SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+635|3712
Article on National Review softly saying we need to think about how Generation Z is being affected by the ongoing crisis just as they enter adulthood. The National Review commentators are having none of it though. As usual.
https://i.imgur.com/GkECfBL.png
It's funny how within about 10 years, two "once in a century" economic crisis wiped out Millennials and Gen Z. Meanwhile the boomer president is pointing to the fake numbers on wall street as major success.
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
uziq
Member
+492|3444
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,810|6098|eXtreme to the maX

SuperJail Warden wrote:

Article on National Review softly saying we need to think about how Generation Z is being affected by the ongoing crisis just as they enter adulthood. The National Review commentators are having none of it though. As usual.

It's funny how within about 10 years, two "once in a century" economic crisis wiped out Millennials and Gen Z. Meanwhile the boomer president is pointing to the fake numbers on wall street as major success.
With the massive overhang in the economy once in a century events are probably going to happen about every five years.

At this point the DJIA probably deserves to fall about 50%, maybe more. Its going to blow up sometime.
Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!
Larssen
Member
+99|1880

Pochsy wrote:

So that analysis holds true, or has the potential to be true, if we are assuming 1.) that the market is tied to the economy in a meaningful way, and 2.) that the market prices securities primarily using fundamental analysis and is not more-so speculative. Both of those assumptions appear to be very heavily challenged by the current situation we are seeing now where markets are clearly divorced from the underlying economic indicators and almost all investors, both retail and institutional, are trading on speculation as to the severity, length, and resiliency of businesses.

I don't at all doubt that we'll see a pullback in the coming months, but I don't think it's going to be a crater that takes years to climb out of. I think, as you've suggested, that there's a whole lot of cash being sat on at the moment, and that money is looking for a dip to buy. Depending on when that second dip happens and how depleted cash reserves are by that time, the pullback may immediately be reversed when the opportunists trying to time the market see an opening.
To come back to this discussion: there are of course several factors influencing stock market pricing. Fundamentals, technicals and more recently just 'hype' - either latching on to stocks because they're 'future tech' or because of FOMO, completely detached from any rational analysis. Technicals are becoming ever more important as more of the trading is automated, the machines making moves mostly because of technical indicators.

Yes it's true that many opportunists seem to be in waiting for a second dip. What happened in march was a panicked sell-off, though I'd also like to underline that we're equally blind now, only this time trending upwards as millions of people latch on to this dip to make a quick buck, many of whom enabled by new brokerage platforms that have made it easier than ever before to participate in trading. But we're blind for the fact that as of yet very little is actually known about the state of several sectors and their constituent players.

Ultimately fundamentals do matter a great deal. It is a certainty that in the coming months and year, and still depending on how the situation unfolds, there will be companies announcing abysmal performance and there will be companies forced to declare bankruptcies. While you may point to the example of hertz that it doesn't matter at all today - it does. At some point everyone still holding the stock at the spike will lose enormous amoutns of money as it drops. A company in bankruptcy no longer generates any value. It's past its expiration date and will be thrown in with the trash sooner or later. It's like a hot potato being passed around, each next buyer in his or her greed hoping to still profit a little.

I don't know exactly what the effect of the whole situation will be on economic performance and how that will translate to the stock market. But every long-serving professional in the investment world I've listened to in the last two months is convinced that current pricings are completely uunrealistic/unsustainable and that there will be another sell-off and perhaps sustained drop. I don't see an argument to deviate from that position. While we may not see a cliff dive like in march, market performance may still end up significantly below those numbers in the coming year.

Last edited by Larssen (2020-06-24 15:33:40)

SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+635|3712
I got an alert from NYT: 1.5 million new unemployment claims. The East Coast and early states to get hit with COVID are starting to reopen though. Those states paid their pound of flesh already.
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
Larssen
Member
+99|1880
Highest unemployment rate in the history of your country. Jay is right when he says this is bad, but it's going to take a while until the real extent of the damage becomes apparent.

Perhaps it'll be a good argument for better labour protection laws, corporate responsibility and a little more human-centric business continuity management in the years ahead.

Sadly I'm almost sure dear Jay would oppose any such improvements..
SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+635|3712
Jay would argue the entire problem is too much labor protection laws and corporate regulation.
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|5350|London, England
I would argue that it's too much panic and too little competence.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
uziq
Member
+492|3444
That all sounds frighteningly prescient. Having sleep-walked into a health crisis, the government is about to sleepwalk into an unemployment crisis. Britain’s employment rate stood at a record level going into the pandemic, primarily because there were more women, ethnic minorities, older people, lone parents and immigrants in work. These are the low-paid, low-productivity jobs that are most at threat from the coming storm.

Historians may come to view the great financial crisis of 2008-9 and the great lockdown crisis of 2020-21 as a single event. There was no fundamental change to the failed model that led to the banks nearly going bust in 2008, merely a set of sticking plaster solutions, including the creation of millions of insecure jobs.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr … lough-jobs
Larssen
Member
+99|1880
How is the insecure job economy the banks' fault? Did the banks facilitate the reality in which Amazon delivery drivers have to be self employed, to name one example?

Our economic system is fucked and the banks are but one part in that equation. You may also point the finger at western governments in the 1990s and 2000s undermining what all the labour unions had achieved in decades before (not always undeservingly), but why was this considered necessary in the first place? To remain competitive in a global marketplace where our production capacities and basic services were getting outsourced to India, China etc. I know we all dislike the banks but they're not all that directly related to what's going on now. Also, nothing I said above was untrue: the low quality subprime mortgages are no longer a viable investment option, the administrative fuck-up that happened in partial digitalisation of the systems controlling these securities were symptomatic of the time and remediated, in Europe we've established more controls and oversight on government budget reporting to avoid another Greece, there's more intervention mechanisms and funds available.. I could go on.

We've certainly done quite a number of things, but as always and particularly in consensus-driven governments only enough to prepare for the crisis that has already passed. If we get out of corona with the same governmental systems intact you'll see the exact same thing happen in response: we'll start creating crisis mechanisms for a pandemic-like event and addressing only the issues that sprung up due to that event. Foresight is hard to come by, and if present, it will still be underfunded.

Anyway I disagree that 'historians may come to view it as a single event'. No dude. Yes of course you can draw a line from both crisis to one another and you'll see that fundamental issues in the marketplace and western economic models persisted, but we're not exactly going to blur the eurocrisis with a pandemic.....

Last edited by Larssen (2020-06-25 13:40:12)

SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+635|3712
The Great Recession will probably go down in history like the Panic of 1893. Little remembered though substantial.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1893
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
Jay
Bork! Bork! Bork!
+2,006|5350|London, England

Larssen wrote:

How is the insecure job economy the banks' fault? Did the banks facilitate the reality in which Amazon delivery drivers have to be self employed, to name one example?

Our economic system is fucked and the banks are but one part in that equation. You may also point the finger at western governments in the 1990s and 2000s undermining what all the labour unions had achieved in decades before (not always undeservingly), but why was this considered necessary in the first place? To remain competitive in a global marketplace where our production capacities and basic services were getting outsourced to India, China etc. I know we all dislike the banks but they're not all that directly related to what's going on now. Also, nothing I said above was untrue: the low quality subprime mortgages are no longer a viable investment option, the administrative fuck-up that happened in partial digitalisation of the systems controlling these securities were symptomatic of the time and remediated, in Europe we've established more controls and oversight on government budget reporting to avoid another Greece, there's more intervention mechanisms and funds available.. I could go on.

We've certainly done quite a number of things, but as always and particularly in consensus-driven governments only enough to prepare for the crisis that has already passed. If we get out of corona with the same governmental systems intact you'll see the exact same thing happen in response: we'll start creating crisis mechanisms for a pandemic-like event and addressing only the issues that sprung up due to that event. Foresight is hard to come by, and if present, it will still be underfunded.

Anyway I disagree that 'historians may come to view it as a single event'. No dude. Yes of course you can draw a line from both crisis to one another and you'll see that fundamental issues in the marketplace and western economic models persisted, but we're not exactly going to blur the eurocrisis with a pandemic.....
Labor unions would've done nothing to save this economy or stem the destruction. Being a member of a union does fuckall to save your job when the company you work for goes bankrupt due to a government mandated shutdown. This entire conversation is ridiculous.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
Larssen
Member
+99|1880
Labour unions were a vitally important political force in Europe until about the 80s-90s and many of our benefits were due to their negotiations. I have over 30 PTO/vacation days. I have a 36 hr contract (I work more but still). My boss can't just arbitrarily fire me. My notice period in case of contract termination is legally about 2 or 3 months or so. There's laws on overtime compensation. My employer is required to contribute to my retirement plan. Minimum wage here, while still low, is a living wage. All these contractual benefits the result of labour unions campaigning for them.

Of course employers have plenty benefits as well, but they have been forced to consider the human aspect of their business alongside $$$, it's something that has shaped society. When the pandemic hit work & pay shortage was quickly arranged including gov. compensation so that those out of work due to the pandemic could still be retained by the employers. Unemployment benefits are calculated from around 70% of previous monthly wages until a maximum that is still very generous, and can be called on for an entire year, providing for those who do get out of work.

The end result is a society far more resilient to shock events like this one. Whereas you're looking at 14% unemployment, ours is barely over 5%.

There's a lot of logical reasons why unions are no longer as big or relevant as they were 30 years ago but the legacy is still there.

Last edited by Larssen (2020-06-26 04:18:11)

Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,810|6098|eXtreme to the maX

Jay wrote:

Labor unions would've done nothing to save this economy or stem the destruction.
No they wouldn't, its not their function.

Its not the function of corporations to 'save the economy' either, amazingly enough they also work in their own selfish interests.

Last edited by Dilbert_X (2020-06-26 22:43:04)

Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй!
uziq
Member
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https://newleftreview.org/issues/II123/ … ng-plunder

2 0 0 8
2 0 2 0

Some $4.586 trillion, roughly 75 per cent of the total $6.286 trillion derived directly and indirectly from cares Act money, would go for the ‘care’ of the country’s biggest and best-off companies. By contrast, as unemployment soared, just $603 billion in total was allocated for direct cash payments to individuals and families ($300 billion), extra unemployment insurance ($260 billion), and student loans ($43 billion).

[...]

To ensure that serious superintendence of the Fed’s actions would not take place, the progenitors of the cares Act adopted essentially the same structure of oversight that had been used for the 2008 bailout of the financial sector. As in the case of the earlier rescue, the Act established inspector generals and several boards to oversee the lending. But, as before, these bodies were only authorized to report abuses, not to prevent or rectify them.footnote9 The cares Act rendered any public scrutiny and shaming of the authorities that the official overseers might attempt all the more difficult by granting the Fed the right to hold its meetings in secret and keep its minutes to itself, immunizing it for the remainder of 2020 from the requirements of the Freedom of Information Act.

[...]

The equivalent of two and a half times us annual corporate profits, or about 20 per cent of us annual gdp, was authorized to be dispensed without undue surveillance and with no strings attached.
gulp

As House Democrat Richard Neal blandly and unselfconsciously explained, the bailout ‘has been described as a stimulus’ but it is ‘more accurately’ for ‘stability and relief’.footnote34 It is better understood, that is, as an instrument for enabling non-financial and financial businesses to continue along the path they had already been taking—to the extent indeed they wished to do so—by placing money in their hands without conditions on how they should spend it, rather than burdened by conditions designed to set them on another path. The policies pursued by the us political-economic establishment were in no way seeking to incentivize American corporations to undertake increased employment and new investment aimed at reviving the economy—a stimulus programme—let alone to induce them to take steps with the goal of revitalizing the economy by undertaking a new wave of statist intervention in the interests of greater productivity and competitiveness—a programme of re-structuring. Neither of these paths was even contemplated, despite the dire condition of the economy and the disaster affecting large swathes of the population.

The persistence of such a hands-off approach to the economy’s leading producers and financiers on the part of the bipartisan political-economic establishment at a time of such profound crisis seems so extreme as to require further explanation. How could they continue with such policies, when the needs of the population are so overpowering and money to deal with them so scarce in general, yet overflowing the pockets of top corporate managers and shareholders? Still and all, in view of the lack of controversy within any section of the bipartisan elite concerning this approach, of how pervasive it has been across the entire ruling class, and how long it has gone unchallenged, the opposite question is perhaps even more apposite. How could they possibly break from it—or, indeed, refrain from extending and deepening it?

Remarkably, even as the Fed was undertaking its massive handout to top managers and shareholders by way of its rescue of the corporate bond market, Congress was making another big gift to pretty much the same people by inserting $174 billion worth of new tax giveaways into the cares Act, directed mainly at large companies and rich individuals. The identical tax breaks had been regarded as too excessive even for Trump’s $1.5 trillion tax-cut bonanza of 2017, but they were now adopted under cover of the pandemic. In the words of Senate Finance Committee Chairman Charles Grassley, these ‘bipartisan tax provisions . . . threw a much needed financial lifeline’ to businesses, ‘to give them the best chance to survive’.
With the us economy performing so very badly, as it has been doing for such an extended period, the bipartisan political establishment and its leading policymakers have come to the stark conclusion, consciously or unconsciously, that the only way that they can assure the reproduction of the non-financial and financial corporations, their top managers and shareholders—and indeed top leaders of the major parties, closely connected with them—is to intervene politically in the asset markets and throughout the whole economy, so as to underwrite the upward re-distribution of wealth to them by directly political means. This is, indeed, what Congress and the Fed have accomplished with their large-scale and extended corporate bailout in the face of plunging production, employment and profits. The politically driven upward redistribution of wealth to sustain central elements of a partially transformed dominant capitalist class, as the response to a seemingly inexorable process of economic deterioration, has been at the heart of the politico-economic evolution which has brought us to this point. What we have had for a long epoch is worsening economic decline met by intensifying political predation.

Last edited by uziq (2020-06-28 13:23:14)

Larssen
Member
+99|1880
Interest rates were not cut to stimulate spending, that's a misreading. Securities are being bought and rates cut to prevent bankruptcies. This was already moving along before corona hit. It's why I've been saying from the start that in the aftermath of the coronavirus we should figure out legislation or controls to corporate resilience esp. for multinationals. Subject them to stress testing and demand financial insights to ensure they have enough liquidity and do not engage in overly risky behaviour such as stock buybacks to artificially inflate their market position.

For context see this article published october 2019: https://theconversation.com/why-the-fed … sis-126096

The U.S. Federal Reserve is stuck between an apparently booming economy and a financial crisis that might be right around the corner.

That’s why its decision to cut interest rates by another quarter point on Oct. 30 – its third reduction in as many months – seems so odd. Lowering rates when the economy is as strong as the numbers make it out to be is practically unheard of. And, according to textbook economics, lowering interest rates during a boom is a sure recipe for disaster.

The trouble is, as someone who studies financial booms and busts, I know that not lowering rates may be even worse. That’s because the corporate sector is dangerously over-indebted, creating a financial bubble.

A hike in borrowing costs could kick-start a cascade of bankruptcies in a financial contagion that would derail the U.S. economy.

Troubles below the surface
On the surface, the U.S. economy appears to be humming along just fine.

Unemployment’s at a half-century low. Inflation is near its target of 2%. And, at about 125 months, the U.S. is charting its longest economic expansion since at least the 1850s.

Look under the hood, however, and things look very troublesome.

Numerous trade wars have cost U.S. companies, farmers and consumers dearly. The manufacturing industry – once America’s job engine and ostensibly the sector the trade war was supposed to support – is seeing its worst year since 2009.

And looking abroad, the situation is even worse, with the global economy slowing and the International Monetary Fund warning there’s little ammunition left to fight a recession.

The corporate debt bubble
While that’s bad, we haven’t gotten to the scary part yet.

A key cause of the 2008 financial crisis was too much debt in the housing market, much of which ultimately went bad.

Today, the problem is in corporate America. Since 2008, when the Fed drove its target interest rate to a record-low 0.25%, markets have been flooded with cheap money. That was too much to resist for U.S. companies, which went on a borrowing binge.

All American companies are currently sitting on a record US$15.5 trillion in debt, equivalent to about two-thirds of U.S. GDP. Unfortunately, this debt was not primarily used to finance expansion and growth but more commonly to jack up stock prices through dividends, stock buybacks and acquisitions.

The problem will come when the party stops – when interest rates begin rising and companies, particular the ones that took more risks, can’t refinance or pay back their debts. This is what turns a credit boom into a financial crisis, as happened in 2008.

The IMF estimates that half of corporate debt – excluding small businesses – is high risk, or junk rated, which has a much higher chance of default than investment grade debt.

What makes the situation even worse is that $660 billion of companies’ so-called leveraged debt is held in collateralized loan obligations that have been sold to a variety of investors and financial institutions. While this has helped keep rates even lower, a rise in delinquencies and defaults would cause losses in this market as well and a stampede of selling by investors.

The downward cycle
As this cycle spirals, it spurs rising unemployment, a drop in consumer spending, more bankruptcies and – if it’s not stopped – an economic recession. This is what happened in 2008 when subprime borrowers couldn’t pay back their mortgages in large numbers.

In other words, in this environment of high – and in some pockets highly risky – corporate debt and faltering profits, the slightest interest rate move in the wrong direction has the potential to transform debt into junk worth pennies on the dollar.

This is why the Fed has no choice but to keep lowering interest rates and keep them there. The gamble is that companies will use the breathing space to get their houses in order.

If they don’t, we could be in for a world of pain.

Last edited by Larssen (2020-06-28 14:18:27)

uziq
Member
+492|3444
sorry didn't realise those images were so big on my phone.

the first link is a much better read.
Larssen
Member
+99|1880
Don't have time to read all of it but read parts of it. I don't see the US fed having any other choice than to cut rates & buy securities. It's the only thing they can do under these circumstances. If they don't, the economy will collapse top down.
uziq
Member
+492|3444
so the fed can print money for the corporate bond market but the government can only give $1600 to someone for 3 months or whatever?

o K
Larssen
Member
+99|1880
To add on I'm increasingly convinced we are permanently heading towards societies with higher unemployment numbers and a reduced middle class, some migrating upwards, most downwards. Seems to be the logic of our globalised economies.
uziq
Member
+492|3444
great!!! it's inevitable! a law of nature. the centrists have it wrapped.
SuperJail Warden
Gone Forever
+635|3712
The western world needs to enact Eco-fascism and invade China to annex living space for Millennial and Zoomer families.
https://i.imgur.com/xsoGn9X.jpg
Larssen
Member
+99|1880
Not having a solution at hand is something other than having it wrapped. Between automation, the increased skills gaps, tax & labour offshoring, yet increased economic interdependence & the very real economic power of global corporations - it's difficult finding a solid way forward in the west.
uziq
Member
+492|3444
so you're okay with a central bank printing $7 trillion to continue inflating the values of corporate assets and to continue bond trading but think it's impossible for the richest nation on earth to instate, say, a universal basic income? you know, putting money into the economy that will then be spent and used productively as opposed to, er, filtered upwards to corporate boards.
uziq
Member
+492|3444
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ … ic-economy

Only 6% of the public want to return to the same type of economy as before the coronavirus pandemic, according to new polling, as trade unions, business groups and religious and civic leaders unite in calling for a fairer financial recovery.

The former head of the civil service Bob Kerslake, the former archbishop of Canterbury Rowan Williams, the heads of the Trades Union Congress, Confederation of British Industry and the British Chambers of Commerce are among 350 influential figures wanting a “fairer and greener” economic rebuilding, and believe there is no going back to the past.

Their call comes as a YouGov poll shows that 31% of people want to see big changes in the way the economy is run coming out of the crisis, with a further 28% wanting to see moderate changes and only 6% of people wanting to see no changes.

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