BF2S Forums Pandemic thread

Last edited by uziq (2021-12-09 16:09:59)

Dilbert_X wrote:

^ None of which is relevant to the problem of distributing vaccines which require a cold chain in Africa.

The rationale for the travel ban is that the majority of cases are thought to be in Southern Africa. There hasn’t been much SGTF elsewhere, and it’s estimated that the variant originated some time between late September and October. Thanks to surveillance in South Africa, we have caught this very quickly. There are, however, cases in the UK and elsewhere without obvious connections to Southern Africa. Restricting travel will reduce the number of cases that start a new Omicron wave, but it won’t prevent it. It’s a delaying tactic, and whether it is justified depends on what we do with the borrowed time. As Tulio de Oliveira, one of the leading South African scientists working on Covid, pointed out, ‘border restrictions deter nations from alerting the world to future variants. They will also slow down urgent research because few planes carrying cargo – including lab supplies needed for sequencing – are now arriving in South Africa.’ I hope the restrictions will be short term; if not they will be short-sighted.

As I write, knowledge of the Omicron variant has been in the public domain for ten days. It has gone from being a furrow in the brow of a worried virologist to a global threat in a very short time. There are a lot of unanswered questions. What about severity: might it be ‘milder’? What about lateral flow tests: will they still detect it? What about the antivirals: will they still work? Where did it come from: human or animal? Most important: will the vaccines still work?

Let’s tackle that last one first. The vaccines will definitely still work, we just don’t know to what extent. If you haven’t yet had your third dose, get it as soon as you reasonably can. If you’ve not had your first dose, get it today. South African scientists have already posted a pre-print showing that Omicron appears more likely to infect previously infected people – the first empirical confirmation that this variant will at least partly escape immunity. It’s very early days to assess the extent to which it escapes, but it would be a major surprise if it wasn’t substantially less well neutralised by antibodies generated by the vaccines. Researchers (including the team I work with at the Crick Institute) are rushing to quantify this. The first studies may report in a matter of days, and we will begin to get an idea of just how bad it could be.

Last edited by uziq (2021-12-11 01:50:35)

Dilbert_X wrote:

Right so we need to allow unconstrained global travel because researchers need a crate of material.

I'm fine with delaying tactics, its about all we have. If travel everywhere is constrained no-one is victimised.

I mean, why wear masks? Its just a delaying tactic which slows down transmission, we want to speed up transmission so we get to a harmless variant quicker right?