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Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|4844|London, England
The government, and government policy, is so intertwined with the world of finance that you can't separate the two. Fannie and Freddie back 90% of the home loans in this country right now. 90%! They're not issuing the loans, but they are buying them from mortgage lenders and banks, packaging them into mortgage backed securities, and selling them on the market. They are doing this right now, today, after everything that has happened. The Fed is printing $85BN a month right now, buying government bonds and debt, and much of that is printing is going to pay off the debt accrued by the AIG bailout and all of the toxic assets still on the books. If they're buying and backing 90% of the mortgage debt in this country, do you not think that they should have safeguards in place to check the validity of the loans? Why weren't those safeguards in place before the crash? You can blame whoever you want, but the crash would not have happened if that particular market was free from government interference and meddling. The big banks aren't going to issue risky loans if they know that they can blow up in their face, but if they can issue the loan, loans Fannie and Freddie were begging them to make, and immediately dump the risk off on the American taxpayer, they'll do it in a heartbeat.

If there was no FHA backstop people would have a very hard time getting the credit approval they would need to buy a home. There wouldn't be zero money or 5% down loans like you can still get today. It was a political choice to meddle in the housing industry because a) the realty industry in this country is bananas huge and they spend large sums money on political campaigns, b) construction is the single biggest source of jobs for low skilled males and c) politicians can say that they helped put people in their own home instead of being at the mercy of a landlord. The realty industry marketed the American Dream, but the politicians are the ones that put the system in place that allowed the stupidity to occur.

And you're right, I don't like regulation, because it doesn't work. That's very different from being angry about the SEC incompetently misleading millions of people by utterly failing at their job. People bought the MBS' because they assumed that the SEC had done their job. Those idiots cost millions of people their jobs.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,790|5592|eXtreme to the maX
It was as much about Goldman Sachs bribing the rating agencies to rate their bundled products AAA***.
Thats the one area you can point to real fraud in the system.

That and people got greedy and didn't bother to do simple risk analysis of their own.

Apart from that the system functioned more or less as intended, banks only bought AAA*** rated products, the fact that they weren't (fraud) and they didn't know they weren't (greed/laziness) doesn't mean the system is wrong or the govt shouldn't regulate.
If anything the govt should stomp on the fraud and stomp on the crap analysis and acceptance of bribes by the rating agencies - ie regulate more.
The govt should have let the greedy/lazy banks collapse as with Lehman, but that would have triggered a total meltdown and probable civil war so I dunno LOL...

The fact that Goldman Sachs etc have got away scot-free with billions of dollars - effectively of tax payers money - having precipitated this collapse is incredible.

Last edited by Dilbert_X (2013-01-02 23:06:58)

Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,790|5592|eXtreme to the maX
Well blimey, the share market continues to climb, as the GBP continues to fall further. Bank shares have risen ~40% in the last year, and are still paying 7-8% dividend yields, if they go up or down from here it doesn't matter.

I've doubled my net worth - in GBP terms - solely through currency exchanges at the right time, and have a nice gain and steady income from equities. A salary is a bonus.
Really I should spend more time on my investments, its more productive than working for 'the man'. Property in the UK is almost looking tempting right now, but I'm just not seeing a light at the end of the very long tunnel for the UK.
Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!
Uzique The Lesser
Banned
+382|3740

Dilbert_X wrote:

Well blimey, the share market continues to climb, as the GBP continues to fall further. Bank shares have risen ~40% in the last year, and are still paying 7-8% dividend yields, if they go up or down from here it doesn't matter.

I've doubled my net worth - in GBP terms - solely through currency exchanges at the right time, and have a nice gain and steady income from equities. A salary is a bonus.
not having to pay rent/mortgage to live on your own must be a pretty huge bonus too, eh. super-star investors living at home. i'm sure everyone could double their 'net worth' if they weren't paying 50-60% of their annual salary on property and overheads. dilderp.

Last edited by Uzique The Lesser (2013-03-12 06:43:05)

Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|4844|London, England

Dilbert_X wrote:

Well blimey, the share market continues to climb, as the GBP continues to fall further. Bank shares have risen ~40% in the last year, and are still paying 7-8% dividend yields, if they go up or down from here it doesn't matter.

I've doubled my net worth - in GBP terms - solely through currency exchanges at the right time, and have a nice gain and steady income from equities. A salary is a bonus.
Really I should spend more time on my investments, its more productive than working for 'the man'. Property in the UK is almost looking tempting right now, but I'm just not seeing a light at the end of the very long tunnel for the UK.
It's a bubble right now, be cautious. My government is printing $85BN per month, and that money is sitting in American banks, which is in turn invested in the stock market. Our banks aren't lending anymore, they're just propping up the stock market bubble.

We're smack dab in the middle of a currency war right now. Tread cautiously.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,790|5592|eXtreme to the maX
It is a bubble, or maybe not, either way I want to profit out of it.

Sentiment could run out of the door any moment, then again most of the people I know are still sitting on a ton of cash they pulled from the market in 2008 and are looking for yield, as is every superannuation fund manager.
I guess there's a chance of runaway inflation as a consequence - in which case I think it pays to stay in shares.

PE and dividend yields don't seem all that far from historical norms, payout ratios aren't all that high, at least in Aus equities.
Blue chip companies paying 6-7-8% dividends like clockwork are not uncommon here, its reasonably probable it could go a good bit higher.

I'd like to buy GBP as I could go back, but I don't see any real economic upside there in a generation. USD might be worth a punt I guess, if not at least I can blow it in Vegas. Apparently casinos have free food and stuff. Is that true?

Maybe gold bars, I've always wanted some bling in the safe.

Uzique wrote:

i'm sure everyone could double their 'net worth' if they weren't paying 50-60% of their annual salary on property and overheads

Dilbert_X wrote:

solely through currency exchanges at the right time
lrn2english
Besides currency related gains I've also had investment returns and salary, and not many outgoings obviously
Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|4844|London, England
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/03/20130313_DOWSPX.jpg

Not saying it's going to happen...but I'm nervous.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
Macbeth
Banned
+2,444|5072



Do birds sitting on your car make you nervous too?
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|4844|London, England
No. Inflationary bubbles and currency wars do.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,790|5592|eXtreme to the maX

Jay wrote:



Not saying it's going to happen...but I'm nervous.
You're probably right, this time I think a meltdown in Chinese property will kick it off.
Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!
Uzique The Lesser
Banned
+382|3740
i predict a meltdown in dilbert's mom's domestic property in the next 5 years if he doesn't stop sitting on all of his income and move out.
Ilocano
buuuurrrrrrppppp.......
+341|6153

Jay wrote:



Not saying it's going to happen...but I'm nervous.
Yeah,  shits about to hit the fan.   JP Morgan Chase.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,790|5592|eXtreme to the maX
The US is still printing money, the Japanese are now printing money, the Eurozone is robbing investors - property owners next.

My banking shares returned 50% in one year, my portfolio 20% overall.

Where is this going?

Last edited by Dilbert_X (2013-04-25 17:06:05)

Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|4844|London, England
It's a bubble that is wholly propped up by debt monetization. I don't see how the central banks can pull out now... It's going to lead to a very bad end. Buy gold.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
Uzique The Lesser
Banned
+382|3740

Jay wrote:

It's a bubble that is wholly propped up by debt monetization. I don't see how the central banks can pull out now... It's going to lead to a very bad end. Buy gold.
or a house of your own to live in. property is always a good investment, you know.
Macbeth
Banned
+2,444|5072

The sky is falling. Buy bitcoins.
Uzique The Lesser
Banned
+382|3740
actually i'm pretty sure bitcoins just lost a huge chunk of their value overnight as well, because of some reddit scaremongering or something equally stupid. bitcoins are an interesting concept but are an absolutely crazy currency to go in on, in all but the most desperate circumstances (e.g. cyprus banking fallout). 2 weeks ago when i went to buy some it was almost £100 for 1 bitcoin. now it's considerably lower than that. the bitcoin market is like a paranoiac and mentally ill cousin of the real currency exchange.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,790|5592|eXtreme to the maX

Uzique The Lesser wrote:

Jay wrote:

It's a bubble that is wholly propped up by debt monetization. I don't see how the central banks can pull out now... It's going to lead to a very bad end. Buy gold.
or a house of your own to live in. property is always a good investment, you know.
Cash worked well for me in the last crash, I'm not so sure property is a good investment at this point in the Aus market.
Gold might not be a bad idea.
Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|4844|London, England

Dilbert_X wrote:

Uzique The Lesser wrote:

Jay wrote:

It's a bubble that is wholly propped up by debt monetization. I don't see how the central banks can pull out now... It's going to lead to a very bad end. Buy gold.
or a house of your own to live in. property is always a good investment, you know.
Cash worked well for me in the last crash, I'm not so sure property is a good investment at this point in the Aus market.
Gold might not be a bad idea.
Physical gold though, not gold ETFs.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
Uzique The Lesser
Banned
+382|3740

Dilbert_X wrote:

Uzique The Lesser wrote:

Jay wrote:

It's a bubble that is wholly propped up by debt monetization. I don't see how the central banks can pull out now... It's going to lead to a very bad end. Buy gold.
or a house of your own to live in. property is always a good investment, you know.
Cash worked well for me in the last crash, I'm not so sure property is a good investment at this point in the Aus market.
Gold might not be a bad idea.
buy an apartment or flat back in the UK in somewhere desirable, lease it out, it'll be the easiest money you've ever made. both my girlfriend's parents and my grandfather sit on a nice annuity ensured by the 'landlord class's privileges in the UK. you should know this - you're a child of thatcher, are you not? especially with the current coalition in places like london. they love a landlord, and hate a tenant.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,790|5592|eXtreme to the maX
Yes, I'd want the actual gold bars.

Rental yields are looking like shit at present, and a possible capital collapse makes it unappealing.
Labour could win the next election and the currency and property will most probably collapse.
Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!
Macbeth
Banned
+2,444|5072

Buy silver.
Uzique The Lesser
Banned
+382|3740

Dilbert_X wrote:

Yes, I'd want the actual gold bars.

Rental yields are looking like shit at present, and a possible capital collapse makes it unappealing.
Labour could win the next election and the currency and property will most probably collapse.
maybe if the labour party of the 1960's won the election. as if the labour party today would turn on the property market.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,790|5592|eXtreme to the maX
The current Labour crop are dumber than the last. A Spanish-style collapse would be almost inevitable.
Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,790|5592|eXtreme to the maX
Sold my QBE shares, 53.7% gain in five months isn't too bad, and they were on a P/E of 20 so time to get out.

I've cashed up 25% of my portfolio in the last six 3-4 months - feels good.

Last edited by Dilbert_X (2013-05-23 03:15:49)

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