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uziq
Member
+460|2748
at this point he has careened through about 4 major political disasters. everyone can see that the posturing and grandstanding over ukraine is just that. the opportunism seems distinctly distasteful, even to the conservative heartlands, i imagine.

a lot of MPs have been using the 'there's a war on, we can't scrutinize the PM now' line constantly in recent weeks. it doesn't fool anyone. we, er, changed PM and continued on with usual democracy party politics in just about every major world conflict in the last 200 years.
unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+1,975|6068|USA

There are probably circumstances where changing horses midstream is actually advisable.
uziq
Member
+460|2748
it's amazing that the brexit-flavored tory parties who constantly talk about the 'blitz spirit' and the glories of ww2 also trot out the 'we can't change leaders when there's an international conflict going on' line. what do they think happened in the 1930s and 1940s?
unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+1,975|6068|USA

Bojo had a piece of paper assuring him that Brexit would go just fine.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,776|5402|eXtreme to the maX

uziq wrote:

dilbert, seeing as you instinctively understand 'the people' whom you left behind 30 years ago, perhaps you can tell me?
Everyone is exactly like you - no ideology, driven by venal short-term self-interest.

A lot of people will have figured out Brexit wasn't really in their personal interest overall

The red wall seats curiously carried on voting conservative - they've been promised 'levelling up', when its not delivered they'll revert.

Northern Ireland has probably figured they're better off being part of europe than supporting a bunch of oxford toffs who couldn't give a shit about them

Also partygate, people are pissed, it will be funny if Starmer gets done too.
Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,776|5402|eXtreme to the maX

unnamednewbie13 wrote:

There are probably circumstances where changing horses midstream is actually advisable.
If your horse is drowning because its full of shit, for example.
Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!
uziq
Member
+460|2748

Dilbert_X wrote:

uziq wrote:

dilbert, seeing as you instinctively understand 'the people' whom you left behind 30 years ago, perhaps you can tell me?
Everyone is exactly like you - no ideology, driven by venal short-term self-interest.
great stuff, as per usual your political analysis goes no deeper than an edgy misanthrope teenager.

venal short-term self-interest lmao. dilbert knows best. he's seen the movie idiocracy.
Larssen
Member
+90|1183
Back to ukraine:

War seems to be unfolding in a way no-one expected. I'm sure everyone has read this before but it bears repeating. Apart from some early successes in the east, the Russian advance seems to have come to a near standstill. Up to 20,000 killed (high US estimate, derived from sat imagery), at least x3 that number wounded - it's possible that of the 130 deployed battallion tactical groups more than half are now under strength/non deployable for the coming weeks/months, up to a third perhaps even destroyed entirely. The losses are completely devastating.

Looking at shared video footage of engagements it's still strange to see how amateuristic the ground forces appear to be. Large convoys moving around without air coverage, unable to effectively respond to ambushes, no effective combined arms engagements, too much old/faulty equipment, logistical issues also still remain. As the war progresses the Russians do seem to be improving, but at a huge cost. Tactics now have shifted to mass artillery bombardment, the Russians outgunning and outranging the Ukrainians. It's helping them inch forward here and there. You'll notice western governments are scrambling to send modern artillery to Ukraine to help them counter the threat.

Should be emphasised that the Ukrainians are putting up an absolutely heroic effort. Lots of small scale (urban) ambushes, often completely stopping any attempted russian advance. Dozens of succesful assassinations on top Russian battlefield leadership (who are also much closer to the front than they should be because comms keep being sabotaged). They're making fantastic use of all the weaponry provided by the west, but seem to thus far avoid large scale troop movements and engagements (indicating they're numerically/materially still outgunned, but the defence in depth is also a smart use of resources). There's currently an attempted assault to retake Kherson, but it remains to be seen if this will actually be possible.

It isn't reported on much, but the Ukrainians are also suffering terrible losses - in numbers probably comparable to the Russians. Despite their efforts, there's also a lot of amateurs in the field on their side. Anecdotally, the worst I've seen shared is a group of 20 infantry being vaporised by an enemy tank at near point blank range. They failed to recognise that they were being approached by Russian cavalry (while looking directly at them) and didn't at all take any precautions. Terrible way to go. There's more stories of idiots at the front lighting cigarettes at night and being hit by tank shells as a result. Ukrainians also seem unable to effectively coordinate artillery support with their ground forces at the front.

---

So what does it all mean for the future? Couple thoughts:

Ukraine has already made clear that it demands a return to the borders from pre- feb 24th. Putin has reportedly lost interest in a diplomatic solution (if he had any in the first place) and, frankly, he will probably hold on to his stated strategic goals. It depends on what spin he will use to declare victory, at the very least he'll want to claim donetsk/luhansk, mariupol, kherson and the bridge to Crimea. He hasn't completed all these goals yet, much less secured them. Seeing as the Ukrainians will probably also find it very difficult to mount assaults against the Russian positions, it's probable the current conflict will freeze while both sides regroup and replenish their losses. The russians still should have plenty forces in reserve to reinforce all deployed units. Conversely, the longer this takes, the more Ukrainian conscripts will be fielded and the more western weaponry will appear in theatre. It's entirely possible there will be phases of bloody assaults for the coming months, if not the entire coming year.

Tomorrow will also be a very important moment as it's Russia's V-day. Putin will use this moment to comment on the 'special military operation' in Ukraine. It's unknown at this time what he'll say/announce. Plenty speculation abound though - the ukrainians think he'll formally declare war and announce a draft. I think that's unlikely, but expecting the worst has made for accurate guesses so far.

Just a thought, but I think ultimately Putin might've fallen 'victim' to the state he created himself. Modernising Russia's military was a top priority for him during his entire presidency. The V-day military parade has only been made into an annual event since 2008, to showcase the newest innovations. But having also created a state controlled through corruption and oligarchy, and by surrounding himself only with loyalists, the decades of investment into the armed forces seemed to have amounted to little more than contracts awarded to his own oligarch friends for the production of flashy new weaponry while none of it contributed to an actual shoring up of the cold-war era army.

Russia now has a T-14 they still haven't produced after showcasing it 8 years ago, a stealth fighter that's unaffordable, new nuclear weapons, yet the actual armed forces are clearly marred by lacking education and training, equipment, severe logistical issues and so on. I guess that if you systematically eliminate integrity and critical thought from your state apparatus, an attempted modernisation of your armed forces, too, can only end up being a corrupt mess. He probably didn't even know, considering all the yes-men that surrounded him. I'm sure he was presented a very rosy picture of affairs.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,776|5402|eXtreme to the maX

uziq wrote:

great stuff, as per usual your political analysis goes no deeper than an edgy misanthrope teenager.
Doesn't matter how deep yours is when it invariably turns out to be wrong.
Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,776|5402|eXtreme to the maX

Larssen wrote:

Back to ukraine:
I did see the video of the Ukrainians taking selfies on the knocked out Russian tank and not noticing the T72 rumbling up behind them, probably thought it was theirs.

There are lots of angles:

Apparently the Russians have had their communications thoroughly jammed, which does make communication hard.

Combined arms operations are hard at the best of times, to make them work you need great systems, a lot of training and exercises and great communications. Without this having small numbers of expensive and advanced weapon systems is useless.

Now the Ukrainians are a bit stuck. Their best option would be to retreat and let the Russians stretch out their supply lines which they can then attack - as in Kyiv, but they don't want to give ground so they have to sit and take the artillery barrages which I guess the Russians can do forever.

It seems Biden would be OK with a non-nuclear involvement of NATO to put Putin back in his box. Overt assistance to Ukraine has been immense and the covert stuff seems to have been carefully leaked.

I would guess Putin is ging to try to hold what he has and make plodding gains from here. Only NATO involvement, an aneurysm or Russian revolt will change it.
Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!
Larssen
Member
+90|1183
NATO will not be (directly) involved. It is a defensive alliance and can only be truly mobilised if article 5 is triggered. We can and do send lots of weaponry to the ukrainian war effort. If the preparation is now focused on a long war, that may shift the balance in Ukraine's favour if enough time is devoted to organising and training their military in using all the new western equipment that is being delivered. So far they have actually made use of a defence in depth strategy that has served them very well.

It is possible the current borders will freeze for a number of months if not years, with bloody pointless assaults from both sides. A defeat in the field may ultimately end Putin's presidency, but that remains to be seen. Here's hoping.

I still feel it was madness to so overtly send all sorts of weaponry to Ukraine, but what is done is done. I do fear that as the war drags on and succes seems farther and farther out of reach, Putin and his staff may resort to tactical nuclear escalation.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,776|5402|eXtreme to the maX
For all we know Putin may want to go down in a blaze of glory against NATO. What he doesn't want is a grinding defeat. His ego wouldn't take it and it would likely mean the end of him.
Funny that an adventure in Afghanistan brought down the Soviet Union and this could bring down whats left of it.

America has been more than careless in broadcasting what its been up to, there has to be a reason for this.
Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!
uziq
Member
+460|2748

Dilbert_X wrote:

uziq wrote:

great stuff, as per usual your political analysis goes no deeper than an edgy misanthrope teenager.
Doesn't matter how deep yours is when it invariably turns out to be wrong.
https://twitter.com/amyyqin/status/1523 … 1Jt3_-e-iw

sorry, what was that?

you must be getting excited about your business trip?
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,776|5402|eXtreme to the maX
Thank you but I'm not using a platform owned by a nerd who won't accept he doesn't deserve all the money he's earned.

The world has failed to contain a chinese bio-weapon which has killed more than six million people, thats more than the jews killed in the holocaust.

Why are you so pleased about this? You gloat at every opportunity. Its very weird.
Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!
uziq
Member
+460|2748
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,776|5402|eXtreme to the maX
Maybe we should have learned to live with Nazism, for the sake of the economy, fighting a war was a waste of everyone's time, they only killed people who were going to die anyway.
Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,776|5402|eXtreme to the maX
Also did you know people could hardly travel at all during WW2?

So stupid.
Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!
uziq
Member
+460|2748
korea has been at war for 70 years. imagine what would happen if all travel, especially for business, was banned during that time. great thinking, dipshit.
uziq
Member
+460|2748

Dilbert_X wrote:

Maybe we should have learned to live with Nazism, for the sake of the economy, fighting a war was a waste of everyone's time, they only killed people who were going to die anyway.
also what on earth are you talking about. you sound deranged?

comparing covid-19 to nazism, a sure stroke of genius.

Last edited by uziq (2022-05-09 07:35:06)

unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+1,975|6068|USA

Why in the world are we talking about covid, jews, and ww2 and its nazis? In this forum's "glory days" this thread would have like 30 pages of deleted posts and its own thread in the mod section of people going "wtf even."
SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+558|3016
The Philippines electing a Marcos is something. Imelda Marcos is 92 and lived to see her family come back to power. Amazing.
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
uziq
Member
+460|2748
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 … court-told

imagine ranting about the jews for supporting tyranny and authoritarianism in the modern world when this is the default modus operandi in the west.

of course, with dilbert the sympathy is selective. ukrainians and palestinians at a stretch deserve his noble white man’s pity. but not the houthis or famine-struck dead children of the house of saud’s enemies. no, it’s israel who are the great evil.
SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+558|3016

unnamednewbie13 wrote:

Why in the world are we talking about covid, jews, and ww2 and its nazis? In this forum's "glory days" this thread would have like 30 pages of deleted posts and its own thread in the mod section of people going "wtf even."
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/D9GYCElcZNA
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+1,975|6068|USA

For every time a dad rewatches a Hitler documentary, they should watch stuff like Schindler's List or Come and See along with it.

Some of those documentaries I've seen have anti-Nazism merely existing as a brief, obligatory footnote to lowkey admiration/boasting of German engineering and politics and conquest. I mean come on, they couldn't engineer themselves a single world war won.
SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+558|3016
Huge problem in the circles that are interested in World War 2. There is actually a term for it: Wehraboo

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define. … m=Wehraboo

Hard pill to swallow: The Germans were losing the war by late 1942.
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg

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