I'm visiting the US in early February, and I was wondering when the best time to convert my money into dollars would be. It'd most likely be from Euros as they're so strong right now, but I could change pounds as well. Should I change my money now, whilst the dollar is weak, or hold out until the new year?
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I doubt it will be any different in February than it is now ... but then again you never know ...
Wait behind the line ..............................................................
I am no expert and this is all speculation really, but with the US showing positive GDP growth for the first time in a long while, shouldn't this strengthen the dollar?
No, not really. Currency value is dependent on many things, not least of which is if they are printing money to pay off debts. Adding to the money supply lowers the value.Jenspm wrote:
I am no expert and this is all speculation really, but with the US showing positive GDP growth for the first time in a long while, shouldn't this strengthen the dollar?
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/nationa … _large.gif
The value of the Euro has been steadily climbing all year vs the dollar so you should probably wait until right before you leave.
Last edited by JohnG@lt (2009-11-24 07:38:45)
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
-Frederick Bastiat
Tricky, currencies are so hard to predict.
You can hedge a bit by changing half now and half later.
You can hedge a bit by changing half now and half later.
Fuck Israel
I'm putting a fair bit of currency pegged to the euro into dollars no later than February myself, and most analysts have been saying that the euro is forecast to gain against the dollar until the end of Q1 CY2010. I'm betting on holding out until February, though of course the market can change at any time.
Keep an eye on EURUSD.
Keep an eye on EURUSD.
Last edited by mikkel (2009-11-24 14:12:51)
I'm planning to convert Aussie dollars to U$ and GBP sometime soonish, probably next month or so.
The A$ is insanley high at present, and I don't believe the talk about it going higher.
I'm probably wrong but who knows.
The A$ is insanley high at present, and I don't believe the talk about it going higher.
I'm probably wrong but who knows.
Fuck Israel
That graph looks stable... It might've peaked now.mikkel wrote:
I'm putting a fair bit of currency pegged to the euro into dollars no later than February myself, and most analysts have been saying that the euro is forecast to gain against the dollar until the end of Q1 CY2010. I'm betting on holding out until February, though of course the market can change at any time.
Keep an eye on EURUSD.
http://shinn.me/pictures/temp/EURUSD.png
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
-Frederick Bastiat
Unless you're dealing with massive amounts it won't amount to much anyway, the difference. Just do whatever is most convenient.
It's not a huge difference, but 1.4 to 1.5 will make the difference of 60 dollars or so in the amounts I'm trading.Mekstizzle wrote:
Unless you're dealing with massive amounts it won't amount to much anyway, the difference. Just do whatever is most convenient.
Currency can be massively volatile. In the three months between July and October 2008, the dollar gained 30% on the Euro. That's a big difference in a short time, even if you're only exchanging enough to spend while on a vacation.Mekstizzle wrote:
Unless you're dealing with massive amounts it won't amount to much anyway, the difference. Just do whatever is most convenient.
Have a look at the quoted Forward Rates. That should give an indication of expected exchange rates at a certain point in the future. The forward rate is dependent on relative interest rates between countries. For example, if the USA Federal Bank announces that it will increase the Federal Funds Rate, and thus bank interest rates will increase, there is a higher incentive for foreign investment in America (as foreign businesses will get more money from investing). As these foreign companies require US Dollars for their business, demand for USD increases and thus the USD appreciates. Soo.. have a look at expected announcements by both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank regarding interest rates..ghettoperson wrote:
I'm visiting the US in early February, and I was wondering when the best time to convert my money into dollars would be. It'd most likely be from Euros as they're so strong right now, but I could change pounds as well. Should I change my money now, whilst the dollar is weak, or hold out until the new year?
However, since there are so many more factors that go into FX rates, if you can get an amount you are happy with, then go for it.
If you're happy with the rate now to pay for your trip then might be worth taking it.
If the rate improves you haven't actually lost anything apart from opportunity.
If the rate worsens you will actually lose money.
Go 50:50, you get the average, not too disastrous.
Go 75:25, if it worsens maybe you can pare back your spending a bit and not convert any more, if it improves you can convert some more.
If the rate improves you haven't actually lost anything apart from opportunity.
If the rate worsens you will actually lose money.
Go 50:50, you get the average, not too disastrous.
Go 75:25, if it worsens maybe you can pare back your spending a bit and not convert any more, if it improves you can convert some more.
Fuck Israel
500 euros will get me 750 dollars, I assume in the US that will go quite a long way?
Yeah in Vegas that's about a night's worth of fun. Not including gambling.ghettoperson wrote:
500 euros will get me 750 dollars, I assume in the US that will go quite a long way?
Nah, serious though that's good for a weekend if you don't plan on gambling a lot.
Supposedly bottle service goes for about $500 for four people, so three nights of that is ok. Gambling will be done but kept under $100 I think.
Do your exchange today if you can. There's a big uproar in the financial world today and there is talk that Japan's National Bank is about to start buying dollars in order to raise the price against the yen. Yesterday was better but today is the day.
"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat
-Frederick Bastiat
The pound is low as shit right now. After the recession it definitely will pick up a lot.Dilbert_X wrote:
I'm planning to convert Aussie dollars to U$ and GBP sometime soonish, probably next month or so.
The A$ is insanley high at present, and I don't believe the talk about it going higher.
I'm probably wrong but who knows.
good luck with that, lulz.ghettoperson wrote:
Gambling will be done but kept under $100 I think.
The pound my be low but the US dollar is even lower.Cybargs wrote:
The pound is low as shit right now. After the recession it definitely will pick up a lot.Dilbert_X wrote:
I'm planning to convert Aussie dollars to U$ and GBP sometime soonish, probably next month or so.
The A$ is insanley high at present, and I don't believe the talk about it going higher.
I'm probably wrong but who knows.
Historically, I'd say that the sterling is doing worse than the US dollar.DrunkFace wrote:
The pound my be low but the US dollar is even lower.Cybargs wrote:
The pound is low as shit right now. After the recession it definitely will pick up a lot.Dilbert_X wrote:
I'm planning to convert Aussie dollars to U$ and GBP sometime soonish, probably next month or so.
The A$ is insanley high at present, and I don't believe the talk about it going higher.
I'm probably wrong but who knows.
I think you're reading your own graph wrong.mikkel wrote:
Historically, I'd say that the sterling is doing worse than the US dollar.DrunkFace wrote:
The pound my be low but the US dollar is even lower.Cybargs wrote:
The pound is low as shit right now. After the recession it definitely will pick up a lot.
http://shinn.me/eurusdgbp.png
Graph wrote:
EURUSD +33.75
EURGBP +29.48
Sorry, but I think you're reading my post wrong. I'm referring to the historical trend. Spot rates aren't useful in establishing trends. The numbers you quote are a result of displaying the full range of data in the graph. In the beginning of the dataset, the data points for both elements start at 0% per definition. That does not display any correlation to earlier data, and therefore isn't relevant.DrunkFace wrote:
I think you're reading your own graph wrong.mikkel wrote:
Historically, I'd say that the sterling is doing worse than the US dollar.DrunkFace wrote:
The pound my be low but the US dollar is even lower.
http://shinn.me/eurusdgbp.pngGraph wrote:
EURUSD +33.75
EURGBP +29.48
Last edited by mikkel (2009-11-27 11:54:45)
I have tried currency trading with small amounts of money, usually ending up losing the money in 6 months or so. Its not for me, very volatile and unpredictable. If you think its your thing give it a go, but beware, even the experts get it wrong a lot of the time.
Only other advice: always use a stop loss.
Good luck.
Only other advice: always use a stop loss.
Good luck.
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