vaccination has ensured a return to normalcy though, has it not? only in the most extreme of circumstances, i.e. a winter crush with a new variant and the usual pressures on health systems due to seasonal illness (to say nothing of the huge backlogs currently experienced in most elective surgeries and treatments, etc), have we had to reimpose social controls. and even then, they are much, much milder than the previous waves of lockdowns, pre-vaccine.
the vaccines have worked to a magnificent degree. to make out that 'it hasn't worked' is laughable. we are in a
markedly better situation than we were before the advent of vaccines (and now antivirals, hospital steroid treatment, anticlonals, etc.) are you forgetting that, prior to a vaccine, the upper limit on serious illness and death was way, way in excess of any nation's ability to cope? hospitals and ICUs were at danger of flopping over with every single wave prior to vaccines. we are now on wave 4/5, depending on your location, and the calculus is nowhere near as severe.
This was already happening with Delta.
the data is still rather scant w/r/t omicron but Delta has undoubtedly been the most severe variant yet. to say 'already happening with Delta', with the logical inference that future waves will be just as bad, if not worse, is potentially misleading. there's nothing to say that every winter will be a repeat of a Delta-level severity covid wave. it could be easier; it could be worse: the awkward truth is that that is one of those known unknowns.
The elephant in the room is prioritisation of hospital care and whether or not covid patients should be put front of the que for urgent medical assistance, and if everyone should always be given medical assistance regardless of co-morbidities and vaccination status. The hospitals aren't going to make a choice, which is understandable.
hospitals have been making these choices throughout the entire pandemic, particularly at its early chokepoints. that's what medical triage is. i highly doubt any hospital can turn away patients because they refuse to get a vaccine, though; that is ultimately a political choice and one i indeed doubt any government will reckon with. (it's also a political choice to divert much more funding and resources towards winter chokepoints, and to bolster the supplies and staffing of our health systems in anticipation of much more demanding winters; political choices with possible winter solutions; we're in year 2.5 of the pandemic now and there's no reason that a rich western nation can't divert enough funds to create a nice ICU buffer each winter.)
if winters are going to be worse, it's not exactly hopeless. we aren't being caught unawares now in a sudden global emergency. can't germany prepare more ICU beds/wards or covid hospitals, even temporary or ad hoc facilities, during the winter, with all of its first-world wealth? these are not insuperable problems, spelling a future of perpetual doom.
Lots of vaccines in the UN distribution program are remaining in boxes already, and these aren't nearly enough.
once again, we don't need top-down schemes when multiple countries and their polities are willing to manufacture and distribute the vaccines themselves. but we don't want that, do we? you're complaining about the difficulties of a convoluted logistics process
which we are the ones insisting upon. a little bit circuitous, there. many tens of millions of people (at least) could get quite easy access to the AZ/J&J vaccines, at least, if we loosened the leash on them. but we are not.
Last edited by uziq (2021-12-22 10:00:21)
