BF2S Forums Pandemic thread

I'm starting to get a little concerned about the effects on the economy and the possibility of a second financial crash. Seeing as the cash flow of major financial institutions is quite dependent on credit, loan & mortgage payments, the situation might get rather problematic. With unemployment shooting up and many SMBs closing doors late payments & loan defaults will increase significantly. Larger corporations are also enormously leveraged, combined with the fact that there's a stock market bubble in large company stocks due to the popularity of passive investing. The potential for a disastrous cascade is there and the question is if the banks have enough liquid assets to ride it out ... and how governments will respond if they don't.

Larssen wrote:

I'm starting to get a little concerned about the effects on the economy and the possibility of a second financial crash. Seeing as the cash flow of major financial institutions is quite dependent on credit, loan & mortgage payments, the situation might get rather problematic. With unemployment shooting up and many SMBs closing doors late payments & loan defaults will increase significantly. Larger corporations are also enormously leveraged, combined with the fact that there's a stock market bubble in large company stocks due to the popularity of passive investing. The potential for a disastrous cascade is there and the question is if the banks have enough liquid assets to ride it out ... and how governments will respond if they don't.

well, most stimulus bills seem to be for the sake of the mega-corporations and stock market. how many billionaires have added 20% to their wealth in the last 12 months? meanwhile lots of ordinarily very viable businesses -- restaurants, night life, cinemas, etc -- are being left to swing in the wind. terrifically short-termist thinking.

ironically all the people who are being given huge tax cuts, subsidies and rescue packages are the same class who avoid tax at all costs. the mom-and-pop stores and struggling middle-class who dutifully make up the majority of the tax base are being shunted to mass unemployment.

what can possibly go wrong!

Dilbert_X wrote:

The Chinese are possibly in one of the worst situations, massively leveraged at every level and so desperate they're having to eat humble noodles and continuing to buy iron ore and coal from the hated Australians. We'd be fucked if they didn't.

lol this is incredibly fanciful stuff. the chinese 'humbled'? dependent on australia? really dilbert? they just announced their intentions to go carbon neutral in the next 40-50 years. china also imports massive amounts from brazil/south america, south africa, and india.

'demand has fallen off a cliff', really, where? among australian tories, you mean? all i see is trump trying to start a tech war and shooting american companies/users in the foot.

Last edited by uziq (2020-09-28 02:22:16)

Obviously its not going to be an instant thing, I'm hearing Chinese factories are being shuttered and I'm being bombarded by Chinese sales managers.

China is currently propping up the economy through infrastructure spending and they currently have little choice but to buy iron or and coking coal from Australia.  They're intent on restricting imports from Australia, having targeted barley, wheat, meat, dairy etc, now working on wine and doubtless a few other things, right now they have little choice.
I'm sure it will change once Mongolia etc are developed.

Last edited by Dilbert_X (2020-09-28 03:16:08)

china will still be the factory of the world for well into the next century. covid-19 might damage international relations, but not half as much as xi jinping's aggressive aims. still, and regardless, anything short of a massive war will not shift the structure of the world economy. consumers is the west do not want to start paying western labour prices for their gadgets (they can't afford to).

the chinese middle-class are comparatively very wealthy and have robust savings. a lot of that might be tied in the stock market and in inflated speculation, sure, but they've got cash under the mattress. the western middle-class, by contrast, look like hungry pigeons. i don't think china is 'humbled' or 'quaking' in its boots at all. and they are certainly not vitally dependent on fucking australia.

this sort of sabre-rattling what-what talk from old conservative whites is just tragically funny. china does not need you.

you criticize them for 'propping up the economy through infrastructure spending': well, so what? in comparison to the west's propping up their economy with ... what, exactly? china produces a huge number of goods and they're centrally directing huge amounts of funds and jobs towards infrastructure. that looks positively robust compared to the west. what are western countries doing? printing money and paying its population of waiters and bartenders to sit at home?

i'm sorry but if massive infrastructure spending and property speculation is 'precarious', then the west is truly fucked. we don't even have the infrastructure or capital investment part anymore.

once again i think you are absolutely delusional if you think the chinese economy will crash without australia. they already import those same materials from elsewhere.

why don't you talk about how much the australian economy needs china? weird how you never frame it that way.

Last edited by uziq (2020-09-28 03:43:51)

almost all electronics components are made in china, not just the flashy end-assembled designer products. ditto with large-scale industrial chemicals, pharmaceuticals, textiles and consumables ... are you seriously this fucking dumb? you really think the chinese economy is apple gadgets and huawei?

yes, precisely, china is australia's biggest trade partner. who is in a stronger position here? australia? you really think china is going to fall over without australia's ore? lmao.

i don't know, dilbert, i think most people are looking at this pandemic for what it is and not concluding that an entirely new global order is going to be ushered in on the back of it. you've been proclaiming at times that the world will never be the same again, etc, the west will divorce itself from china utterly, blah blah. i think you have a very limited and parochial australian perspective on that. the rest of the world isn't half as politically piqued about china as evidently australia is.

and what has trump done for all of his blathering about china and american jobs? opened a few amazon warehouses in rust-belt cities?

It takes two to tango, the Chinese had the worlds biggest plan to take the worlds manufacturing and make it theirs.

Dauntless wrote:

KEN-JENNINGS wrote:

Coworker was exposed through a family member. Coworker's test result just came back positive. I find out my test results tonight.

Had to shut the office down and request all employees get tested.

Coworker's family member who they live with was symptomatic, but coworker did not disclose it until after the family member tested positive. Coworker was still coming to work despite knowing their family member may have covid-19.

Stay safe everyone

Hope you're alright m8, did the test come back ok?

Yeah so far only the coworker has tested positive, and half the results have come back negative for the rest.

Thanks for the well-wishes

@larssen: we have wfh arrangements set up. The only people currently coming to work every day are logistics people who are integral to the day to day operations of the company. Since I'm the highest ranking member in the U.S., I'm responsible for all the people in this office. I cut the manpower in half and will go back to weekly teams to limit cross exposure. Also requiring everyone who was originally exposed to get tested 7 days from the original test and then 14 days, just to be safe. Company is paying for all the tests and missed hours for any non-exempt salaried and hourly workers.

One of the benefits for working for a Taiwanese corporation is that they take pandemics very seriously, and it reflects in the support I'm getting.