BF2S Forums Where are all the whiny peaceful "Enlightened" European now?

Germany and some other countries are dependent on russian gas to such an extent that cutting it off would cause every home to lose heating & massive power outages within a week or two. The rest of europe does not have enough supply/reserves to make up the difference, and gas prices would skyrocket even far beyond current pricing.

I think this is public knowledge by now (what isn't), but let's say these dependencies are in the order of >80% of their gas supply. Sanctioning Russian gas will only become feasible when spring is here and if alternative arrangements can be made in short order.

Several reasons for why things became this way; capitalism at work and in hindsight the clearly wrong assumption that the economic interdependence would prevent conflict.

Last edited by Larssen (2022-03-05 00:37:06)

the moves on the central bank and dollar supply are immense. this fussing over ‘blocking russian entities’ is tipping into mccarthyism and gestural bullshit. some of it is really stupid.

imdb removed tarkovsky, arguably one of the greatest russian-language directors of all time, from their top250 ranking. never mind that he died in the late 1980s, was censored in his own career by the russian state, and consequently made half his movies in italy. russian entity!

the good busybodies of manchester are talking about removing a soviet statue of engels from the city. you know, that german thinker who lived in manchester and wrote his most influential works on the english working class. that guy who died even before the russian revolution, let alone hopes of ukrainian statehood. russian entity!

really hysterical stuff.

Larssen wrote:

Germany and some other countries are dependent on russian gas to such an extent that cutting it off would cause every home to lose heating & massive power outages within a week or two. The rest of europe does not have enough supply/reserves to make up the difference, and gas prices would skyrocket even far beyond current pricing.

I think this is public knowledge by now (what isn't), but let's say these dependencies are in the order of >80% of their gas supply. Sanctioning Russian gas will only become feasible when spring is here and if alternative arrangements can be made in short order.

Several reasons for why things became this way; capitalism at work and in hindsight the clearly wrong assumption that the economic interdependence would prevent conflict.

right. political choices. and schröder et al. have been sat on the boards of knowingly corrupt, transparently putin-ran russian energy companies ever since.

but let’s all talk about the kompromat that chelsea FC owner abramovich must have on johnson!!!

unnamednewbie13 wrote:

@mac

The fallout (invasion included by the way) from this, notice I've been using the word fallout, isn't going to be only constrained to Russia. A toll even on us for energy prices, stock market confidence, inflation. I'm not going to get into putting a price on human lives, but economic cost also ties into human cost.

I'm not "sympathizing with the enemy," and I'm certainly not interested in generalizing the Russian populace. Wasn't there a video recently of a lifelong protesting babushka getting taken away by stooges? Is she a pig person?

There is literally nothing else we can do to punish them for invading. You want to stop sending Ukraine weapons too?

SuperJail Warden wrote:

unnamednewbie13 wrote:

@mac

The fallout (invasion included by the way) from this, notice I've been using the word fallout, isn't going to be only constrained to Russia. A toll even on us for energy prices, stock market confidence, inflation. I'm not going to get into putting a price on human lives, but economic cost also ties into human cost.

I'm not "sympathizing with the enemy," and I'm certainly not interested in generalizing the Russian populace. Wasn't there a video recently of a lifelong protesting babushka getting taken away by stooges? Is she a pig person?

There is literally nothing else we can do to punish them for invading. You want to stop sending Ukraine weapons too?

How does stopping, as zeek put it, the McCarthyism equate to discontinuing matériel support for Ukraine?

Dilbert_X wrote:

uziq wrote:

the moves on the central bank and dollar supply are immense. this fussing over ‘blocking russian entities’ is tipping into mccarthyism and gestural bullshit. some of it is really stupid.

The Russian stock exchange has been shut, when it opens its going to be world-ending.
At this point I don't see a problem, seal the borders for people, goods and money, see how they like it back in the USSR in the 1950s.

Nice picture of Russians fleeing to Finland, Mercedes, BMW, Audi.

i mean, yeah, neat illustration of how sanctions and rebuilding the iron curtain are just going to immiserate the majority of the russian population who are already poor (average salary $400/month) and already drip-fed state propaganda 24/7.

the meatheads who join up the VDV, full of patriotic fervour, aren’t the ones driving expensive luxury german cars, with dual-passports or international contacts, dilbert. use your head.

“look at this picture of the russian bourgeoisie and elite fleeing to finland! har har! if we make things really miserable in the country, putin will fall!”



don’t get me wrong, these clearly are the best-available measures in lieu of military force. but we are being rather optimistic about some of their hoped-for effects.

Last edited by uziq (2022-03-05 00:56:59)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ … dont-work/

Anti-aircraft missiles Germany offered Ukraine don't work: Soviet-era missiles were declared obsolete in 2014 and have become corroded in storage.

amazing. scholz got a standing ovation in the german parliament for this ‘momentous’ pivot.

so thus far a bunch of european states have made a big song and dance about arming ukrainians, sending fighter jets, etc, announcing to putin that they’re intending to fight a proxy war … and the plane offer immediately came to nothing, and germany are clearing out their warehouses of junk.

but how about those ‘optics’ hey boys?

uziq wrote:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/04/anti-aircraft-missiles-germany-offered-ukraine-dont-work/

Anti-aircraft missiles Germany offered Ukraine don't work: Soviet-era missiles were declared obsolete in 2014 and have become corroded in storage.

amazing. scholz got a standing ovation in the german parliament for this ‘momentous’ pivot.

so thus far a bunch of european states have made a big song and dance about arming ukrainians, sending fighter jets, etc, announcing to putin that they’re intending to fight a proxy war … and the plane offer immediately came to nothing, and germany are clearing out their warehouses of junk.

but how about those ‘optics’ hey boys?

Why do you care? Don't you want Russians to stop getting hurt?

Thats a shitty maneuvre, fuck Germany then.

Meanwhile in Germany

Last edited by Dilbert_X (2022-03-05 01:01:34)

uziq wrote:

“look at this picture of the russian bourgeoisie and elite fleeing to finland! har har! if we make things really miserable in the country, putin will fall!”



don’t get me wrong, these clearly are the best-available measures in lieu of military force. but we are being rather optimistic about some of their hoped-for effects.

The oligarchs and the bourgeoisie have a better chance of dealing with Putin than the whole rest of the population.

If they can't take money out of Russia and anything they have is seized then hopefully they'll start thinking.

If anyone has a better short term idea then great.

Dilbert_X wrote:

uziq wrote:

“look at this picture of the russian bourgeoisie and elite fleeing to finland! har har! if we make things really miserable in the country, putin will fall!”



don’t get me wrong, these clearly are the best-available measures in lieu of military force. but we are being rather optimistic about some of their hoped-for effects.

The oligarchs and the bourgeoisie have a better chance of dealing with Putin than the whole rest of the population.

If they can't take money out of Russia and anything they have is seized then hopefully they'll start thinking.

If anyone has a better short term idea then great.

putin doesn’t care about the effects of the war on the bourgeoisie. this is obvious. he’s sending 1000s of youths into a meat grinder. you think he’s having second thoughts because the iphone 13 is no longer for sale in nevsky prospekt?

i am not hopeful about this line of thinking that supposes the oligarchs can get his ear or force a coup. putin is too isolated, too insulated. he has control of the oligarchs: it’s been the trajectory of his entire presidency to bring them to heel, to break them, not the other way around. in putin’s head the entire success of russia is more and more synonymous with his rule personally. and, i should say, his conception of greatness and success is not even particularly interested in the economics of it. that’s how he sees it. as for the dwindling fortunes of his oligarchs: the lord giveth and the lord taketh away …

look at the people who do actually have access to him now. the two senior chiefs of staff he dragged in with his nuclear chest beating. one of them has been a favoured insider since before the fall of the soviet union.



do you have any idea how adept an asslicker you have to be to ride out sovietism, the wild east of the 1990s, and putinism? this guy is the meaning of obsequiousness. most of putin‘s ‘top’ advisors have already been axed long ago ffs. their last head of defence got axed from his post because he was too good at reforms and was upsetting the corrupt gravytrain. you think these remaining people are going to stage a coup?

Last edited by uziq (2022-03-05 01:24:25)

i don’t think the short term of this can be influenced by ‘other people’s’ ideas, unfortunately. this is a hardboiled case of realism in great powers throwing their weight around.

uziq wrote:

i don’t think the short term of this can be influenced by ‘other people’s’ ideas, unfortunately. this is a hardboiled case of realism in great powers throwing their weight around.

Probably not but bringing the Russian financial system to ruin in a week or so isn't a bad option.

Interest rates are at 20% now, the rouble has collapsed, the stock exchange will drop to zero if it ever reopens. This could be worse than the 30s crash for the US.
Block hydrocarbon exports for 2-3 months and something might happen.