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uziq
Member
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"We're now facing economic situations that are worse than if we'd had an actual lockdown," said economist Jim Stanford, director of the Centre for Future Work.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-11/ … /100749102
erm, yes, but 'circuit breaker' lockdowns, importantly, end. 2 weeks, 4 weeks ... take your pick ... that's far from 'indefinite'.

every covid wave peaks and breaks. omicron seems to have done its worst in SA within about 5-6 weeks. after that, passive immunity (even with a negligible level of reinfections) is high enough for the virus to lose its grip. this has happened with literally every single wave thus far, regardless of the positions adopted by any one country; its guided as much by the pandemic's internal dynamics as anything else. so the damage to the economy from sicknesses and temporary absences due to an omicron wave is only going to last so long. ... which again, sounds a lot less painful than 'indefinite'.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,776|5404|eXtreme to the maX

uziq wrote:

right, just as i thought. 'we can keep this up indefinitely'. no, 95% of the world's population really cannot.
Exactly my point, first world countries can deal with this through vaccinations, lockdowns and quarantines, the likelihood of vaccinating the world to 95% either at all or fast enough to stay ahead of new variants is exactly zero.
I'll be surprised if the world ever gets as high as 70% - this is the perfect situation for vaccine resistant variants to develop.

So vaccines by themselves aren't going to work, no chance whatsoever - whats your plan?

Last edited by Dilbert_X (2022-01-11 04:53:28)

Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,776|5404|eXtreme to the maX

uziq wrote:

every covid wave peaks and breaks. omicron seems to have done its worst in SA within about 5-6 weeks.
er no, positive tests and actual infections are completely decoupled now, there's not the test capacity and people have been told to not bother getting tested.
Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!
uziq
Member
+461|2751

Dilbert_X wrote:

uziq wrote:

every covid wave peaks and breaks. omicron seems to have done its worst in SA within about 5-6 weeks.
er no, positive tests and actual infections are completely decoupled now, there's not the test capacity and people have been told to not bother getting tested.
not in every country. every wave peaks and is either superseded by a new variant or slowly decreases as passive immunity increases. if 1 in 30 people a week are getting infected with omicron, that situation isn't infinitely extensible, dilbert: after a certain point a fifth of the population have already been exposed to it, and it's ability to transmit and spread is greatly retarded (admittedly this effect was more pronounced with earlier variants than omicron).

So vaccines by themselves aren't going to work, no chance whatsoever - whats your plan?
i have said all along that vaccinations are utterly key, but not that they're the only tool at our disposal. we will soon have antivirals and other therapeutics available for everyday use -- big benefit to dealing with the effects, mild or otherwise, of omicron/omicron+.

i have also said all along that testing and contact tracing for travel, major public events, etc, is surely prudent and wise. so long as they can be supplied cheaply/freely and in a form that is easily accessible, those measures seem eminently advisable (and, importantly, practicable) for the next few years. ditto requiring people to be vaccinated to enter certain venues, or to engage in certain group activities; i have no problem, in fact, with airlines enforcing vaccine mandates for long-distance travel.

importantly, though, society should be able to re-open whilst also retaining the above suite of measures. advocating for 'indefinite' lockdown or 'indefinite' closed anything is stupid and unnecessary, at this point. the rates of serious illness and death have been completely decoupled from new cases and, furthermore and importantly, more or less flatlined since we achieved widespread vaccination (+recent boosters). this pandemic is simply not the same beast anymore. the chances of a new wave breaking out in a highly vaccinated population and posing a serious threat of widespread death, as we saw frequently in year 1, is simply not going to happen anymore. therefore having entire cities in clampdowns with people not allowed to leave their residences is fucking insane. it doesn't achieve any measurable result in the medium- or long-term (i.e. the virus resurges anyway in quick order) and it certainly isn't necessary to stem the tide of deaths (vaccines do that, durh).

china is about as good a model as medieval city-states, at this point. larssen and cybargs have very neatly adumbrated why. their covid strategy has been thoroughly politicized at this point, and they're in major face-saving mode; they have the olympics and other huge events of focussed global attention very soon; their vaccine possibly doesn't even work. locking down entire cities would make sense when your basic vaccine is utterly broken, yes. even with our outdated (soon-to-be updated) vaccines, our situation is nothing alike.

Last edited by uziq (2022-01-11 05:03:29)

Cybargs
Moderated
+2,275|6015
if things are so doom and gloom dilbs y arent' you shorting the market like my main man bill "hell is coming" ackman.
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SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+559|3018
I have heard one explanation of why South Africa did so well during the Omicron wave is because the average age of people there is much lower than elsewhere. They are also going through summer right now.
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
uziq
Member
+461|2751
covid isn't really seasonal, though. it raged through brazil and latin america during their 'summers', too. small fluctuations, sure, but not life-savingly so.

the most likely explanation for SA's trajectory is that they've borne the brunt of just about every previous covid wave, face-on. immunity in the population was high from high endemic levels of delta/former variants. therefore omicron was shrugged off pretty easily by the general population. that plus the fact they do have some of the highest rates of vaccination in africa, which, considering omicron's mild nature, probably contributed, too.

their average age is quite astonishingly low, yeah. i agree with that as a likely factor, too. the average age in india is very comparable, though, and they've been annihilated in previous waves. like almost on an american scale levels of bad at some of their peaks.

e: i should add that there's good evidence that south asians are genetically predisposed to more serious respiratory illnesses like covid. but, considering the genetic mix in south africa (including a very sizeable south asian population), i think this would be negligible in any comparison.

Last edited by uziq (2022-01-11 06:24:02)

Larssen
Member
+90|1186
Omicron is just starting in latin america. Brazil entering a new phase of infections rapidly increasing, mid summer.

It has partly to do with low average age in the population but also with the fact that the cultures in warmer climates especially are very outdoors. No seasonality and continuous warm weather seems to work quite well against covid.
uziq
Member
+461|2751
indeed, if/when it segues to endemic status it will surely have cyclical resurgences in places that are cold and damp, not so much because of the putative benefits of sunlight/UV radiation but simply because people are crowded indoors and socialise in enclosed spaces.

i really don’t expect omicron to create mass death, even in poorly prepared countries with fragile health infrastructure. deaths will be concentrated overwhelmingly in the unvaccinated. a pretty wide range of countries have been weathering omicron waves now for the last 6 weeks and we simply haven’t seen the burning mounds of plague dead like we did in delta/previous.
SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+559|3018
The deaths are ramping up in the U.S. 2 week average in the U.S. is +36% for deaths. Hospitalizations are at an all time high. Hospitalizations 2 week average is +83%.

The case numbers aren't breaking yet.
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
uziq
Member
+461|2751
the US surge is delta+omicron, though. key difference.
SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+559|3018
There's no reason kids shouldn't be in school right now.
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,776|5404|eXtreme to the maX

uziq wrote:

i have said all along that vaccinations are utterly key, but not that they're the only tool at our disposal. we will soon have antivirals and other therapeutics available for everyday use -- big benefit to dealing with the effects, mild or otherwise, of omicron/omicron+.

i have also said all along that testing and contact tracing for travel, major public events, etc, is surely prudent and wise. so long as they can be supplied cheaply/freely and in a form that is easily accessible, those measures seem eminently advisable (and, importantly, practicable) for the next few years. ditto requiring people to be vaccinated to enter certain venues, or to engage in certain group activities; i have no problem, in fact, with airlines enforcing vaccine mandates for long-distance travel.

importantly, though, society should be able to re-open whilst also retaining the above suite of measures. advocating for 'indefinite' lockdown or 'indefinite' closed anything is stupid and unnecessary, at this point. the rates of serious illness and death have been completely decoupled from new cases and, furthermore and importantly, more or less flatlined since we achieved widespread vaccination (+recent boosters). this pandemic is simply not the same beast anymore. the chances of a new wave breaking out in a highly vaccinated population and posing a serious threat of widespread death, as we saw frequently in year 1, is simply not going to happen anymore. therefore having entire cities in clampdowns with people not allowed to leave their residences is fucking insane. it doesn't achieve any measurable result in the medium- or long-term (i.e. the virus resurges anyway in quick order) and it certainly isn't necessary to stem the tide of deaths (vaccines do that, durh).
So your plan is:

Do nothing
Carry on partying and travelling
Expect the smelly STEM nerds you despise to deliver a solution which requires no effort on your part

You're as dumb and venal as Boris Johnson.

How will vaccines solve the problem when they aren't very effective, aren't very effective for long and global takeup is going to be below the threshold for usefulness?

No-one has advocated indefinite lockdowns. Quarantine + monitoring + targeted lockdowns does the trick even without vaccines.
Or you can do nothing and have long lockdowns like the UK.
Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!
uziq
Member
+461|2751
when have i been partying and 'travelling'? i relocated once in 3 years, after self-isolating with zero social contact, not even with my then-gf, for the first 18 months. you meanwhile were sat at home with your family like a newt, so, erm, no change at all to your usual lifestyle, really.

living in korea for the last year i've had MORE restrictions on social life, not less. you absolute fucking idiot. korea has had a closing-time curfew for 90% of my time here, only relaxing it for all of about 4 weeks in the late autumn.

korea has had maximum groups sizes (2/4/6, with a group of 2 people being the maximum for the bulk of the entire summer).

korea has mandatory mask wearing outdoors - even during maximum humidity 36 degree days, even alone when walking through the city at night.

korea has had mandatory testing, mandatory self-isolation if you're in the same area as a reported case (been caught twice this way = 25 days, in total, combined of self-isolation at home; that's almost a month of my last 12, plus the 2 weeks i took in quarantine when i arrived here).

the UK has had NO restrictions during most of last year. as soon as the vaccine programme kicked off in earnest - and you'll remember the UK was basically one of the first 2/3 nations globally, leading the pack - all the social restrictions went out the window. clubs open. bars open. masks, by god! no contact tracing, no sign-in codes, no mandatory testing, very few curfews, if any ... i could go on. i practically uprooted myself and moved to a country with a much more severe, much more invasive approach to covid, with many, many more rules and a much higher pressure to conform to them. 'partying and travelling'. unbelievable. the giant raves and partying have been happening in the UNITED KINGDOM and EUROPE.

Or you can do nothing and have long lockdowns like the UK.
WHEN is the last time the UK had a long lockdown? LMAO. certainly not since i moved to korea. long lockdowns have precisely been off the table since last spring, when vaccines were understood to have changed the entire calculus. i moved to korea last spring!

please tell me more about my 'venality'. once again, dilbert, i am speaking on behalf of YOUR OWN POPULATION, the MAJORITY OF WHOM supported plans to 'reopen and live with covid'. you're speaking for the people of melbourne and sydney, really, sat there in your state of 1.6 million people, watching the cows graze? shut up and fuck off.

'the situation just works in australia, if you used our model you wouldn't need long lockdowns like the UK'.
melbourne: LONGEST CONTINUOUS LOCKDOWN IN THE WORLD, DURING THE WHOLE PANDEMIC.



How will vaccines solve the problem when they aren't very effective, aren't very effective for long and global takeup is going to be below the threshold for usefulness?
jesus christ. the vaccines aren't effective for very long because they're 2.5 YEARS OUT OF DATE. they were developed based on the original ancestor strain of covid, which is a very different-shaped microorganism to the one we find today. pfizer and moderna are already testing a vaccine that has been updated for omicron/+. it's like saying 'how will we ever cope with flu again? i just took the 2019 flu vaccine and it's only giving me 40% protection!'

the first-generation of vaccines were 90%+ EFFECTIVE even up to and including delta. the continued generations are going to tighten our grip on this pandemic. get a fucking grip on yourself. you are an hysterical idiot.

Expect the smelly STEM nerds you despise
i work with STEM nerds all day long. i respect them. i have been here talking about the immense achievements and reassurances of science. what are you doing, +3 years into the pandemic? still talking about spooky 'unforeseen consequences' of vaccination, sounding every bit like a cracked fucking antivaxxer skeptic, recycling their rhetoric. it's amazing - you position yourself as a tribune of the sciences but everything you post here is pseudo-scientific, conspiracy nut nonsense. you're mentally ill. you should take mushrooms.

Last edited by uziq (2022-01-12 02:15:59)

Cybargs
Moderated
+2,275|6015
pfizer out with the omnicron specific vacc soon. blessed.
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uziq
Member
+461|2751
no, no, you don't understand. because the vaccines lose their effectivity, 2 years later, we should never bother with vaccines.

plus, wE dN't knOw the LonG-tErM conSeQeuenceZ. 5G might give us cancer
Cybargs
Moderated
+2,275|6015
mfw flu vaccines lose effiacy faster than rona vaccine. mein gott
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Larssen
Member
+90|1186
Have there been studies on the effects of frequency of vaccination? Does inserting the same vector multiple times decrease immune response?
Cybargs
Moderated
+2,275|6015

Larssen wrote:

Have there been studies on the effects of frequency of vaccination? Does inserting the same vector multiple times decrease immune response?
opposite so far, hence the boosters and taking a "second shot." but there's a question of permanent necessity, like youre supposed to take the flu shot every year and as its efficacy drops a lot over time.

in general with vaccinations it definitely wanes, hence why people who become doctors/nurses/cops/military have to take new vaccines. some countries even require you to take a vaccine recently (yellow fever etc) prior to visit.

i honestly don't see whats the big fuss about an annual or regular vaccination protocol. kids do it all the time... measles was wiped out till its back, but kids take the measles vacc 2 times before theyre 1 years old and another one before theyre 2 afaik. even though its an almost non existent disease, you still take the vacc to ya know, wipe it out. you don't see polio or smallpox anywhere for good reason.
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uziq
Member
+461|2751

Larssen wrote:

Have there been studies on the effects of frequency of vaccination? Does inserting the same vector multiple times decrease immune response?
an mRNA vaccine does not insert a 'vector' into your body. it’s literally an instruction telling your body to produce more of an antibody. which is why they’re so effective.

any side-effects people report are the effects of the immune system stepping up antibody production, which means a generalised inflammatory response. it’s not your body fighting off a ‘vector’ of infection.

as cyborgs pointed out, there are just as many diseases which have frequent ‘booster’ treatments or which require multi-part injections. the number of ‘one shot - lifetime immunity’ vaccines is actually not that large. afaik we've only eradicated 2-3 major diseases in the modern era with a 'silver bullet'-type vaccine (e.g. smallpox).

the general wisdom with any sort of vaccination is that triggering that immune system/antibody response gifts you a period of lasting protection. whether it's 6 months or 5 years or a lifetime. regularly being vaccinated doesn't 'weaken' you to the disease - that's the obverse of the entire principle of the thing. the vaccine itself might have diminishing returns, sure, if your antibody levels are already high. and there might be unwanted side-effects and drawbacks of having your immune system constantly on high-alert mode, producing said antibodies (fatigue, fevers, headaches, etc.)

Last edited by uziq (2022-01-12 05:04:13)

Larssen
Member
+90|1186
Well I reckon this is the first time frequency is so high. Chances are some people are receiving 4 to 5 shots of some covid vaccines in the span of about a year. It's a bit different from a once yearly flu shot or dtp, hepatitis, bmr, yellow fever vaccinations that usually need only one shot for a duration of 5-10 years. Granted those were also vector based, most are now mrna which as you say works differently.

Unarguably it's still preferable to just take the shot no matter, but I wonder if these stimuli remain as effective after such frequent application.

Last edited by Larssen (2022-01-12 05:05:40)

uziq
Member
+461|2751

Cybargs wrote:

mfw flu vaccines lose effiacy faster than rona vaccine. mein gott
it's a disaster!!!!! old people should be shielded and locked down forever.
uziq
Member
+461|2751

Larssen wrote:

Well I reckon this is the first time frequency is so high. Chances are some people are receiving 4 to 5 shots of some covid vaccines in the span of about a year. It's a bit different from a once yearly flu shot or dtp, hepatitis, bmr, yellow fever vaccinations that usually need only one shot for a duration of 5-10 years.

Unarguably it's still preferable to just take the shot no matter, but I wonder if these stimuli remain as effective after such frequent application.
none of those shots have ever come in the form of an mRNA vaccine. do some basic reading into what mRNA technology is, please.
Larssen
Member
+90|1186
Which is what I added in my edit. Point was not to sift through studies/articles manually to answer this specific question.

Granted since the technology has only just entered the market I reckon there's still much to learn about application and durability of effectiveness etc.
uziq
Member
+461|2751
yes and 5G could give us cancer, too. i'm sure absolutely nobody researched this before approving the vaccines.

i've posted this before.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/4 … -covid-jab
Israeli study shows five-fold antibody rise with fourth COVID jab
Israeli study finds fourth COVID-19 vaccine dose boosts antibodies five-fold, PM says, citing preliminary findings

the problem isn't the vaccine tech, it's that the antibody instructions they're coded with are now 2 years out of date, essentially addressing a protein structure from 2019.

Last edited by uziq (2022-01-12 05:27:52)

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