38)
It was expected that the first world would perform well in a cornavirus scenario. Politicization of a pandemic was unanticipated in one of the studies I linked before. Epidemiologists will have to make sure and take Trump, Bolsonaro, etc. factors into consideration in their models now I guess. People in high levels of government sabotaging their own countries' countermeasures efforts.
even western nations who were considered 'most prepared' had built their models' assumptions precisely on the flu and spanish influenza as the main antecedent. the UK staged huge simulations and ran national-level wargames on just such an outbreak (famously 'operation cygnet', in 2008). these all took as certain fundamental assumptions that the onset of the next pandemic-level outbreak would be similar to flu.
sars-cov-2's infection profile is nothing like flu. and, unlike sars-1, it is radically different in its early onset and main window of infectivity, too. even with all the best will in the world, i really think the first few months of any outbreak were going to be a mess, regardless. the only countries that could quickly pivot to the right footing were ones which had very recently just de-escalated from their own major epidemic response measures.
dilbert's report mentions H5N1, avian and swine flus (and rightly so, the US has had several major swine flu epidemics, with a sizeable number of deaths, in the 21s century already). but sars-cov-2 is NOT H5N1.
sars-cov-2's infection profile is nothing like flu. and, unlike sars-1, it is radically different in its early onset and main window of infectivity, too. even with all the best will in the world, i really think the first few months of any outbreak were going to be a mess, regardless. the only countries that could quickly pivot to the right footing were ones which had very recently just de-escalated from their own major epidemic response measures.
dilbert's report mentions H5N1, avian and swine flus (and rightly so, the US has had several major swine flu epidemics, with a sizeable number of deaths, in the 21s century already). but sars-cov-2 is NOT H5N1.
Last edited by uziq (2022-01-14 02:51:21)
Nahunnamednewbie13 wrote:
Jay would huffily tell you all about how you want the world to suffer so you can spend another Christmas with your gundams.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
-Frederick Bastiat
Holy crap dude, how's it going? How's your deck?
don't dignify it with a response.
- SuperJail Warden
- Gone Forever
- +641|3965
I have like so many questions but let's start with the deck...
Turned out well, thanksunnamednewbie13 wrote:
Holy crap dude, how's it going? How's your deck?
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
-Frederick Bastiat
Sure, go aheadSuperJail Warden wrote:
I have like so many questions but let's start with the deck...
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
-Frederick Bastiat
- SuperJail Warden
- Gone Forever
- +641|3965
First things first, thanks for coming back. I hope all is well. I am interested in hearing your thoughts about a lot of things. New perspective yadda yadda.Jay wrote:
Sure, go aheadSuperJail Warden wrote:
I have like so many questions but let's start with the deck...
1: 2016 Election. Outcome, fraud, Jan 6?
2: COVID vaccinated? Mandates?
3: CRT in Schools?
4: George Floyd?
https://m.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=2 … WlmV9Wedck
well holy shit ... look at that. one of the world's leading nations for pandemic management has just devised a system that makes good fucking sense, considering omicron's infection profile.When the inevitable omicron explosion descends on South Korea, the kind of restrictive approach to dealing with the virus will have run its course, top officials say.
In a news briefing Friday, the Health and Economy ministries said Korea will focus on keeping its businesses and other aspects of daily life as open as possible once the new variant starts dominating the scene.
The characteristics of omicron called for “a shift in a paradigm toward a more flexible response,” said Health Minister Kwon Deok-cheol.
“When omicron becomes dominant, cases are almost certain to rise significantly, in which case Korea will start pursuing a targeted protection of people at higher risk rather than control of the entire community, as it has been so far,” he said.
The threshold for transition to the omicron-specific strategy is 7,000 cases occurring per day, the minister said. For the past week, Korea has been counting an average of around 3,700 daily cases.
When that point comes, the country will ease up on many pillars of its pandemic control.
PCR testing, previously open to anyone wishing to get tested, will be offered primarily to older adults ages 65 and up, close contact of confirmed patients and people who have tested positive in rapid antigen tests. People with COVID-19-like symptoms will need a doctor’s recommendation to get tested.
For the rest, rapid antigen tests or the at-home kits will be the default testing method.
Contact tracing, conducted for close contacts of patients, will operate on an honor system basis. People who are younger than 60 and without existing health conditions can report their itineraries on a smartphone application.
Clinics will be set up to permit home recovery patients access to in-person care without having them take up bed spaces.
The isolation period for patients will be cut from the current 10 days to seven. Close contacts of patients will be tested on sixth day of quarantine to be released on seventh day depending on test results.
Travel bans on 11 countries -- Botswana, Eswatini, Ghana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe -- will end. The mandatory quarantine of 10 days for all arrivals may be adjusted, although the negative PCR testing requirement is likely to remain in place.
This contrasts with lockdown or similarly restrictive steps that other countries like Australia and the Netherlands have taken to counter omicron.
In a release to reporters on the same day the Health Ministry said, “When omicron drives cases up exponentially, the existing ways of responding to the virus may no longer be viable.”
Has it been that long?SuperJail Warden wrote:
First things first, thanks for coming back. I hope all is well. I am interested in hearing your thoughts about a lot of things. New perspective yadda yadda.Jay wrote:
Sure, go aheadSuperJail Warden wrote:
I have like so many questions but let's start with the deck...
1: 2016 Election. Outcome, fraud, Jan 6?
2: COVID vaccinated? Mandates?
3: CRT in Schools?
4: George Floyd?
1. No fraud, but I am happy the voting rights bill won't pass. It is written to favor the activist left, which we all need less of in our lives, not more. January 6th was a bunch of idiots acting the fool but it has been blown entirely out of proportion for political purposes.
2. Sure, I got vaccinated last March. I did it because I knew Cuomo wouldn't relax restrictions until he hit his goal. That was me doing my part. I would not oppose mandates if the vaccine actually prevented infection, but it doesn't. The community protection argument is persuasive only if it were to actually protect the community, rather than just lessening serious illness for individuals. Protecting hospital space is not critical enough in my eyes.
3. Overblown, but real. Enough people have been forced to take DEI training that a garbled, half educated version does make it down to kids. I think DEI in general is an abomination.
4. Only became an issue because it was an election year.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
-Frederick Bastiat
And I'm not back, I just checked in for the first time in months because I'm traveling and bored. This place turned me into an angry person when I was actively here.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
-Frederick Bastiat
no one cares lard ass. get a booster.
- SuperJail Warden
- Gone Forever
- +641|3965
Sorry we made you feel that way.Jay wrote:
And I'm not back, I just checked in for the first time in months because I'm traveling and bored. This place turned me into an angry person when I was actively here.
Why?uziq wrote:
no one cares lard ass. get a booster.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
-Frederick Bastiat
because the kind benevolent scientist men told you it’s good for you, and you don’t want your family turning up in one of those news stories that talk about your death-bed regrets. ‘ayn rand was wrong … i was … betrayed by alex jones …’
- SuperJail Warden
- Gone Forever
- +641|3965
Stop bullying him and Dilbert.
That doesn't answer my question, now does it? Why do I need a booster? What will it do for me?uziq wrote:
because the kind benevolent scientist men told you it’s good for you, and you don’t want your family turning up in one of those news stories that talk about your death-bed regrets. ‘ayn rand was wrong … i was … betrayed by alex jones …’
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
-Frederick Bastiat
- SuperJail Warden
- Gone Forever
- +641|3965
Do you use facemask?
When it's required, but they're about as good at keeping away the covid bogeyman as a rosary prayer is at warding off evil spirits.SuperJail Warden wrote:
Do you use facemask?
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
-Frederick Bastiat
- SuperJail Warden
- Gone Forever
- +641|3965
Trump '24?
- SuperJail Warden
- Gone Forever
- +641|3965
New NYC mayor?