uziq
Member
+492|3449
i think once in every lustrum we should decide as a civilization on a highly infectious disease to wipe out using highly, highly successful medieval measures. each generation should get their own personal 'war on disease', with all the edifying and stiff-upper-lip-forming stuff about economic wipeout, depression, unemployment and labour crisis, etc., that comes with it. it's formative!

can't believe nobody had this idea before. if everyone just stayed inside, and the whole world shutdown, for 3 or 6 months, we could wipe out literally anything we want. just let the disease burn itself out and reduce transmission to zero!

the gen-z'ers can tackle flu or the common cold. i never liked them and frankly they've been having too much fun on tiktok during this pandemic. it's time for them to know true sacrifice, and to stay at home with their parents for 2.5 years posting tripe on internet forums.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
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uziq wrote:

are you reading what i'm saying?
Are you reading what I'm saying? Covid really has been driven global by people travelling, not car exports.
i love how dilbert flip-flops from 'you have an unhealthy obsession with partying and travel to go gawp at things' to 'that's not what i mean!' as soon as i introduce the rather more complex realities of a globalized world.
You didn't listen to what I said.
i think once in every lustrum we should decide as a civilization on a highly infectious disease to wipe out
Fauci wanted to wipe us out.

Two studies — one published in Nature Reviews Microbiology in September and the other currently under review — show one of four flu viruses that infect humans each year hasn't been detected anywhere in the world since April 2020.

So does that mean it's gone for good? It's still too early to say.

There is a chance this particular virus — the Yamagata virus — might be lurking in a pocket of the world somewhere, according to Ian Barr, deputy director of the World Health Organization's Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza at the Doherty Institute, and co-author of one of the studies.

"It may re-emerge, but we haven't had a single detection of that virus in 18 months.

"That's unusual, so it could be gone. We hope it's gone."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/202 … /100546836

Amazing how medieval measures really can eradicate diseases.
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uziq
Member
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covid was seeded in europe by chinese WORKERS. 'people travelling, not car exports'. how about, erm, textile workers?

Tens of thousands of Chinese migrants work in the Italian textile industry, producing fashion items, leather bags and shoes with the brand “Made in Italy”. They worked in conditions where they were cramped closely together, which would facilitate the spread [8-10]. Reuters and the reporter D. T. Max wrote about this phenomenon back in 2014 and 2018, respectively [9,10].
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7125421/

i don't know how you define that as 'people travelling'. (italy was in fact one of the first european countries to close its border to china, derp). people have to go around the world to make the world system work, stupid. people are involved in global supply-chains, either via their labour directly or their services. people have to interact across borders for the world to function in its current state.

my point being, that the economic and human cost of the last 2 years of lockdowns has been astronomical. it hasn't wiped out flu and it hasn't wiped out covid. one in four flu strains has lost prevalence. wow what a result. we should keep this up for another 8 years, that'll lick it! a totally proportionate and commonsensical fix to a disease for which we have highly effective vaccines!

Amazing how medieval measures really can eradicate diseases.
might i mention, in the same time period, the any number of other flu-like viruses which have arisen, quite naturally? if one flu strain 'disappears', it's likely that in the next few years, another more infectious/more aggressive strain or a similar virus will fill its ecological niche. the yamagata strain, which you refer to, as per the Nature article, is described as 'having slowed down evolutionarily in recent years, with very slow mutations'. so ... what about the majority of flu-type illnesses that mutate fast? LOL.

The stark reduction in global prevalence of B/Yamagata viruses compared with the other lineages may indicate an inherent vulnerability of this lineage. Indeed, B/Yamagata viruses have a lower effective reproductive number than B/Victoria viruses, and B/Yamagata epidemics have a slower initial growth phase with shorter transmission chains than B/Victoria epidemics5. This may make B/Yamagata more vulnerable to breakdowns in onward transmission, especially in the context of social distancing and movement restrictions. Furthermore, although multiple B/Yamagata clades can co-circulate for extended periods, previously long-lived clades went extinct6,7. Although the precise factors that drive B/Yamagata clades into extinction are unknown, the frequency of such extinctions suggests an intrinsic volatility in global B/Yamagata circulation. Lastly, as B/Victoria prevalence has been increasing since 2019, B/Yamagata may have already been at a low prevalence cycle at the beginning of the pandemic.
so, in conclusion: it was the weakest clade in the current mix even before the pandemic, was on the way out as part of a long-term naturally recurring cycle, and there was even evidence that other strains were increasing to make up for it. amazing. you should read the actual journal articles you cite here. i recommend it – i do it for a job.

see, this is the difference between you and i: you scrape sensational headlines from the BBC/ABC, and god knows what level of opportunist tabloid tripe, and i read scientific papers with actual results and conclusions. journalists need their pithy headlines and 250-word ledes, and you seemingly need your dummy ammo for your dumbie arguments.

we devised and exported this global capitalist system. we imbricated our national economies with other nations and other continents. we induced the foreign migrant labour to come to our countries and work, for low wages, in our factories and on our farms. those are the vectors of disease. ports, factories, indigent labourer accommodation, high-density housing and low-income, immigrant rich neighbourhoods.

http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20210827000754
South Korea is grappling with a growing number of coronavirus cases among migrant workers, many of whom are living and working in conditions highly vulnerable to cluster infections.

you making out that the disease is spread by 'leisure', 'selfishness', 'people gawping at things' and the relative luxury of 'the tourism industry' is fucking nonsense. to seriously stop international transmission of a highly infectious respiratory ilness, involves putting significant brakes on the entire global economic system. AS I KEEP SAYING.

Last edited by uziq (2021-10-26 22:00:02)

uziq
Member
+492|3449
wow, even during a year of drastically reduced human activity and massive lockdowns, there's been new flu-strains with pandemic potential.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/spotlights/2020 … ariant.htm
CDC Reports Fifth U.S. Human Infection with a Variant Flu Virus for 2021

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53218704
Flu virus with 'pandemic potential' found in China

but let's not worry: we can globally lockdown every time a new one crops up! it's a perfect fix! the WISDOM of the medieval era! we just need all future flu strains to be as slowly mutating and evolutionarily flawed as the yamagata strain! JOB DONE.

and here's the real clincher for your argument: a partial or incomplete lockdown, which doesn't fully eradicate all known examples of the disease which we are habitually used to, actually potentially makes us weaker and more vulnerable! so flu numbers are way down in a small number of rich nations for 2019-2020, on account of reduced human-to-human transmission, but in fact we are now far more susceptible to the strains that still exist, or any incipient new strains. what was once a yearly two-day bout can now became significantly dangerous again. great strategy dilbert. those medieval doctors really knew what they were talking about, considering they had zero knowledge of the immune system and antibodies! might i recommend a bouquet garni of herbs for your nose?

Last edited by uziq (2021-10-26 22:08:40)

Dilbert_X
The X stands for
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Well we can just rely on vaccines to keep us safe, nothing to worry about.
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uziq
Member
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you're being sarcastic but it's literally the realistic, pragmatic solution that everyone else resolved upon 6 months ago.

australia, NZ and china, the outliers in 'zero covid' tolerance, have now come to this view also. after the longest lockdowns in the world and the most punitive, totalitarian living conditions of any state on earth (in the case of the PRC).

yes, vaccines are the exit strategy. playing whack-a-mole with highly infectious, highly mutable respiratory illnesses doesn't work in a globalized system where everyone is breathing on their near neighbours, figuratively speaking if not literally. we live in close propinquity to groups of people even on the other side of the world, connected by international business and trade. not just exports of material things but the emigrations of human labour. i have made this point repeatedly. to extirpate covid, or flu or any other established disease, via your 'medieval' method, would involve global cooperation and global economic self-harm on a grand scale.

there's plenty of lessons to be learned about the covid-19 pandemic. huge mistakes were made in the opening phases. but, in the wide-view, it was the first serious pandemic of the truly globalized age. a person can hop on a plane, for work or for pleasure, and be around the globe in 24 hours now. that's not nothing. i think any realistic assessment of our ability to 'contain' a disease like covid-19 has to reckon, quite seriously, with the idea that this disease is completely sympomatic of our modern age and current system. it's not a freak accident or malicious plot: it shows the very obvious weaknesses and faultlines in the system we all rely upon. and, which may i add, you and me as westerners at the top of the pyramid benefit, and have benefitted, from to a disproportionate degree.

covid-19 isn't even the worst that nature potentially has in store for us. it's not that lethal, all said and told (although many times more dangerous than flu). and the scientific story, here, of global collaboration and the lightning-fast development of highly effective vaccines, including unprecedented new vaccine tech, is not nothing either. that's something to celebrate, though you continually want to undermine it. it could be a valuable experience for the next 'big one', a highly transmissible AND highly lethal disease like the bubonic plague. or maybe not. maybe the world system we have devised, with its just-in-time supplies and reliance on migrant populations, is simply too fragile and precarious.

you are a lot like jay in that you lack the ability to 'follow the money', analytically speaking, on complex topics. you never want to think through the implications of your views or proferred solutions. you want simple answers to very complex questions, which is just a sign of great intellectual (and emotional) immaturity. you think you're occam's razor, but really you're dildorp's butter knife. if your proposal is seriously to de-globalize the world, you might want to think through the ramifications on your own lifestyle and all the rest you take for granted now. to say nothing of the serious political and ecological challenges it might pose if we return to an era of separated (thus competing) civilizations.

Last edited by uziq (2021-10-26 22:26:20)

Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,810|6103|eXtreme to the maX
Well not really

SARS
MERS
Swine Flu
Ebola - Lucky that didn't go global
Zika

Your problem is you're selfish and think what you want is what you should get.

I've never suggested deglobalising the world, just putting a crimp on wasteful and unnecessary personal travel - which lets face it is most of it.

Lets tax aviation fuel and shipping fuel at the same rate as car fuel and that would do a lot to cut CO2 and dramatically reduce the risk of future pandemics.
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unnamednewbie13
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What all falls under the categories of "unnecessary" or "unsafe" travel for you?
uziq
Member
+492|3449
SARS/MERS were not as transmissible as covid. ditto swine flu.

no 'luck' involved in ebola not going global: it requires close contact and exchange of bodily fluids. it kills its infected host very quickly. much easier to control, even in the hinterlands of africa with relatively little state control or global intervention.

you're comparing zika and tropical illnesses to a respiratory coronavirus like covid? lol. i don't even know what to say to you. zika is spread by mosquitoes. you know, cold-blooded animals. maybe there is an increasing global risk with global warming, but not a lot of chance of morgues full of dead russians from zika any time soon.

it's almost as if you don't understand anything about epidemiology. shall we do some more case studies on leprosy? how about rabies? you haven't mentioned that one yet. your comparisons excepting SARS/MERS/swine flu are inane and, frankly, bizarre.

I've never suggested deglobalising the world, just putting a crimp on wasteful and unnecessary personal travel - which lets face it is most of it.
it's like you literally don't read anything. bubonic plague was spread around medieval europe by trade, via ports. covid has mostly followed the migrations of workers/labour and trade goods. jesus christ. it's not package holidaymakers who seeded this thing globally. and even if it was, the problem still remains that workers/goods STILL must travel. and, as we have seen, time and time again, a small number of accidental cases through surface contacts or 'essential' workers still creates UNMANAGEABLE clusters.

Last edited by uziq (2021-10-27 00:07:42)

Dilbert_X
The X stands for
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Goods need to travel, workers barely with the unemployment rate in most countries.
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Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,810|6103|eXtreme to the maX

unnamednewbie13 wrote:

What all falls under the categories of "unnecessary" or "unsafe" travel for you?
Tourism/Holidays
Most management meetings which can be done remotely for at least the last 20 years

Whatever, lets jack the fuel tax up to 400% and see what happens.
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uziq
Member
+492|3449

Dilbert_X wrote:

Goods need to travel, workers barely with the unemployment rate in most countries.
LMAO okay. laughably naive about how most first-world and western economies work.

i'm sure we can find perfect employment for all natives in a 5-day window after suddenly pulling up the drawbridge in a pandemic scenario.

and who transports the goods, works at the docksides, staffs the shops, etc? wowsers. no interaction between people there, i'm sure.

again, you reason like a child.

'we can lockdown the world indefinitely every time there's a pandemic AND solve unemployment! just kick out the naughty migrants who want to cross borders! the wage rates and living costs will work themselves out. why weren't farmers and garment factory owners paying a living wage anyway? well, let's figure that out later after we effortlessly exterminate this highly contagious disease. good news, unemployed locals! we've found you a job! bad news, it pays so poorly that you have to live in chicken coops with 12 other people'.

Last edited by uziq (2021-10-27 01:50:25)

unnamednewbie13
Moderator
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Dilbert_X wrote:

unnamednewbie13 wrote:

What all falls under the categories of "unnecessary" or "unsafe" travel for you?
Tourism/Holidays
Most management meetings which can be done remotely for at least the last 20 years

Whatever, lets jack the fuel tax up to 400% and see what happens.
If someone is vaccinated (and tested/quarantined for a period if required), I don't see a reason why they should be stranded in their country. Even if they're traveling on holiday. I'd think a carefully handled traveler can scarcely do more damage than people sneaking in and out of a country, or even transmission patterns among that country's own people.

What hope does Eurafroasia or the Americas have if even remote New Zealand can't stamp it out 100%.

Punitive fuel taxes like that seems like just another way to extend inequality.
uziq
Member
+492|3449
or even transmission patterns among that country's own people.
fucking bingo. no country can domestically lockdown, track+trace and eliminate even their own community caseloads. NEW ZEALAND HAS LITERALLY JUST FAILED AT THIS WITH A SINGLE, ONE, (1) INDIVIDUAL STARTING CASE of the delta variant. countries with impeccable pandemic-response protocols and track+trace systems which have been the envy of the world, namely korea and taiwan, have totally given up on eradicating their own daily caseloads. it is simply impossible in any country with even 500–1000 cases.

the idea of a sterilized, hermetically sealed nation that has 'zero covid' and just needs to police its borders and wipe-down its imports using bleach is a fucking NONSENSE. it's pie-in-the-sky, childish wish fulfilment, 'if only...' stuff.

bad news for you dilbert: the chancellor of the exchequer just announced the new budget for the UK. he cut duties on air travel. wooops.

Last edited by uziq (2021-10-27 08:23:54)

Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,810|6103|eXtreme to the maX

uziq wrote:

bad news for you dilbert: the chancellor of the exchequer just announced the new budget for the UK. he cut duties on air travel. wooops.
Yeah well done, never mind the pandemic or global warming, lets continue to subsidise the stupidest means of travel.

Why on earth does Britain need internal air travel?

Morons

Even their flight was bad! Manchester United defend their decision to use a plane for a 10-MINUTE trip to Leicester clash in a bid to beat the traffic... despite journey being just 100 miles
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/footb … ester.html
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uziq
Member
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travelling. yuck!

https://imgur.com/a/sXTNCdK
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,810|6103|eXtreme to the maX
Glad to see you're following the lager-lout lifestyle, but I mean obviously burning literally a ton of kerosene to travel half way around the world and ... drink beer on a beach - truly mind-expanding stuff and totally worth the cost.

I have a beach 20 mins from home.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/45/Glenelg_Beach_in_summer.jpg

Kangaroo Island is an hour away

https://mybestplace.com/uploads/2021/08/Kangaroo-Island-Australia-COVER.jpg

Last edited by Dilbert_X (2021-10-28 16:57:39)

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unnamednewbie13
Moderator
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Do you have anything on that beach that can kill you?
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
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Everything in Australia can kill you.


Pretty sure these can kill you - my foot for scale - but they are not on my local beaches, yet.

https://i.imgur.com/jJfKSpa.jpg

These friendly fellows like a day at the beach now and then

https://www.abc.net.au/news/image/11810690-3x2-940x627.jpg
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unnamednewbie13
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Snakes are cute though. Have you ever seen those snake shop videos? Tub of 30 babies nipping at a handler. "Ow! Ow! Ow!"
SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+635|3716
I don't know why people want to keep lizards as pets. The animals are just too dumb. Even a cat will acknowledge you as a thing that it important.
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,810|6103|eXtreme to the maX
Spiders scare me more than snakes, seen plenty of brown snakes in the wild.
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uziq
Member
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Dilbert_X wrote:

Glad to see you're following the lager-lout lifestyle, but I mean obviously burning literally a ton of kerosene to travel half way around the world and ... drink beer on a beach - truly mind-expanding stuff and totally worth the cost.

I have a beach 20 mins from home.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/45/Glenelg_Beach_in_summer.jpg

Kangaroo Island is an hour away

https://mybestplace.com/uploads/2021/08/Kangaroo-Island-Australia-COVER.jpg
mindblowing concept, i know, but you actually travelled ... a further distance ... than me ... to get to that beach yourself.

i didn't travel here solely to a beach, did i? i'm in this region for the medium-long term. just like you are in australia for the long-term.

do you do several hail marys every day for your Original Sin of taking a plane to australia? and i hope you take public transport to those beaches and islands an hour or so away. i've never owned a car and frankly walk most places in my city of residence.

weird to call 'moving to a country, working there, living there, paying tax and being domiciled there' as 'taking a trip to drink a few beers'.

lager lout

Last edited by uziq (2021-10-28 18:31:09)

unnamednewbie13
Moderator
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SuperJail Warden wrote:

I don't know why people want to keep lizards as pets. The animals are just too dumb. Even a cat will acknowledge you as a thing that it important.
Snake intelligence is a thing of ongoing research for herpetologists. You can look up a number of interesting studies on that. What animals feel, think, or how smart they are is, vocal and non-vocal communication, in general are subjects of ongoing research. I don't think intelligence should be a prerequisite for compassionate treatment. I imagine a spacefaring species might regard us as fairly stupid with limited brainpower, and I'd sure hope they wouldn't treat us like we'd treat some of our animals.

I've never owned a snake and have no plans on getting one, but I still think they're cute. If I got one, I'd probably spring for one that is OK in the Pacific Northwest and give it a way to slither outside into an enclosure with real plants and dirt. Snake owners do say that going outside (along with having a sufficiently large and outfitted terrarium) seems to improve their animals' mood. A common garter snake might enjoy going for the post-rain worms that are still surfaced.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,810|6103|eXtreme to the maX

uziq wrote:

the idea of a sterilized, hermetically sealed nation that has 'zero covid' and just needs to police its borders and wipe-down its imports using bleach is a fucking NONSENSE. it's pie-in-the-sky, childish wish fulfilment, 'if only...' stuff.
As an increasing number of countries around the world reopen their international borders, China is still pursuing its COVID-zero strategy — and the lengthy quarantine process is part of it.

Key points:
China is building a quarantine facility in Guangzhou with more than 5,000 rooms for overseas travellers
People travelling to some cities in China would have to quarantine twice in two different locations
China is unlikely to give up their COVID-zero strategy before the Winter Olympics in Beijing next year

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-31/ … /100574180

Last edited by Dilbert_X (2021-10-30 15:11:23)

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