to be fair countries like spain and italy have never exactly been lynchpins of the NATO alliance. the countries that will count and which have kept large standing armies, including conscription, are russia's baltic neighbours and USA, UK, france and germany (probably in that order). turkey are a less-acknowledged NATO partner in these discussions but their location is obviously crucial, and they're doing quite a job of supplying their fancy drones to the ukrainians. much more important in these discussions than the spanish or dutch, anyway.
i would not doubt the resolve of countries like poland, finland, estonia, etc, to fight back against russia. nothing 'fragile' about their attitude towards russia. the bitter memories are too strong. they would at least all become massive quagmires of insurrection and armed civilians, as in ukraine.
presuming nukes were kept out of the equation, NATO would win comfortably on materiel alone. russia is spending its expensive cruise missiles on bombing shopping centres and killing 15 civilians at a time. not smart considering they can't access advanced tech supply lines anymore.
with that said, zelensky clearly wants to try and bring the conflict to some sort of conclusion this side of christmas. the conflict is already dropping out of news headlines and public consciousness; and hawkish LARPers like BoJo's days might be numbered. the next UK premiere will undoubtedly be cooler and more levelheaded on the drums of war rhetoric. it's foreseeable that fatigue will set in and people's appetite for ukraine will fall as the conflict drags on.
which will give out first: russia's sanctioned economy/supply lines or the rest of the world's care cup?
Last edited by uziq (2022-06-29 16:28:09)