could go either way (i edited my opinion; there are important byelections coming up in early spring), although obviously i'm not on the ground to take the temperature. his polling has been very low lately after controversy after controversy - tory cronyism, dodgy fast-track covid contracts fer donors and mates, breaking countless parliamentary rules about, e.g. accepting financial donations to redecorate the downing street flat (as well as generally being way too close to russian billionaires like his quondam newspaper boss, lebedev, who is now, funnily enough, a peer in the house of lords, etc). i mean, talk about a shameless teflon don.
this latest controversy definitely gets to the national marrow. there's no fewer than 5, estimated 7, occasions of downing street parties or gatherings now which weren't work-related and which broke all the social distancing rules. this latest revelation, and the most egregious example, literally on the same day that the home secretary, via the strong arm of the law and police forces nationwide, were cracking down on all forms of rulebreaking or exception. there were stories during that peak summer lockdown of (exhausted, traumatized, etc) nurses and caregivers being arrested for stopping in a park or a spot with a view to have some food/drink outdoors, or gather their thoughts (you were only allowed outside once per day for essential groceries or exercise). meanwhile downing street were inviting 100 people to 'bring your own booze' to a garden party.
the image that pops up right now is the queen, alone, at a vastly reduced (~30 person) funeral ceremony for prince phillip. the monarch sat alone, abiding by the same rules as everyone else ... whilst literally 0.25km away a bunch of unelected SPADs and tory grifters were drinking wine in the downing street garden. just beyond entitled.
BUT ... can he keep the job? the problem is that there are no amazing successors; not within the tory party's own internal churnings and machinations nor generally on a national level. this is partly by design (johnson has arrogated executive power almost exclusively to no 10 and an inner sanctum of advisors, e.g. dominic cummings above) and partly as a consequence of the continued ructions/fallout of brexit: all the good and principled politicians are perforce not in johnson's cabinet of clingers-on, sycophants and cross-eyed ideologues.
rishi sunak, the chancellor next door at no 11 (and it's no accident that some of these garden party photos have leaked from an, ahem, overlooking property) has looked good in the pandemic as he's been the one making the money machine go brrrrrrr, but he's also basically a mario draghi clone (and the richest MP in the entire house of commons, by quite a margin, natch; he married an indian billionaire heiress). do we really want to replace one posho entitled twat with another public school head boy who doesn't know the price of a bottle of milk? this is not a trivial problem, either: the tories have a continuing image or 'optics' problem: previously they were the 'nasty party', under the era of austerity and theresa may, and they've only recently gained the votes of the 'red wall' working-class voters in the north thanks to the populist and polarizing brexit question. johnson has played fast and loose with that political capital (including cancelling his promised plans of massive public transport construction and upgrades in the northern region, oops) and the tories can't just push forward another toff from the 1% when they're dealing with a very major crisis of seeming, well, like a bunch of rich, entitled, corrupted plutocats.
there is literally nobody who i can think of who would make a good tory leader. you have to remember, we need a statesman who is going to be able to actually fucking deal with the post-brexit mess when this more-pressing covid mess is over.
the UK is fucked in the short term future, imo. the electorate got carried away on a tide of populism that is going to take 5-10 years, if not a generation, to compensate and course-correct.
Last edited by uziq (2022-01-14 09:41:21)