Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,810|6103|eXtreme to the maX

Cybargs wrote:

and a defacto shut down is pretty much occuring due to the quick spread of omnicron. its like aus, no lockdown but lots of business' closed due to staffing issues due to infection.
Except the clever part is the govt doesn't have to provide bail-outs.

Neat no?
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uziq
Member
+492|3449
it’s canny politics, to be sure (e.g. germany has left half their nightlife sector in the lurch, in berlin, without providing adequate financial support or any assurance for their planning) … but the question also has to be asked, more so in other, more hard hit countries than australia: for how long can we continue to furlough, bail out and insure 40-50% of the economy at once?

the tax bill and bailout consequences from the last 3 years are already going to gigafuck society. the corporate bail outs and stimulus packages have already exacerbated the sky-high levels of inequality in society. inflation is at its highest in 10/15 years in many western economies already.

nobody is talking about the macroeconomics. as much as i love socialism, the current marketised political economies we live in are setting us up for disaster. i am fully waiting now for the conservatives to turn around and say we need another 5-10 years of austerity and cuts to ‘pay it back’ and ‘balance the books’.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,810|6103|eXtreme to the maX
Except here it was a small fraction of the economy - foreign tourists - more than balanced out by Australians not travelling abroad, and foreign university students.
Pretty well everything else was ticking along as normal - mining, farming, leisure, hospitality etc.

Britain really is looking like a failed state, taxes up, benefits down, energy costs up 50-100%, bunch of partying vegetables in charge.
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uziq
Member
+492|3449
please stop making out that australia is the norm. it isn’t.

the tax bill from furloughs are huge right across the board.

other nations which aren’t at all similar to the UK’s model, like korea for instance, can’t countenance the economic costs. it’s a nation of small business owners, in the main, with the petit-bourgeois all owning restaurants, coffee shops, small enterprises, etc. the korean govt has absolutely no means or werewithal to prop up the economy with handouts or financial support. it has been minimal throughout. if/when omicron breaks in a big way, the economic stressors will be immense. an absolutely catastrophic number of small businesses have failed here in the last 2-3 years of restrictions as it is: again for the same reason above, never an officially announced lockdown and so a slow bleeding out.
Cybargs
Moderated
+2,285|6713

Dilbert_X wrote:

Cybargs wrote:

and a defacto shut down is pretty much occuring due to the quick spread of omnicron. its like aus, no lockdown but lots of business' closed due to staffing issues due to infection.
Except the clever part is the govt doesn't have to provide bail-outs.

Neat no?
they know they can't give gerry harvey any more money, now time to fuck over small businesses!
https://cache.www.gametracker.com/server_info/203.46.105.23:21300/b_350_20_692108_381007_FFFFFF_000000.png
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,810|6103|eXtreme to the maX

uziq wrote:

please stop making out that australia is the norm. it isn’t.

the tax bill from furloughs are huge right across the board.

other nations which aren’t at all similar to the UK’s model, like korea for instance, can’t countenance the economic costs. it’s a nation of small business owners, in the main, with the petit-bourgeois all owning restaurants, coffee shops, small enterprises, etc. the korean govt has absolutely no means or werewithal to prop up the economy with handouts or financial support. it has been minimal throughout. if/when omicron breaks in a big way, the economic stressors will be immense. an absolutely catastrophic number of small businesses have failed here in the last 2-3 years of restrictions as it is: again for the same reason above, never an officially announced lockdown and so a slow bleeding out.
Still no reason for Australia to blindly follow Europe.

Hey just think, if Covid had been kept in China there'd have been no need for any of this.
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uziq
Member
+492|3449
there's no reason for any nation to 'blindly' follow any other. i've been the one repeating, time and time again, in this thread that comparing nations in an absolute manner (or comparing wildly different diseases, for that matter, dilbert) is totally senseless because of the huge range of epidemiological variables at play. YOU have been the one advocating for GLOBAL travel bans and for the entire world to 'follow' fucking the tiny state of SOUTH AUSTRALIA.

hey, just think, if you hadn't been repeating the same inane childish wish-fulfillment line for the last 2.5 years, you could have saved yourself 1,000 posts and taken a few nice long walks.

there has been no better indication of your lack of any constructive thinking on the topic of this pandemic than your continual recourse to 'china must pay for this', 'if only fauci wasn't corrupt', 'this is a bioweapon', etc, etc, nonsense. none of that pertains at all to the situation we are dealing with or practicable courses of action. aren't you meant to be an engineer whose entire intelligence is tooled towards finding solutions to problems?

please tell me how any human government on earth was meant to contain a highly infectious, novel pathogen with a 10-day asymptomatic latency period. please, enlighten us, oh wise 'why isn't my spring delivered to me from the other side of the world in 2 days' dilbert.

Last edited by uziq (2022-01-09 03:13:30)

Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,810|6103|eXtreme to the maX
We had all the experience of SARS-1, the leadership of most countries failed and continue to fail.
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unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+2,053|6769|PNW

Pick a paper about the differences and similarities between COVID-19 and SARS. From CDC, "According to the World Health Organization (WHO), a total of 8,098 people worldwide became sick with SARS during the 2003 outbreak. Of these, 774 died." Not much of a rehearsal, for "experience." If anything, I think people were overconfident due to it.
uziq
Member
+492|3449

Dilbert_X wrote:

We had all the experience of SARS-1, the leadership of most countries failed and continue to fail.
i have literally told you about 3 times that SARS-1 has a very different infection profile to SARS-2. same family of viruses, yes, but tabbies and lions are part of the same family of felines, too. don't confuse them.

SARS-1's infection window coincides with its onset of symptoms. therefore you can quickly isolate and quarantine anyone who has the disease. indeed, east asian cultures effectively self-isolate whenever they exhibit symptoms of cold-like illnesses, anyway. we are talking a culture of people who routinely elect to wear masks in public for common colds, for e.g., and have been doing so for decades.

SARS-CoV-2 is (or was, if we specifically consider the ancestor strain) invisible for 10-15 days, or thereabouts. the peak of its infectivity comes during this asymptomatic period.

now tell me how any health body, state authority, or national government could have prevented a novel pathogen from leaving its borders in the first month or so. please, enlighten us. there was no way to notice, isolate and shut down 'patient zero' with this thing. the first person to get infected was carrying it around a high-population, high-density city for 2 weeks. that's even with all the best will in the world, the most open sharing of data, the spirit of greatest cooperation, etc, from the CCP.

yes, many countries with a recent skirmish with SARS-1 were able to effectively contain the spread of SARS-2 better. but that didn't stop it from leaping their borders, invisibly and undetected, in the first place. they were fortunate in that they had huge apparatuses of contact tracing, quarantine systems, medical resources, etc, recently established for just such a purpose. 90% of the world didn't have that; they had reports and warnings, pandemic preparedness documentation, sure, but no concrete and existing infrastructure; but that's not the same thing. we didn't "all" have the experience of SARS-1 outbreaks at all. what in the fuck are you talking about?

your vagueness with the history of this pandemic is pretty astonishing.

the leadership of most countries failed and continue to fail.
well, quite, but i would argue that this thing was a clear indicator that the world system is incredibly complex and our illusion of species-level coordination and control is (for now) just that: an illusion. most states were slow to respond even when the evidence was pressing; there's just so much inertia built into the everyday run-of-the-mill life of society. most nations which had oodles of reports prepared for a pandemic/terrorist attack/natural disaster/etc scenario are mostly exercising a form of wishful thinking or anxiety avoidance by commissioning such things. the simple truth is that in the face of a global-scale emergency, or at the moment of need, a lot of leaders delay or fadge it.

this is human society tbh. these things are a once-in-a-century event, once in every 3-5 generations in any case, and most of the time the sense of emergency and the urgency to act - along with the tangible, painful memories of the human costs - gets lost along the way. even with all the warnings in the world from scientific advisors prior to the pandemic, was it on any western government's list of priorities to fund such systems and keep them permanently on standby? i think not.

Last edited by uziq (2022-01-09 05:48:58)

SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+635|3717
That "off the chart" is comical
https://i.imgur.com/i0oELIE.png
The extremely transmissible Omicron variant is spreading quickly across the United States, making up a vast majority of U.S. cases after becoming dominant in the week before Christmas.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have said that it is still too soon to predict the full impact Omicron could have on deaths and illness across the country. But data in some of the earliest-hit cities is beginning to show what the future could hold.

In New York City, Boston and Chicago — cities with some of the country’s earliest Omicron surges — deaths have followed cases at a slightly reduced scale than in previous peaks. But because of the extraordinarily high case count, even a proportionally lower death toll from the current case curve in the United States could be devastating.

In early-hit cities, hospitals are seeing more patients testing positive for Covid-19 than at any time last year. Because of the sheer infectiousness of the Omicron variant, many who arrive at the hospital for other ailments test positive for the coronavirus. Some doctors have also said that patients who do have Covid as a primary diagnosis are faring better than during previous waves.

Even so, the number of Covid-19 patients who need intensive care or mechanical ventilation is approaching levels not seen since last winter. And the sheer number of patients is overwhelming to hospitals, where staffing shortages are putting healthcare workers under immense strain.

Healthcare workers were already quitting their jobs in record numbers before the Omicron wave. Now, many more are out sick with the hugely transmissible variant. With fewer staff members available to care for them, even a smaller number of patients can overwhelm emergency departments and intensive care units.

Since vaccines became available, those who are vaccinated have been far less likely to be hospitalized with severe Covid-19 than those who are unvaccinated. Early data from New York City shows that the vaccination gap in hospitalizations became even wider during the first weeks of the city’s Omicron surge.

Vaccinated patients are more likely to experience milder disease, doctors have said, and a vast majority of Omicron patients who require intensive care are unvaccinated or have severely compromised immune systems.

Unvaccinated older people are particularly vulnerable to severe illness from Covid-19. About 12 percent of people in the United States ages 65 and older are not fully vaccinated, according to C.D.C. data. Many parts of the country where that rate is estimated to be highest are also places where surges fueled by the Omicron variant have not yet begun or are only just beginning. Those places include parts of the Midwest and the Mountain West and more rural areas across the country.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 … itals.html
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
uziq
Member
+492|3449
haha, they surely did that on purpose for effect.

i'm afraid america was always destined to be the 'worst case scenario' this winter, and was almost certain to fare worse than just about everywhere else. you've turned basic social distancing measures, vaccinations/boosters, and even general acknowledgment of the pandemic into a massively divisive issue. it seems like 30-40% of your population effectively have a death wish ... and they're going to get it.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,810|6103|eXtreme to the maX

uziq wrote:

Dilbert_X wrote:

We had all the experience of SARS-1, the leadership of most countries failed and continue to fail.
i have literally told you about 3 times that SARS-1 has a very different infection profile to SARS-2. same family of viruses, yes, but tabbies and lions are part of the same family of felines, too. don't confuse them.

SARS-1's infection window coincides with its onset of symptoms. therefore you can quickly isolate and quarantine anyone who has the disease. indeed, east asian cultures effectively self-isolate whenever they exhibit symptoms of cold-like illnesses, anyway. we are talking a culture of people who routinely elect to wear masks in public for common colds, for e.g., and have been doing so for decades.

SARS-CoV-2 is (or was, if we specifically consider the ancestor strain) invisible for 10-15 days, or thereabouts. the peak of its infectivity comes during this asymptomatic period.

now tell me how any health body, state authority, or national government could have prevented a novel pathogen from leaving its borders in the first month or so. please, enlighten us. there was no way to notice, isolate and shut down 'patient zero' with this thing. the first person to get infected was carrying it around a high-population, high-density city for 2 weeks. that's even with all the best will in the world, the most open sharing of data, the spirit of greatest cooperation, etc, from the CCP.

yes, many countries with a recent skirmish with SARS-1 were able to effectively contain the spread of SARS-2 better. but that didn't stop it from leaping their borders, invisibly and undetected, in the first place. they were fortunate in that they had huge apparatuses of contact tracing, quarantine systems, medical resources, etc, recently established for just such a purpose. 90% of the world didn't have that; they had reports and warnings, pandemic preparedness documentation, sure, but no concrete and existing infrastructure; but that's not the same thing. we didn't "all" have the experience of SARS-1 outbreaks at all. what in the fuck are you talking about?

your vagueness with the history of this pandemic is pretty astonishing.

the leadership of most countries failed and continue to fail.
well, quite, but i would argue that this thing was a clear indicator that the world system is incredibly complex and our illusion of species-level coordination and control is (for now) just that: an illusion. most states were slow to respond even when the evidence was pressing; there's just so much inertia built into the everyday run-of-the-mill life of society. most nations which had oodles of reports prepared for a pandemic/terrorist attack/natural disaster/etc scenario are mostly exercising a form of wishful thinking or anxiety avoidance by commissioning such things. the simple truth is that in the face of a global-scale emergency, or at the moment of need, a lot of leaders delay or fadge it.

this is human society tbh. these things are a once-in-a-century event, once in every 3-5 generations in any case, and most of the time the sense of emergency and the urgency to act - along with the tangible, painful memories of the human costs - gets lost along the way. even with all the warnings in the world from scientific advisors prior to the pandemic, was it on any western government's list of priorities to fund such systems and keep them permanently on standby? i think not.
Yes, no nation had a carefully written pandemic plan in place for decades.

Yes yes, even the greatest mega-brain in history could never have devised a plan for defeating a contagious pandemic, its a conundrum which will never be solved.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quarantine
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uziq
Member
+492|3449
er do you even read? having a pandemic plan and reports giving recommendations is not the same thing as being able to roll-out a nationwide system with a few days' or even weeks' notice. it takes a long time.

quarantines never worked for the medieval plagues you talk about. it depends entirely on the nature of the illness. quarantine decidedly does NOT work at eradicating highly infectious diseases. stemming the tide of death, yes; eradicating, NO.
SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+635|3717
I have to go back to work tomorrow. Going to bed with a zombie apocalypse movie. Going to go through the whole day just hoping "please let this be it".
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,810|6103|eXtreme to the maX

uziq wrote:

stemming the tide of death
Good enough for me.
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uziq
Member
+492|3449

Dilbert_X wrote:

uziq wrote:

stemming the tide of death
Good enough for me.
no it's not, you want borders to be permanently closed and travel restrictions to 'pre-emptively' curtail the spread of new variants. which doesn't fucking work.

explain to me how closing borders will help stem the tide of omicron? look at every country that tried to control its borders, as soon as the variant was announced. 'they didn't do it well enough', you insist, time and time again in response to every new example. lol. closing borders doesn't do shit. full city lockdowns ... maybe. look to china for how well that's going. 'stemming the tide', certainly, but at an enormous cost.

once again, deaths from omicron are basically nil. the UK had 97 deaths yesterday. way more than 2 weeks into our omicron 'major wave'.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,810|6103|eXtreme to the maX
~1% of the Chinese population is locked down, 99% are enjoying happy Chinese lives.

If quarantines don't work why has every civilisation in history used them?
They must all be stupid.
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uziq
Member
+492|3449
all of the quarantines you keep referencing, with zero historical knowledge, occurred in a period before people even had a GERM THEORY OF DISEASE.

please stop talking out of your ass. it is fucking tedious in the extreme.

covid-19 will never be eliminated by quarantines. it is impossible. it is globally pandemic. shut the fuck up about it already.

why don't you pray for the pandemic to end? every society in history has had some form of spiritual invocation, dilbert. how can they all be wrong?

Last edited by uziq (2022-01-09 23:09:59)

Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,810|6103|eXtreme to the maX

uziq wrote:

quarantines never worked for the medieval plagues you talk about. it depends entirely on the nature of the illness. quarantine decidedly does NOT work at eradicating highly infectious diseases. stemming the tide of death, yes; eradicating, NO.
So quarantine is effective at 'stemming the tide of death' yet you're still against it.
Why don't you care about people dying, why is travel more important?
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Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,810|6103|eXtreme to the maX
Canada party plane influencer 'idiots' fly home to face music

The 27 who have returned were tested for the virus, and "were checked with regards to whether they had obeyed and followed all of the health regulations they were supposed to follow throughout their trip".

They had to provide proof of vaccination against Covid-19, a negative PCR test, and a quarantine plan.

Mr Duclos said the Quebec police department was investigating the travellers.

Transport Canada is also investigating the group - they could issue fines of up to C$5,000 (£2,900) per offence.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-59917300
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unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+2,053|6769|PNW

Imagine minding your own business on a plane trip and potentially being included in the list of violators because your name is on the flight.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,810|6103|eXtreme to the maX
It was a charter flight for instagram morons going to Cancun - no-one on that flight was blameless.
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unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+2,053|6769|PNW

I mean in another situation.
Larssen
Member
+99|1885
Dilbert, the Chinese situation has some important considerations which you're not mentioning.

1. Hospital administrators and local governments are punished for covid outbreaks. This incentivises extremely harsh lockdowns and underreporting of cases.

2. The government has thrown its strategy in a political narrative of china vs the west, which means that giving up its zero covid strategy would be admitting it is 'wrong'. Obviously impossible for the CCP, so you'd have to ask yourself how this situation of total lockdowns against outbreaks will ever end in the face of Omicron, or if restrictions are progressively worsened.

3. The near total ban on international arrivals isn't just a pragmatic 'solution' to the pandemic. The CCP is both increasingly fascist and narrative-controlling. Foreign nationals and esp. journalists are unwanted influences & prying eyes to them. It's likely the borders will remain shut to keep the rest of the world out. Meanwhile they can 'do as they wish' with Xinjiang, HK etc.

4. I'd like to re-emphasise point 1. China's covid reporting is obviously very suspicious. A country of 1,3 billion without a single outbreak vs a disease that is fundamentally characterised by slow-onset of mostly mild symptoms & even asymptomatic transmission? How are they even getting proper testing infrastructure in rural and poorer china? We also know they obviously underreported the initial covid outbreak too. Who knows how many people have died under this normality-on-the-surface?

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