i think that’s overegging it a bit. this is more of a riot and tantrum than an insurrection. all the senior politicians, lawmakers/judges, media and establishment, etc, have already conceded defeat. in fact, it happened with surprising ease and compliance on the results day. bolsonaro holed himself up seemingly for a few days and hit the phones with his family firm, only to find all his options had deserted him.
jair didn’t even get a chance to mobilise his rubes. the nationwide truck barricades and road blockades seemed similarly impotent. his senior team abandoned him as soon as it became clear lula won.
it’s not like they’re trying to halt the democratic process or ratification of the results, like jan 6, with a cohort of the politicos inside the building, conspiring with them to effect their ends. it’s over for bolsonaro. there’s no route to power legally or via military force.
plus the guy just looks old and sick and weakened, physically as well as charismatically, right now. he’s in poor health. these populist firebrands need to command an image of macho virility to really stoke people. he looks cucked by that little socialist ron jeremy looking dude.
i spitballed this idea before but i think the reason a coup, hard or soft, quickly evaporated and failed to materialise in brazil is because the judicial system there is still very much in overlap with its military-dictatorial junta era. meaning anyone trying to fuck with their process and failing could very easily get very hard time or even the death penalty. trump looks positively indulged and exempted in the US system, by comparison. his downfall? over top secret documents? trump org fraud? that’s lame retribution for jan 6.
Last edited by uziq (2022-12-13 16:39:16)