Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,810|6076|eXtreme to the maX
The Pfizer vaccine was found to be 88% effective at stopping symptomatic disease from the Indian variant two weeks after the second dose, compared with 93% effectiveness against the Kent variant.

The AstraZeneca jab was 60% effective against the Indian variant, compared with 66% against the Kent variant.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-57214596

Probably we don't know exactly where we are, its inevitable the virus will mutate faster than we can update vaccines - like, you know, all the other viruses.
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unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+2,053|6742|PNW

https://www.verywellhealth.com/vaccines … ts-5186720

bottom line wrote:

The preliminary results of two studies have shown that the B.1.617.1 and B.1.617.2 variants of the COVID-19 virus are more resistant to vaccines. However, the available COVID vaccines are still very effective against them. Making sure that everyone is fully vaccinated is still the best way to stop the pandemic.
I feel like the forum has already been over this. We're probably going to have new vaccines like, you know, ones for certain other viruses. Booster shots are likely going to be in the near future.
uziq
Member
+492|3423

Dilbert_X wrote:

The Pfizer vaccine was found to be 88% effective at stopping symptomatic disease from the Indian variant two weeks after the second dose, compared with 93% effectiveness against the Kent variant.

The AstraZeneca jab was 60% effective against the Indian variant, compared with 66% against the Kent variant.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-57214596

Probably we don't know exactly where we are, its inevitable the virus will mutate faster than we can update vaccines - like, you know, all the other viruses.
‘like all the other viruses’? viruses come in a range of mutability and vaccine evasion. some change fast and often; others are stable. it depends a lot on the structure of the virus.

more scientifically illiterate claptrap from our resident engineer.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,810|6076|eXtreme to the maX
Wuhan Lab Flu seems pretty mutable, increasing in transmissibility by a factor of four and starting to out-evolve vaccines in barely 12 months.

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/1050D/production/_118892866_r_variant_comparison_2x640-nc.png

Meanwhile travel junkies are actually going nuts

Self-confessed aviation geek Nik Sennhauser misses air travel so much that he is recreating the inflight meals he once enjoyed to remind him of good times before the pandemic.

Before Covid, Nik, who lives in Glasgow, would spend much of his free time looking for flight deals.

He loved the airports and airlines experience so much he thought nothing of flying to the US for a weekend trip.

"I once got a flight from Edinburgh to Boston for £150 return," he told BBC Radio Scotland's Our Lives with Michelle McManus.

"I took the Friday off and on the Thursday after work got on a plane and flew there, had some lobster rolls and dipped my feet in the sea - and then got back on a plane."

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/16C21/production/_118871239_nikgrahamone.jpg
Air travel is one of the most damaging things, if alcohol is bad and deserves a 300% tax then so does air travel, not a raft of exemptions and subsidies.

I'd slap a 200% environment tax and a 100% pandemic tax on it, that would put a crimp on these selfish prats and start paying for the damage.
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RTHKI
mmmf mmmf mmmf
+1,736|6707|Oxferd Ohire
everyone not rich loses again
https://i.imgur.com/tMvdWFG.png
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,810|6076|eXtreme to the maX
Why does everyone think jumping on a plane at the drop of a hat is an important part of life?

Flying half way round the world for a lobster roll - fucking retarded.
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uziq
Member
+492|3423
transmissibility is not the same as mutability. measles is many times more transmissible than covid and yet we safely and successfully vaccinate children for it all over the globe. whoda thunk it?

covid’s mechanism is pretty simple and we have multiple vaccines that work via several different ways to disable the virus. no spike protein mutation has rendered the basic vaccine ineffective. a 50-60% success rate (down from 80% or 70%) is still exceptionally good performance for a vaccine in any context.

many people are working on just this problem and yet you scaremonger about vaccines.

ironically you make a self-defeating case.  ‘the virus is spreading loads, which is putting working vaccines at risk; therefore i won’t get a vaccine and think people should choose for themselves’. errr, fucking what? if your basic thesis is transmissibility is the main risk, you should be encouraging everyone to get a working vaccine ASAP.

what’s your suggestion instead? moan about travellers and tourists and expect people to lockdown forever. what’s the endgame in your scenario, exactly, when you’re okay with half of the population not-complying ‘because ermagawwwd blood clots’?

thick as mince.
unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+2,053|6742|PNW

News cycle's been leading into that stuff by headlining and sensationalizing the risks, and only (if ever) mentioning the "however the chances are low and the benefits outweigh them" much later into the writing. While probably just going for the clicks, it still feeds into the anti-vax 'ganda. Dilbs seems to have been swept up in in it, and is in denial about having been.

A different group of people I know have been touting the vaccines, but won't get one themselves. Probably not confidence-boosting for other people in their circles.
uziq
Member
+492|3423
imagine having to explain tolerable risks to an engineer.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,810|6076|eXtreme to the maX

uziq wrote:

transmissibility is not the same as mutability. measles is many times more transmissible than covid and yet we safely and successfully vaccinate children for it all over the globe. whoda thunk it?

covid’s mechanism is pretty simple and we have multiple vaccines that work via several different ways to disable the virus. no spike protein mutation has rendered the basic vaccine ineffective. a 50-60% success rate (down from 80% or 70%) is still exceptionally good performance for a vaccine in any context.
Thank you Professor Literaturegrad

The infection rate and vaccine resistance are changing very rapidly thanks to the high mutability.
70-80% dropping to 50-60% is huge, its the difference between a vaccine being useful and useless, and over a very short space of time.

Measles has a low mutability hence a 50 year old vaccine is still effective, dur, completely different.

For all your supposed reading its remarkable how ignorant of basic information and lacking understanding of simple words you are.
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Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,810|6076|eXtreme to the maX

uziq wrote:

imagine having to explain tolerable risks to an engineer.
Imagine not understanding that not everyone has the same opinion as you.

Do I want to take a risk to my health and get a vaccine which is ~50% effective, and steadily trending even lower, and therefore probably a waste of time for me and the community?

When we can just keep the borders shut for another year?

Seems most of my fellow citizens agree.

In March 2020, the government closed the borders. It barred most foreigners from entering the country and put caps on total arrivals to combat Covid. Mandatory 14-day quarantine and snap lockdowns have also been used to control the virus spread.

The measures are extreme, and among the strictest in the world.

But they've worked. Australia regularly sees months without a single case in the community, and it has recorded fewer than 1,000 deaths in the pandemic.

Given that, the strict border controls have proven tremendously popular. Public polls regularly report 75-80% approval ratings for keeping the door shut.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-57224635

Last edited by Dilbert_X (2021-06-13 20:29:58)

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uziq
Member
+492|3423
dilbert most annual flu vaccines are only 50-60% effective and come with a host of side-effects and health risks. still, we widely vaccinate the elderly and at-risk, year on year, for flu. it is uncontroversial for anyone but the most kooky.

you don't understand virology or epidemiology, that is evident enough. i think the world has enough opinionating from illiterate people.

50% effectivity per single booster shot is not considered 'poor' performance. in fact, that's considered good enough for federal approval.

the world is not australia and new zealand and keeping borders closed and people in strict lockdown for another year, when we have already seen vaccination's positive effects elsewhere, is not a good strategy. NHS England is already reporting that widespread vaccination has effectively introduced a break between new cases recorded and hospitalizations/deaths. our 'rubbish' 60-70% effective vaccines are doing their damn job, in other words.

the 'risk to your health' as a middle-aged male in taking a widely tested vaccine are somewhat less than the risk to your health you accept when you get drunk, or drive a car to work. but ok. it's much more reasonable to shut down society for another 12 months.

https://www.economist.com/asia/2021/05/ … 9-for-ever
uziq
Member
+492|3423

Dilbert_X wrote:

uziq wrote:

transmissibility is not the same as mutability. measles is many times more transmissible than covid and yet we safely and successfully vaccinate children for it all over the globe. whoda thunk it?

covid’s mechanism is pretty simple and we have multiple vaccines that work via several different ways to disable the virus. no spike protein mutation has rendered the basic vaccine ineffective. a 50-60% success rate (down from 80% or 70%) is still exceptionally good performance for a vaccine in any context.
Thank you Professor Literaturegrad

The infection rate and vaccine resistance are changing very rapidly thanks to the high mutability.
70-80% dropping to 50-60% is huge, its the difference between a vaccine being useful and useless, and over a very short space of time.

Measles has a low mutability hence a 50 year old vaccine is still effective, dur, completely different.

For all your supposed reading its remarkable how ignorant of basic information and lacking understanding of simple words you are.
i read and publish covid research on a daily basis. you sit at home muttering darkly about indians and vaccine skepticism. let me know when you're getting your information from, you know, scientific journals and current pre-print research and not, er, commentary pieces on BBC news.

i don't think the fact you understand how a trannie works and can use a lathe has much bearing on virology.

the only endgame and exit strategy from this pandemic is widespread vaccination. we won't get anything like 100% effective vaccines, that has never been possible for coronaviruses generally. the initial performance of the first round vaccines, the new possibilities of mRNA, etc, are already small scientific breakthroughs in-themselves. but that isn't good enough for you, apparently. what you are proposing as an alternative – scaremongering about flights and getting angry at selfish tourists – is not smart. australia and new zealand will still need a route to re-opening sooner or later.

what happens in 12 months' time when we are 5 more virus variations down the road? you certainly won't argue for re-opening then, either. let's keep the borders closed for another 5 years maybe? at what point does all this 'scientific rationalism' just become a little pathetic racist's convenient wet dreams about 'keeping foreigners out'?

the ONLY deliverance out of this global pandemic at this point is widespread vaccination. there is no other option. but you are turning down the vaccine for yourself and choosing to moan about ... tourists, instead. who is being more selfish in this scenario? a vaccinated person who gets on a plane or a useful idiot who doesn't want to get vaccinated?

widely deployed vaccines for certain illnesses, like flu, become less effective as time goes on. viruses change and make previous vaccines redundant. but, as i said, the mutations we're are seeing in the fairly simple stucture of covid are not invalidating our vaccine tech. making current 2021 shots less effective, certainly; but we can tweak the vaccines for next year, and the year after that. that is literally what we do for flu, durrr. so far there hasn't been any mutation which has totally confounded the working principle of our vaccines. get a fucking vaccine already.

Last edited by uziq (2021-06-13 21:03:02)

Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,810|6076|eXtreme to the maX

uziq wrote:

dilbert most annual flu vaccines are only 50-60% effective and come with a host of side-effects and health risks. still, we widely vaccinate the elderly and at-risk, year on year, for flu. it is uncontroversial for anyone but the most kooky.

you don't understand virology or epidemiology, that is evident enough. i think the world has enough opinionating from illiterate people.

50% effectivity per single booster shot is not considered 'poor' performance. in fact, that's considered good enough for federal approval.

the world is not australia and new zealand and keeping borders closed and people in strict lockdown for another year, when we have already seen vaccination's positive effects elsewhere, is not a good strategy. NHS England is already reporting that widespread vaccination has effectively introduced a break between new cases recorded and hospitalizations/deaths. our 'rubbish' 60-70% effective vaccines are doing their damn job, in other words.

the 'risk to your health' as a middle-aged male in taking a widely tested vaccine are somewhat less than the risk to your health you accept when you get drunk, or drive a car to work. but ok. it's much more reasonable to shut down society for another 12 months.

https://www.economist.com/asia/2021/05/ … 9-for-ever
We aren't in shut down here, borders are shut, thats about it.

Since March 2020 pretty well every case and ensuing lockdown has come in thanks to 'returned travellers', at this point thats mostly people who left for spurious reasons or who were never really resident.

I'd be fine with keeping the borders shut and rolling out vaccines sensibly - travel addicts be-damned, most Australians agree.
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uziq
Member
+492|3423
how are vaccines not being rolled out 'sensibly'? you have a wealth of data at this point.

the pfizer vaccine, after 2nd dose, is still highly effective even against the delta variant (88% effectivity versus 93% original wuhan strain, iirc). there's really no reason not to get it, especially on the spurious grounds that 'it's taking a risk for an ineffective vaccine'. no. the risk of blood clotting is 1 in 10 million and the effectivity rate is very good for any vaccine tech.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,810|6076|eXtreme to the maX

uziq wrote:

i read and publish covid research on a daily basis.
Cummings thought he was an expert on everything, look how that turned out.
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uziq
Member
+492|3423
i've never claimed to be an expert. but i do read the statistics and results. something which you seem pretty vague about.

the vaccines are our best tool, and they work. your innumeracy when it comes to virology, interpreting 50-60% effectivity rates as a 'calamity' when, actually, in a general population that's pretty good going, speaks volumes.

as i said for the third time now, there haven't been any mutations to completely confound our vaccine tech. we understand the virus very well and have devised several different vaccines to mitigate against it. you refusing to get one because 'the virus is DefEatiNg our Vaccines!!!' and 'the RiskS are 2 high!' is stupid beyond measure.

but hey, you're allowed an 'opinion'. come to think of it, wasn't cummings, bereft of any expertise, merely giving his opinion on everything?
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,810|6076|eXtreme to the maX

uziq wrote:

wasn't cummings, bereft of any expertise, merely giving his opinion on everything?
So your opinion is as valid as mine, thanks.
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uziq
Member
+492|3423
but i'm not giving my opinion on vaccines, am i? i'm telling you the facts.

funny that our resident scientist can't tell the difference between scientific results and his own emotive fear response to something.

every single vaccine or medical treatment has risks. you wouldn't refuse any number of routine operations, root canals, antibiotic treatments, etc. on the same basis. but a vaccine with an infinitesimal chance of causing blood clotting in certain very specifically at-risk groups is somehow TOO DANGEROUS! again, facts and feelings.

amazing that the person who has consistently railed against the stupidity of the general population, blaming every part of humanity for the covid disaster, always taking the hardest line on prevention measures ... is now a vaccine skeptic. there is no other way out of the pandemic!

part of me suspects you're really just enjoying this. being able to tut-tut at everyone, sitting at home with your sedentary, asocial lifestyle, accusing everyone else of selfishness and idiocy. being able to constantly elevate yourself to a moral high-ground, deflecting back to 'muhhh opinioN!' whenever anyone confronts you with statistics or results. you're enjoying this pandemic way too much.
unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+2,053|6742|PNW

Opinion is the great unassailable bastion for people who cherry pick things to disagree with science about. Works great for climate change denial.

I hope dilbert's opinions don't wander too far from sound engineering while he's designing some lynchpin device that could get people killed if done improperly. Aside from that, imagine becoming part of the problem after criticizing your fellow citizens for over a year.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,810|6076|eXtreme to the maX

uziq wrote:

but i'm not giving my opinion on vaccines, am i? i'm telling you the facts.
Nope, you're way off and out of date in your figures.

At this point no-one expects to kill this thing with vaccines.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2

With falling efficacy of vaccines and continuing mutation we have no chance.
https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(20)32318-7/fulltext

Closing borders is our best option at this point and probably in the long term.

Just think, we could have nipped this in the bud, all the rest of the world had to do was copy Australia and this thing would be done.

But no, stupid people wanted to carry on travelling and here we are.
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unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+2,053|6742|PNW

omg..
uziq
Member
+492|3423
covid didn’t mutate because people travelled. it spread rapidly in countries with inadequate lockdown measures of their own. you don’t need a plane to create an indian variant.

you are completely illiterate on this topic. multiple vaccines have proven that the ‘delta’ variant can still be substantially mitigated by current vaccines. we will develop booster shots, with updated serology, next year. just like we do for flu. it can be contained this way. the problem isn’t one of vaccines per se but of (global) distribution and collective wherewithal. not much point hoping for vaccines to solve things when half of humanity remain outside of help or are ‘vaccine skeptics’. those are the challenges we face at present – NOT the vaccines being kaputt.

i have never spoken in favour of ‘eradicating’ covid nor in support of theories of ‘herd immunity’. that generally has never been an option for coronaviruses in the past and i don’t think vaccination is going to make covid into polio v2. HOWEVER, i did say it’s the only meaningful strategy we have to ‘exit’ this pandemic emergency … much as the same as your fucking links say. the nature article literally says the benefits of vaccination should NOT be downplayed. meanwhile you’re saying you won’t be vaccinated and we should just ban planes forever … errr ok … ?!?

vaccines are quite clearly the best exit strategy. minor quibbles about blood clots are NOT cataclysmic problems with our current vaccine options. you are absolutely retarded.

Last edited by uziq (2021-06-14 11:05:41)

Larssen
Member
+99|1858
In a way life has to be wonderful if you can always circle back to the same answer. Pandemic? Close borders. Wars abroad? Close borders. Refugees? Close borders. Criminals? Deport across borders. Borders? Preferably medieval walls and a moat + 24/7 drone surveillance. You shall not pass, ever.

Dilbert is probably one of the most territorial people you can possibly find. The man is all instinct. Like a toad in his favourite little burrow. Or shrek, but in this film he'll truly never leave the swamp (or let anyone in).
uziq
Member
+492|3423
i just can't believe the 'rationalist' who has blamed tourists and hipsters for covid is now a vaccine skeptic.

all those months berating jay for his denialism, for not wearing a mask in public, for not taking social distancing precautions.

but now it's good-o to avoid being vaccinated. the pandemic will just burn itself out if we close borders for another 5 years. or something.

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